Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Nuvoton Technology Corp. manudfactures a wide range of semiconductor products. The Company's products lines are Consumer Electronics integrated Circuits (IC) and Computer IC.

<ul>
<li>The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).</li>
<li>These indices are rebalanced quarterly. In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>T50/100 index changes can also trigger TDIV index changes. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuvoton-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15913:1" rel="noopener">Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT)</a> could be involved in such a move in September 2024.</li>
</ul>


The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
These indices are rebalanced quarterly. In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event.
T50/100 index changes can also trigger TDIV index changes. Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT) could be involved in such a move in September 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Sep 24: Nuvoton Tech TDIV Deletion Is the Talking Point

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Irate U.S. politicians have gunned down their own tech sector, triggering declines of 7% to 20% among leading semiconductor equipment stocks outside China. </li>
<li>We expect a bounce after such large declines - and further gains for Naura and AMEC in China. </li>
<li>Investors now face difficult questions about the future of Chinese demand, the sustainability of the AI boom, and valuations. We are not optimistic.</li>
</ul>


Irate U.S. politicians have gunned down their own tech sector, triggering declines of 7% to 20% among leading semiconductor equipment stocks outside China. 
We expect a bounce after such large declines - and further gains for Naura and AMEC in China. 
Investors now face difficult questions about the future of Chinese demand, the sustainability of the AI boom, and valuations. We are not optimistic.


Semiconductor Equipment Stocks: A Bounce Before the Reckoning

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Kokusai Electric Corporation manufactures and distributes semiconductor manufacturing systems. The Company produces batch processing systems, single wafer processing systems, and other systems. Kokusai Electric also operates advanced thermal process technology development, training, and other businesses.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> could price their secondary offering after market close today. The stock is down 10.5% since the rumors of the placement began 7 trading sessions ago.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philadelphia-stock-exchange-semiconductor-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32992:1" rel="noopener">Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX)</a> has been dropping over the last few days and is 8.6% lower over the last 8 trading days.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> has been trading higher on expectations of index inclusion in August, but that could move to November now.</li>
</ul>



Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) could price their secondary offering after market close today. The stock is down 10.5% since the rumors of the placement began 7 trading sessions ago.
The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX) has been dropping over the last few days and is 8.6% lower over the last 8 trading days.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) has been trading higher on expectations of index inclusion in August, but that could move to November now.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement Price Could Be Determined Today; Index Impact Could Be Delayed

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine Co. Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells medicine and pharmaceutical products in China.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3374:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement China (743 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>.
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tatsuta-electric-wire-cable-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12509:1" rel="noopener">Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mimasu-semiconductor-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5531:1" rel="noopener">Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infocom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8412:1" rel="noopener">Infocom Corp (4348 JP)</a>, Hollysys.
</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Asia Cement China (743 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK).

Lowest spreads: Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), Infocom Corp (4348 JP), Hollysys.



Merger Arb Mondays (22 Jul) - China TCM, GA Pack, Huafa, Samson, CPMC, Fancl, Tatsuta, Capitol

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Stocks Fall On Potential New U.S. Tech Restrictions for China &amp; Potential Policy Shift from a Trump White House... Strong TSMC &amp; ASML Results Fail to Rally the Sector</li>
<li>Even Tighter Technology Restrictions for China?  -- US Could Use Special Rule to Restrict Selling of Products Made by Foreign Companies</li>
<li>We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up </li>
</ul>


Taiwan Stocks Fall On Potential New U.S. Tech Restrictions for China &amp; Potential Policy Shift from a Trump White House... Strong TSMC &amp; ASML Results Fail to Rally the Sector
Even Tighter Technology Restrictions for China?  -- US Could Use Special Rule to Restrict Selling of Products Made by Foreign Companies
We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

Semiconductors
Insights on Semiconductor Supply Chain

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Sep 24: Nuvoton Tech TDIV Deletion Is the Talking Point

We do not see any changes for the T50 index at present. However, we see three changes for the T100 index and one of the DELs - Nuvoton Tech - could...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Semiconductor Equipment Stocks: A Bounce Before the Reckoning

Reports of tighter US sanctions and Trump's comments about Taiwan have broken the momentum of SPE stocks. A bounce seems likely, but a scenario of...

Scott Foster

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement Price Could Be Determined Today; Index Impact Could Be Delayed

The Kokusai Electric secondary offering price could be determined today. A drop in the SOX Index and the possibility of index inclusion being...

Brian Freitas

Merger Arb Mondays (22 Jul) - China TCM, GA Pack, Huafa, Samson, CPMC, Fancl, Tatsuta, Capitol

This week, the highest gross spreads are HEC Pharma (122.5%), China TCM (31.8%), Asia Cement (12.6%), Canvest (11.1%), GA Pack (10.9%), Malaysia...

Arun George

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

Taiwan stocks dropped last week as potential new US tech restrictions for China loom, despite strong TSMC and ASML results. Apple ramping up...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Sep 24: Nuvoton Tech TDIV Deletion Is the Talking Point

We do not see any changes for the T50 index at present. However, we see three changes for the T100 index and one of the DELs - Nuvoton Tech - could...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Semiconductor Equipment Stocks: A Bounce Before the Reckoning

Reports of tighter US sanctions and Trump's comments about Taiwan have broken the momentum of SPE stocks. A bounce seems likely, but a scenario of...

Scott Foster

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement Price Could Be Determined Today; Index Impact Could Be Delayed

The Kokusai Electric secondary offering price could be determined today. A drop in the SOX Index and the possibility of index inclusion being...

Brian Freitas

Merger Arb Mondays (22 Jul) - China TCM, GA Pack, Huafa, Samson, CPMC, Fancl, Tatsuta, Capitol

This week, the highest gross spreads are HEC Pharma (122.5%), China TCM (31.8%), Asia Cement (12.6%), Canvest (11.1%), GA Pack (10.9%), Malaysia...

Arun George

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

​Taiwan stocks dropped last week as potential new US tech restrictions for China loom, despite strong TSMC and ASML results. Apple ramping up...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Sep 24: Nuvoton Tech TDIV Deletion Is the Talking Point

Taiwan stocks dropped last week as potential new US tech restrictions for China loom, despite strong TSMC and ASML results. Apple ramping up...