External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Our recently updated forecasts reflected a sharp U-turn in our views on the USD following the outcome of the US presidential election.</li><li>President-elect Trump’s plans to pursue deregulation, tax cuts and tariffs implied more upside potential in the US economy, higher for longer US rates and a strong for longer USD.</li><li>We adjusted our FX forecasts significantly in response and call for USDCAD reach 1.45 in H2 2025 and hold there through the end of the year. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our recently updated forecasts reflected a sharp U-turn in our views on the USD following the outcome of the US presidential election.President-elect Trump’s plans to pursue deregulation, tax cuts and tariffs implied more upside potential in the US economy, higher for longer US rates and a strong for longer USD.We adjusted our FX forecasts significantly in response and call for USDCAD reach 1.45 in H2 2025 and hold there through the end of the year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - CAD Ruffled by Political Uncertainty

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

<ul><li>During the period under consideration, i.e. October 14th, 2024, to November 15th, 2024, the USD/CAD pair posted a clearly upward trajectory.</li><li>The period started with a slight decrease for the price, but after October 17th the currency faced a general appreciation, indicating a bullish momentum.</li><li>On November 4th, the pair experienced a downward correction and after that, it fluctuated sideways in a slight but steady upward movement.</li></ul>

During the period under consideration, i.e. October 14th, 2024, to November 15th, 2024, the USD/CAD pair posted a clearly upward trajectory.The period started with a slight decrease for the price, but after October 17th the currency faced a general appreciation, indicating a bullish momentum.On November 4th, the pair experienced a downward correction and after that, it fluctuated sideways in a slight but steady upward movement.

Comment on Exchange Rate USD/CAD - November 15, 2024

<ul><li>A larger-than-forecast rise in the Canadian unemployment rate to 6.8% in November, leaves the CAD trading defensively into the end of the week.</li><li>The US employment data largely met expectations, supporting the outlook for a 1/4-point cut from the Fed later this month but the odds of a 1/2-point move from the Bank of Canada next week have strengthened.</li><li>Swaps now indicate 44bps of anticipated easing Wednesday.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

A larger-than-forecast rise in the Canadian unemployment rate to 6.8% in November, leaves the CAD trading defensively into the end of the week.The US employment data largely met expectations, supporting the outlook for a 1/4-point cut from the Fed later this month but the odds of a 1/2-point move from the Bank of Canada next week have strengthened.Swaps now indicate 44bps of anticipated easing Wednesday.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Prone to More Losses, Limited Scope for Rebounds

<ul><li>I participated in a client call earlier today with my colleagues in Toronto, New York and Mexico where we all had a chance to give our assessment of the potential impact of Monday’s surprising news that President-elect Trump would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on day one of his term unless border security was tightened up significantly.</li><li>We all broadly agreed that is a threat— leverage—to achieve non-trade-related goals rather than a real risk at this point.</li><li>The following is an attempt to summarize the FX-related content of the call.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

I participated in a client call earlier today with my colleagues in Toronto, New York and Mexico where we all had a chance to give our assessment of the potential impact of Monday’s surprising news that President-elect Trump would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on day one of his term unless border security was tightened up significantly.We all broadly agreed that is a threat— leverage—to achieve non-trade-related goals rather than a real risk at this point.The following is an attempt to summarize the FX-related content of the call.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USDCAD and Trump’s Tariffs

<ul><li>The CAD has weakened to its lowest since 2020 in the wake of the US presidential election.</li><li>Broad strength in the USD followed the result as markets anticipated pro-growth and potentially inflationary policy moves by the incoming Trump administration.</li><li>The US swaps curve was in the process of revising Fed rate cut expectations even before the election amid resilient US growth and signs that the FOMC was less likely to follow up September’s rate 1/2-point rate cut with another bold move. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The CAD has weakened to its lowest since 2020 in the wake of the US presidential election.Broad strength in the USD followed the result as markets anticipated pro-growth and potentially inflationary policy moves by the incoming Trump administration.The US swaps curve was in the process of revising Fed rate cut expectations even before the election amid resilient US growth and signs that the FOMC was less likely to follow up September’s rate 1/2-point rate cut with another bold move. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Liable to Drop Further in Coming Weeks

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

FX Snapshot - CAD Ruffled by Political Uncertainty

Our recently updated forecasts reflected a sharp U-turn in our views on the USD following the outcome of the US presidential election.

Scotiabank

Comment on Exchange Rate USD/CAD - November 15, 2024

During the period under consideration, i.e. October 14th, 2024, to November 15th, 2024, the USD/CAD pair posted a clearly upward trajectory.

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Prone to More Losses, Limited Scope for Rebounds

A larger-than-forecast rise in the Canadian unemployment rate to 6.8% in November, leaves the CAD trading defensively into the end of the week.

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - USDCAD and Trump’s Tariffs

We all broadly agreed that is a threat— leverage—to achieve non-trade-related goals rather than a real risk at this point. The following is an...

Scotiabank

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Liable to Drop Further in Coming Weeks

The CAD has weakened to its lowest since 2020 in the wake of the US presidential election. Broad strength in the USD followed the result as markets...

Scotiabank

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