External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The aggregate speculative bearish USD position continued to build this week, widening nearly $4bn to a level just shy of $14bn.</li><li>GBP and CAD had the largest (improving) w/w swings and all of the reporting currencies saw positive w/w changes with the exception of EUR.</li><li>Digging deeper, we note the continued (albeit modest) build in Speculative Traders’ bearish positions. Real Money (institutional) remain, by far, the largest component of the bearish USD position.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate speculative bearish USD position continued to build this week, widening nearly $4bn to a level just shy of $14bn.GBP and CAD had the largest (improving) w/w swings and all of the reporting currencies saw positive w/w changes with the exception of EUR.Digging deeper, we note the continued (albeit modest) build in Speculative Traders’ bearish positions. Real Money (institutional) remain, by far, the largest component of the bearish USD position.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish Aggregate USD Bet Continues To Build

<ul><li>USDCAD technical signals have felt a little redundant amid the uncertainty and volatility of the past couple of months.</li><li>With the benefit of hindsight, however, the sharp swings in spot in February and into early March did develop meaningful, bearish (weekly and monthly) reversal signals for the USD around spot’s brief push to near 1.48 (close to where previous USD spikes flamed out in 2016 and 2020).</li><li>USD losses have corrected more than 2/3 of the USD rally seen over the past few months, with spot consolidating a little above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement (1.3744) over the past week. Note a broad band of congestion on the daily chart also sits between 1.3575/1.3775. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

USDCAD technical signals have felt a little redundant amid the uncertainty and volatility of the past couple of months.With the benefit of hindsight, however, the sharp swings in spot in February and into early March did develop meaningful, bearish (weekly and monthly) reversal signals for the USD around spot’s brief push to near 1.48 (close to where previous USD spikes flamed out in 2016 and 2020).USD losses have corrected more than 2/3 of the USD rally seen over the past few months, with spot consolidating a little above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement (1.3744) over the past week. Note a broad band of congestion on the daily chart also sits between 1.3575/1.3775. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The recent strength in the CAD has been notable and we’ve been encouraged by the CAD bullish break of the trading range that had been in place since late last year.</li><li>We adjusted our CAD forecasts lower (weaker) in response to the initial tariff news.</li><li>But we have been somewhat reluctantly bearish on the CAD, owing to extended policy rate differentials and fundamental (purchasing power parity) valuations that looked stretched from a historical perspective. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The recent strength in the CAD has been notable and we’ve been encouraged by the CAD bullish break of the trading range that had been in place since late last year.We adjusted our CAD forecasts lower (weaker) in response to the initial tariff news.But we have been somewhat reluctantly bearish on the CAD, owing to extended policy rate differentials and fundamental (purchasing power parity) valuations that looked stretched from a historical perspective. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - Shifting Views Suggest a New (Lower) Trading Range for USDCAD

<ul><li>The aggregate speculative bearish USD position more than doubled in the week ended April 15, widening nearly $6bn to a net short $10.1bn.</li><li>The bulk of this week’s adjustments were observed in the JPY and CAD, with positive improvements in EUR also contributing to the USD’s (sentiment) losses (table below, p1).</li><li>Digging deeper, Real Money (instutional) investors continue to represent the bulk of the bearish USD position.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate speculative bearish USD position more than doubled in the week ended April 15, widening nearly $6bn to a net short $10.1bn.The bulk of this week’s adjustments were observed in the JPY and CAD, with positive improvements in EUR also contributing to the USD’s (sentiment) losses (table below, p1).Digging deeper, Real Money (instutional) investors continue to represent the bulk of the bearish USD position.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC - CAD Bears Vulnerable to Short Squeeze As JPY Bulls Build On Large Longs

<ul><li>Our note from February 19th suggested that we were perhaps “passing through the eye of the tariff storm” at that point as markets reacted relatively calmly to the torrent of tariff threats from the White House.</li><li>Developments over the past 24 hours suggest that the next wave of tariff uncertainty is breaking over markets.</li><li>I, like many other I suspect, had felt that the levying of 25% tariffs was highly unlikely. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our note from February 19th suggested that we were perhaps “passing through the eye of the tariff storm” at that point as markets reacted relatively calmly to the torrent of tariff threats from the White House.Developments over the past 24 hours suggest that the next wave of tariff uncertainty is breaking over markets.I, like many other I suspect, had felt that the levying of 25% tariffs was highly unlikely. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - Tariff Pile On to Keep the CAD Under Pressure

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish Aggregate USD Bet Continues To Build

The aggregate speculative bearish USD position continued to build this week, widening nearly $4bn to a level just shy of $14bn.

Scotiabank

CAD Technical Overview

USD losses have corrected more than 2/3 of the USD rally seen over the past few months, with spot consolidating a little above the 76.4% Fibonacci...

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - Shifting Views Suggest a New (Lower) Trading Range for USDCAD

The recent strength in the CAD has been notable and we’ve been encouraged by the CAD bullish break of the trading range that had been in place...

Scotiabank

CFTC - CAD Bears Vulnerable to Short Squeeze As JPY Bulls Build On Large Longs

The aggregate speculative bearish USD position more than doubled in the week ended April 15, widening nearly $6bn to a net short $10.1bn.

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - Tariff Pile On to Keep the CAD Under Pressure

I, like many other I suspect, had felt that the levying of 25% tariffs was highly unlikely. Or, if it came to 25% tariffs, they would not be in...

Scotiabank

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