Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Headline EA inflation disappointed consensus expectations by dropping another 0.4pp to 1.77% amid lower energy prices and stagnant industrial goods prices.</li><li>Although the outcome was within 1bps of our forecast, it has been grinding lower in recent weeks. The likely rebound above 2% looks increasingly small and fleeting.</li><li>The expected rebound restrained the ECB, so its diminishment while demand disappoints now makes an October rate cut likely in addition to the December move.</li></ul><p></p>

Headline EA inflation disappointed consensus expectations by dropping another 0.4pp to 1.77% amid lower energy prices and stagnant industrial goods prices.Although the outcome was within 1bps of our forecast, it has been grinding lower in recent weeks. The likely rebound above 2% looks increasingly small and fleeting.The expected rebound restrained the ECB, so its diminishment while demand disappoints now makes an October rate cut likely in addition to the December move.

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Larsen &amp; Toubro (L&amp;T) plans to generate INR 40,000 crore in pre-sales revenue through aggressive land acquisition and portfolio expansion.</li>
<li>NLC India aims to reach a mining capacity of 1 MTPA for critical minerals by FY30</li>
<li>Reliance's Viacom 18-Disney Merger Approved, Creating India’s Largest Media Empire</li>
</ul>


Larsen &amp; Toubro (L&amp;T) plans to generate INR 40,000 crore in pre-sales revenue through aggressive land acquisition and portfolio expansion.
NLC India aims to reach a mining capacity of 1 MTPA for critical minerals by FY30
Reliance's Viacom 18-Disney Merger Approved, Creating India’s Largest Media Empire


# 63 India Insight: L&T to Raise INR 400 Billion, NLC Targets 1 MTPA Capacity, Tata Motors Start JLR

Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Founder & Head of Research

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

Premium Economic & Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Lower fuel prices will be a key factor in September’s HICP, pulling y/y rate to 1.9%, which would be lowest in three years and despite little change in services inflation.  </li>
<li>Indeed, the risk is of an even lower outcome. This may be short-lived given adverse base effects later this year before a more sustained fall below 2% occurs through 2025. </li>
<li>But the September projection is in line with ECB thinking as it leads to a Q3 outcome of 2.2%. </li>
</ul>


Lower fuel prices will be a key factor in September’s HICP, pulling y/y rate to 1.9%, which would be lowest in three years and despite little change in services inflation.  
Indeed, the risk is of an even lower outcome. This may be short-lived given adverse base effects later this year before a more sustained fall below 2% occurs through 2025. 
But the September projection is in line with ECB thinking as it leads to a Q3 outcome of 2.2%. 


Eurozone HICP Preview (Oct 1): Headline Back Below Target and Backed Up By Survey Signs

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>US employment report will be the focus. EUR/USD upside looks more restricted. Still scope for JPY and AUD gains.</li>
<li>The US employment report at the end of the week is the main focus. We look for a significantly stronger than consensus report, with a 180k rise in non-farm payrolls</li>
<li>This suggests an underlying USD positive pict ure for the week, but the payroll number isn’t released until Friday.</li>
</ul>


US employment report will be the focus. EUR/USD upside looks more restricted. Still scope for JPY and AUD gains.
The US employment report at the end of the week is the main focus. We look for a significantly stronger than consensus report, with a 180k rise in non-farm payrolls
This suggests an underlying USD positive pict ure for the week, but the payroll number isn’t released until Friday.


FX Weekly Strategy: September 30th - October 4th

<ul>
<li>The U.S. economy is slowing, with the critical question being whether this is a soft or harder landing.</li>
<li>Our broad analysis leaves us inclined to the soft landing view into 2025, though we shall watch real sector data closely over the next 3-6 months to check the trajectory. </li>
<li>Elsewhere, European growth should recover into 2025. Finally, China growth is set to slow to 4% in 2025, as slowdown in consumption adds to the drag from the residential property.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. economy is slowing, with the critical question being whether this is a soft or harder landing.
Our broad analysis leaves us inclined to the soft landing view into 2025, though we shall watch real sector data closely over the next 3-6 months to check the trajectory. 
Elsewhere, European growth should recover into 2025. Finally, China growth is set to slow to 4% in 2025, as slowdown in consumption adds to the drag from the residential property.


Outlook Overview: How Far Are the Rate Cuts?

Spain
Insights on Spain

EA: Disinflating Towards an October Cut

Headline EA inflation disappointed consensus expectations by dropping another 0.4pp to 1.77% amid lower energy prices and stagnant industrial...

Phil Rush

# 63 India Insight: L&T to Raise INR 400 Billion, NLC Targets 1 MTPA Capacity, Tata Motors Start JLR

L&T aims for INR 40,000 crore in pre-sales revenue, NLC India targets 1 MTPA mining capacity by FY30, Reliance's Viacom 18-Disney merger approved...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Eurozone HICP Preview (Oct 1): Headline Back Below Target and Backed Up By Survey Signs

Lower fuel prices driving September's HICP to 1.9%, lowest in 3 years, with potential for even lower outcome before sustained fall below 2% by...

Alex Ng

FX Weekly Strategy: September 30th - October 4th

Focus on US employment report this week, potential for USD strength, limited upside for EUR/USD, potential gains for JPY and AUD.

Alex Ng

Outlook Overview: How Far Are the Rate Cuts?

US economy likely to experience a soft landing into 2025, while European growth is expected to recover. China's growth set to slow to 4% due to...

Alex Ng

EA: Disinflating Towards an October Cut

Headline EA inflation disappointed consensus expectations by dropping another 0.4pp to 1.77% amid lower energy prices and stagnant industrial...

Phil Rush

# 63 India Insight: L&T to Raise INR 400 Billion, NLC Targets 1 MTPA Capacity, Tata Motors Start JLR

​L&T aims for INR 40,000 crore in pre-sales revenue, NLC India targets 1 MTPA mining capacity by FY30, Reliance's Viacom 18-Disney merger approved...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Eurozone HICP Preview (Oct 1): Headline Back Below Target and Backed Up By Survey Signs

​Lower fuel prices driving September's HICP to 1.9%, lowest in 3 years, with potential for even lower outcome before sustained fall below 2% by...

Alex Ng

FX Weekly Strategy: September 30th - October 4th

​Focus on US employment report this week, potential for USD strength, limited upside for EUR/USD, potential gains for JPY and AUD.

Alex Ng

Outlook Overview: How Far Are the Rate Cuts?

​US economy likely to experience a soft landing into 2025, while European growth is expected to recover. China's growth set to slow to 4% due to...

Alex Ng

L&T aims for INR 40,000 crore in pre-sales revenue, NLC India targets 1 MTPA mining capacity by FY30, Reliance's Viacom 18-Disney merger approved...

Lower fuel prices driving September's HICP to 1.9%, lowest in 3 years, with potential for even lower outcome before sustained fall below 2% by...

Focus on US employment report this week, potential for USD strength, limited upside for EUR/USD, potential gains for JPY and AUD.

US economy likely to experience a soft landing into 2025, while European growth is expected to recover. China's growth set to slow to 4% due to...