Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

EUR Inflation Watch – The ECB forecast is OFF by >1.5%-points for Q1

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We interestingly see a pattern where Germany is used to predict MoM consensus elsewhere in December.</li><li>German consensus numbers look relatively sensible, while Spanish numbers are off.</li><li>Net/net, the ECB will likely get another dovish surprise relative to their base case, and we see more of such upcoming surprises in Q1-2024.</li></ul>

We interestingly see a pattern where Germany is used to predict MoM consensus elsewhere in December.German consensus numbers look relatively sensible, while Spanish numbers are off.Net/net, the ECB will likely get another dovish surprise relative to their base case, and we see more of such upcoming surprises in Q1-2024.

EUR-flation Watch: Consensus is OFF (again)