Political Analyst, Heteronomics

Alastair Newton

Political Analyst

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Political instability in France and Germany hampers Europe’s ability to act, making a second Trump term the most visible "grey rhino" that could force significant change.</li><li>European complacency and fatalism could be shaken by Trump’s aggressive trade policy and executive actions, pressuring Europe to respond to disrupted global alliances.</li><li>Uncertainty surrounds Ukraine aid post-election, with Trump likely to halt it and Harris facing gridlock, potentially forcing a temporary and uneasy end to the conflict.</li></ul>

Political instability in France and Germany hampers Europe’s ability to act, making a second Trump term the most visible "grey rhino" that could force significant change.European complacency and fatalism could be shaken by Trump’s aggressive trade policy and executive actions, pressuring Europe to respond to disrupted global alliances.Uncertainty surrounds Ukraine aid post-election, with Trump likely to halt it and Harris facing gridlock, potentially forcing a temporary and uneasy end to the conflict.

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Oryzon Genomics, SA is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company that develops epigenetics-based therapeutics.

Oryzon Genomics has confirmed the FDA’s alignment with its proposed Phase III programme for vafidemstat in borderline personality disorder (BPD). Notably, the FDA acknowledged agitation and aggression (A/A) as a therapeutic indication and, as such, the State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory 2 (STAXI-2) Trait Anger may be used as a primary endpoint for Phase III (PORTICO-2). We note that vafidemstat showed statistically significant benefit by this measure in the prior Phase IIb PORTICO trial. We view the news as encouraging and believe there is a sizeable opportunity for Oryzon to develop an effective treatment for BPD, for which there are currently no approved drugs. Next steps are to submit a full trial protocol for PORTICO-2 to the FDA (expected within Q125), before a potential trial launch from H225, contingent on regulatory clearance and providing that there are no other delays.

Oryzon Genomics has confirmed the FDA’s alignment with its proposed Phase III programme for vafidemstat in borderline personality disorder (BPD). Notably, the FDA acknowledged agitation and aggression (A/A) as a therapeutic indication and, as such, the State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory 2 (STAXI-2) Trait Anger may be used as a primary endpoint for Phase III (PORTICO-2). We note that vafidemstat showed statistically significant benefit by this measure in the prior Phase IIb PORTICO trial. We view the news as encouraging and believe there is a sizeable opportunity for Oryzon to develop an effective treatment for BPD, for which there are currently no approved drugs. Next steps are to submit a full trial protocol for PORTICO-2 to the FDA (expected within Q125), before a potential trial launch from H225, contingent on regulatory clearance and providing that there are no other delays. 

Oryzon Genomics - FDA aligns on Phase III BPD plans

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

<ul><li>Headline EA inflation disappointed consensus expectations by dropping another 0.4pp to 1.77% amid lower energy prices and stagnant industrial goods prices.</li><li>Although the outcome was within 1bps of our forecast, it has been grinding lower in recent weeks. The likely rebound above 2% looks increasingly small and fleeting.</li><li>The expected rebound restrained the ECB, so its diminishment while demand disappoints now makes an October rate cut likely in addition to the December move.</li></ul>

Headline EA inflation disappointed consensus expectations by dropping another 0.4pp to 1.77% amid lower energy prices and stagnant industrial goods prices.Although the outcome was within 1bps of our forecast, it has been grinding lower in recent weeks. The likely rebound above 2% looks increasingly small and fleeting.The expected rebound restrained the ECB, so its diminishment while demand disappoints now makes an October rate cut likely in addition to the December move.

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Larsen &amp; Toubro (L&amp;T) plans to generate INR 40,000 crore in pre-sales revenue through aggressive land acquisition and portfolio expansion.</li>
<li>NLC India aims to reach a mining capacity of 1 MTPA for critical minerals by FY30</li>
<li>Reliance's Viacom 18-Disney Merger Approved, Creating India’s Largest Media Empire</li>
</ul>


Larsen &amp; Toubro (L&amp;T) plans to generate INR 40,000 crore in pre-sales revenue through aggressive land acquisition and portfolio expansion.
NLC India aims to reach a mining capacity of 1 MTPA for critical minerals by FY30
Reliance's Viacom 18-Disney Merger Approved, Creating India’s Largest Media Empire


# 63 India Insight: L&T to Raise INR 400 Billion, NLC Targets 1 MTPA Capacity, Tata Motors Start JLR

Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Founder & Head of Research

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

Premium Economic & Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Lower fuel prices will be a key factor in September’s HICP, pulling y/y rate to 1.9%, which would be lowest in three years and despite little change in services inflation.  </li>
<li>Indeed, the risk is of an even lower outcome. This may be short-lived given adverse base effects later this year before a more sustained fall below 2% occurs through 2025. </li>
<li>But the September projection is in line with ECB thinking as it leads to a Q3 outcome of 2.2%. </li>
</ul>


Lower fuel prices will be a key factor in September’s HICP, pulling y/y rate to 1.9%, which would be lowest in three years and despite little change in services inflation.  
Indeed, the risk is of an even lower outcome. This may be short-lived given adverse base effects later this year before a more sustained fall below 2% occurs through 2025. 
But the September projection is in line with ECB thinking as it leads to a Q3 outcome of 2.2%. 


Eurozone HICP Preview (Oct 1): Headline Back Below Target and Backed Up By Survey Signs