Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

ECB Watch: The ECB is likely wrong on all major parameters

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In this piece, we are going to compare the ECB and the Fed case systemically on a set of important parameters to ultimately conclude with our base-case and suggested allocations on the back of it.</li><li>We will assess the cases on: 1) Inflation 2) Growth 3) Labour 4) Liquidity</li><li>Inflation Watch: The ECB is realistically much closer to claiming victory. As we have noted since the early summer, we find the probability of sub-2% inflation in the Euro area much larger than in the US.</li></ul>

In this piece, we are going to compare the ECB and the Fed case systemically on a set of important parameters to ultimately conclude with our base-case and suggested allocations on the back of it.We will assess the cases on: 1) Inflation 2) Growth 3) Labour 4) LiquidityInflation Watch: The ECB is realistically much closer to claiming victory. As we have noted since the early summer, we find the probability of sub-2% inflation in the Euro area much larger than in the US.

ECB & Fed Watch: Closing in on ECB Rate Cuts, While the Fed Is Not Done Hiking