Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In this piece, we are going to compare the ECB and the Fed case systemically on a set of important parameters to ultimately conclude with our base-case and suggested allocations on the back of it.</li><li>We will assess the cases on: 1) Inflation 2) Growth 3) Labour 4) Liquidity</li><li>Inflation Watch: The ECB is realistically much closer to claiming victory. As we have noted since the early summer, we find the probability of sub-2% inflation in the Euro area much larger than in the US.</li></ul>

In this piece, we are going to compare the ECB and the Fed case systemically on a set of important parameters to ultimately conclude with our base-case and suggested allocations on the back of it.We will assess the cases on: 1) Inflation 2) Growth 3) Labour 4) LiquidityInflation Watch: The ECB is realistically much closer to claiming victory. As we have noted since the early summer, we find the probability of sub-2% inflation in the Euro area much larger than in the US.

ECB & Fed Watch: Closing in on ECB Rate Cuts, While the Fed Is Not Done Hiking

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
The world of Macro never fails at keeping us busy and this week I reveal the 10 charts that I currently monitor daily to keep myself up to speed on allocations amidst this turbulence. Enjoy (the ride)! It’s been evident for a while that the diversification effects from US Treasuries are weak and we are now approaching a record high correlation between Equity and Bond returns. 
</li>
<li>If you haven’t already altered your portfolio composition, it is already overdue as the 60/40 portfolio seems structurally challenged.</li>
</ul>



The world of Macro never fails at keeping us busy and this week I reveal the 10 charts that I currently monitor daily to keep myself up to speed on allocations amidst this turbulence. Enjoy (the ride)!   It’s been evident for a while that the diversification effects from US Treasuries are weak and we are now approaching a record high correlation between Equity and Bond returns. 

If you haven’t already altered your portfolio composition, it is already overdue as the 60/40 portfolio seems structurally challenged.


Steno Signals #70 – 10 Charts You NEED to Monitor in Global Macro

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The CAD is ending the week slightly lower versus the USD. While this week’s data run has looked a bit soft, considering lower than expected the CPI data and today’s Retail Sales report, the broader tone of Canadian economic data continues to run a little warm— data reports are generally running a bit ahead of expectations.</li><li>And even with CPI easing a little in the September month, prices remain elevated and the risk of inflation getting stuck above target remains.</li><li>Factors driving the CAD have negatively shifted this week, however; correlations across a range of variables are strengthening but remain below statistically significant levels. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The CAD is ending the week slightly lower versus the USD. While this week’s data run has looked a bit soft, considering lower than expected the CPI data and today’s Retail Sales report, the broader tone of Canadian economic data continues to run a little warm— data reports are generally running a bit ahead of expectations.And even with CPI easing a little in the September month, prices remain elevated and the risk of inflation getting stuck above target remains.Factors driving the CAD have negatively shifted this week, however; correlations across a range of variables are strengthening but remain below statistically significant levels. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Tone Remains Soft, Focus Turns to BoC

<ul><li>FX Market Update—Risk aversion is the primary characteristic of the markets this morning.</li><li>Global stocks remain soft as investors reduce exposure to equities amid concerns about a weekend escalation of the Israel/Hamas conflict.</li><li>Crude oil prices have picked up a little while major bond markets are mixed; US Treasury yields have eased 4- 5bps from yesterday’s close.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—Risk aversion is the primary characteristic of the markets this morning.Global stocks remain soft as investors reduce exposure to equities amid concerns about a weekend escalation of the Israel/Hamas conflict.Crude oil prices have picked up a little while major bond markets are mixed; US Treasury yields have eased 4- 5bps from yesterday’s close.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Mixed Despite Weak Risk Appetite

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.</li><li>First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.</li><li>One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks</li></ul>

Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

ECB & Fed Watch: Closing in on ECB Rate Cuts, While the Fed Is Not Done Hiking

As we have noted since the early summer, we find the probability of sub-2% inflation in the Euro area much larger than in the US.

Steno Research

Steno Signals #70 – 10 Charts You NEED to Monitor in Global Macro

Happy Sunday from Mallorca and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial. The world of Macro never fails at keeping us busy and this week I reveal...

Steno Research

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Tone Remains Soft, Focus Turns to BoC

Factors driving the CAD have negatively shifted this week, however; correlations across a range of variables are strengthening but remain below...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Mixed Despite Weak Risk Appetite

Global stocks remain soft as investors reduce exposure to equities amid concerns about a weekend escalation of the Israel/Hamas conflict.

Scotiabank

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

I sent Congress an urgent budget request to fund America’s national security needs to support our critical partners, including Israel and...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)