External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The CAD has weakened to its lowest since 2020 in the wake of the US presidential election.</li><li>Broad strength in the USD followed the result as markets anticipated pro-growth and potentially inflationary policy moves by the incoming Trump administration.</li><li>The US swaps curve was in the process of revising Fed rate cut expectations even before the election amid resilient US growth and signs that the FOMC was less likely to follow up September’s rate 1/2-point rate cut with another bold move. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The CAD has weakened to its lowest since 2020 in the wake of the US presidential election.Broad strength in the USD followed the result as markets anticipated pro-growth and potentially inflationary policy moves by the incoming Trump administration.The US swaps curve was in the process of revising Fed rate cut expectations even before the election amid resilient US growth and signs that the FOMC was less likely to follow up September’s rate 1/2-point rate cut with another bold move. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Liable to Drop Further in Coming Weeks

<ul><li>The CAD is down modestly against the USD on the week, just about holding above 2-year range lows.</li><li>It is trading a little better than its commodity peers on the week but underperforming slightly versus the EUR, GBP and JPY.</li><li>The shift in CAD-negative variables appears to have stabilized, with the CAD fair value estimate holding around 1.3930 since mid-week. Measured correlations are very weak. Things are not getting worse but they are not getting obviously better for the CAD. Reaching to clutch a couple of CADpositive straws, the TRIX oscillator is rolling over more clearly. It has done a decent job of catching broader peaks and troughs in USDCAD recently. And, looking back over the past few years, the USD has tended to peak around this time of the year and these sorts of levels (October 2022 ~ 1.3977 and November 2023 ~ 1.39).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The CAD is down modestly against the USD on the week, just about holding above 2-year range lows.It is trading a little better than its commodity peers on the week but underperforming slightly versus the EUR, GBP and JPY.The shift in CAD-negative variables appears to have stabilized, with the CAD fair value estimate holding around 1.3930 since mid-week. Measured correlations are very weak. Things are not getting worse but they are not getting obviously better for the CAD. Reaching to clutch a couple of CADpositive straws, the TRIX oscillator is rolling over more clearly. It has done a decent job of catching broader peaks and troughs in USDCAD recently. And, looking back over the past few years, the USD has tended to peak around this time of the year and these sorts of levels (October 2022 ~ 1.3977 and November 2023 ~ 1.39).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - Soft CAD Steadying Near Recent Lows

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to a little lower overall on the session after a bull run that has stretched for 11 consecutive days through Monday’s trading.</li><li>Among developed market currencies, these sorts of sustained daily or weekly bull/bear runs rarely extend for deeply into double digits (more than 10 days or weeks in one direction, in other words) without some sort of pause or pull back.</li><li>The USD is looking generally over extended and prone to a minor correction at least on the charts but that does not necessarily mean a deep or sustained drop. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to a little lower overall on the session after a bull run that has stretched for 11 consecutive days through Monday’s trading.Among developed market currencies, these sorts of sustained daily or weekly bull/bear runs rarely extend for deeply into double digits (more than 10 days or weeks in one direction, in other words) without some sort of pause or pull back.The USD is looking generally over extended and prone to a minor correction at least on the charts but that does not necessarily mean a deep or sustained drop. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USDCAD Winning Streak Tests History

<ul><li>USDCAD’s push through resistance in the mid-1.36s at the start of the month set in motion a sustained rise in the USD to retest minor resistance at 1.3850, the peak from April.</li><li>A doublebottom (1.3440/45) interpretation of price action over the past couple of months would suggest that the USD’s rally is now more or less complete.</li><li>That is also reflected in very overbought intraday and daily (DMI, RSI) oscillator signals. Overbought/oversold conditions can prevail for an extended period so there is no guarantee of a CAD rebound at this point. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

USDCAD’s push through resistance in the mid-1.36s at the start of the month set in motion a sustained rise in the USD to retest minor resistance at 1.3850, the peak from April.A doublebottom (1.3440/45) interpretation of price action over the past couple of months would suggest that the USD’s rally is now more or less complete.That is also reflected in very overbought intraday and daily (DMI, RSI) oscillator signals. Overbought/oversold conditions can prevail for an extended period so there is no guarantee of a CAD rebound at this point. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>While the Bank of Canada’s 1/2 point rate cut Wednesday predictably left the CAD under pressure, the currency has outperformed many of its major currency peers on the week overall, suggesting broader USD strength as much as lower domestic interest rates account for USDCAD’s push to Thursday’s peak just under 1.3870.</li><li>The CAD has steadied today but scope for gains remains limited. Fundamental fair value sits at 1.3857 and the correlation screen highlights spreads as the primary influence on spot at the moment.</li><li>The CAD needs much lower US rates or a major sentiment shift on the USD if it is to improve significantly in the short run at least. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While the Bank of Canada’s 1/2 point rate cut Wednesday predictably left the CAD under pressure, the currency has outperformed many of its major currency peers on the week overall, suggesting broader USD strength as much as lower domestic interest rates account for USDCAD’s push to Thursday’s peak just under 1.3870.The CAD has steadied today but scope for gains remains limited. Fundamental fair value sits at 1.3857 and the correlation screen highlights spreads as the primary influence on spot at the moment.The CAD needs much lower US rates or a major sentiment shift on the USD if it is to improve significantly in the short run at least. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly outlook – USDCAD Firm but Overbought

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Liable to Drop Further in Coming Weeks

The CAD has weakened to its lowest since 2020 in the wake of the US presidential election. Broad strength in the USD followed the result as markets...

Scotiabank

CAD Weekly Outlook - Soft CAD Steadying Near Recent Lows

It is trading a little better than its commodity peers on the week but underperforming slightly versus the EUR, GBP and JPY.

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - USDCAD Winning Streak Tests History

FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to a little lower overall on the session after a bull run that has stretched for 11 consecutive days...

Scotiabank

CAD Technical Overview

USDCAD’s push through resistance in the mid-1.36s at the start of the month set in motion a sustained rise in the USD to retest minor resistance at...

Scotiabank

CAD Weekly outlook – USDCAD Firm but Overbought

While the Bank of Canada’s 1/2 point rate cut Wednesday predictably left the CAD under pressure, the currency has outperformed many of its major...

Scotiabank

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