Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

<ul><li>Nvidia posted earnings yesterday, and guidance was light of buy-side bogeys. I’m not going to step into the mind game of bogeys here, but there are some finer points to focus on.</li><li>NVIDIA reports Q3 EPS $0.81 ex-items vs FactSet $0.75. Reports Q3: Revenue $35.08B vs FactSet $33.17B (2 billion beat like clockwork)</li><li>Q4 Guidance: Revenue $37.5B +/- 2% vs FactSet $37.09B (a bit light). GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 73.0% and 73.5%, respectively, +/- 50 bps. (also light)</li></ul>

Nvidia posted earnings yesterday, and guidance was light of buy-side bogeys. I’m not going to step into the mind game of bogeys here, but there are some finer points to focus on.NVIDIA reports Q3 EPS $0.81 ex-items vs FactSet $0.75. Reports Q3: Revenue $35.08B vs FactSet $33.17B (2 billion beat like clockwork)Q4 Guidance: Revenue $37.5B +/- 2% vs FactSet $37.09B (a bit light). GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 73.0% and 73.5%, respectively, +/- 50 bps. (also light)

NVIDIA: Waiting on Blackwell, and the Networking Question

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Revenues of $7.05 billion were marginally higher than midpoint of $6.93 billion, up 4% QoQ and up 5% YoY.  Guided current quarter at $7.15 billion +1.5% QoQ , +10.5% YoY</li>
<li>Most WFE share prices have retreated to early 2022 levels, matching with when annual revenues first exceeded the $100 billion level</li>
<li>After a 44% growth spurt in 2021, we have had three years with mostly no growth. We expect the same in 2025. Invest accordingly</li>
</ul>


Revenues of $7.05 billion were marginally higher than midpoint of $6.93 billion, up 4% QoQ and up 5% YoY.  Guided current quarter at $7.15 billion +1.5% QoQ , +10.5% YoY
Most WFE share prices have retreated to early 2022 levels, matching with when annual revenues first exceeded the $100 billion level
After a 44% growth spurt in 2021, we have had three years with mostly no growth. We expect the same in 2025. Invest accordingly


For Its WFE Q324 Season Finale, AMAT Returns ASML's Favour & Sinks Semis Yet Again

<ul>
<li>The pace of recovery in 200 millimeters appears to have been very weak. Customers continue to respect LTA prices but we have to push out delivery timing which impacts volumes.</li>
<li>China appears to have developed their own capability to fabricate wafers. Quality does not necessarily appear to be very good but there is strong pressure to comply with “Buy China” </li>
<li>The recovery in legacy applications has been surprisingly slow. At this stage we don't know whether it is a slow recovery or in fact that there won't be a recovery.</li>
</ul>


The pace of recovery in 200 millimeters appears to have been very weak. Customers continue to respect LTA prices but we have to push out delivery timing which impacts volumes.
China appears to have developed their own capability to fabricate wafers. Quality does not necessarily appear to be very good but there is strong pressure to comply with “Buy China” 
The recovery in legacy applications has been surprisingly slow. At this stage we don't know whether it is a slow recovery or in fact that there won't be a recovery.


SUMCO Despairs On Legacy Rebound, EVs, China, Visibility Etc...

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

<ul>
<li>Hon Hai, Pegatron, and Quanta Gear Up for Potential U.S. Investment Surge Amid Trump Policy Speculation</li>
<li>PC Monitor: Asustek &amp; Lenovo Signal Strong PC Growth, AI PC Expansion in Process</li>
<li>Semiconductor Memory Q324 Revenue Close To Historic Highs Even As Decoupling Intensifies </li>
</ul>


Hon Hai, Pegatron, and Quanta Gear Up for Potential U.S. Investment Surge Amid Trump Policy Speculation
PC Monitor: Asustek &amp; Lenovo Signal Strong PC Growth, AI PC Expansion in Process
Semiconductor Memory Q324 Revenue Close To Historic Highs Even As Decoupling Intensifies 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan Firms to Surge U.S. Investment Due to Trump?; AI PCs & Memory Expansion

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +16.7% Premium; Further Market Weakness Could Soon Open Up Good Long Level</li>
<li>UMC: -2.1% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread</li>
<li>ASE: -0.1% Discount; Premium Completely Broken Down &amp; Local Short Interest Continues to Surge</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +16.7% Premium; Further Market Weakness Could Soon Open Up Good Long Level
UMC: -2.1% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
ASE: -0.1% Discount; Premium Completely Broken Down &amp; Local Short Interest Continues to Surge


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Weakness Could Open TSMC Long Level; ASE Short Interest Keeps Surging

Insights on Tech Hardware and Semiconductors

Tech Hardware and Semiconductor Research
Insights on Tech Hardware and Semiconductors

NVIDIA: Waiting on Blackwell, and the Networking Question

Nvidia posted earnings yesterday, and guidance was light of buy-side bogeys. I’m not going to step into the mind game of bogeys here, but there...

Fabricated Knowledge

For Its WFE Q324 Season Finale, AMAT Returns ASML's Favour & Sinks Semis Yet Again

AMAT's so-so quarter & outlook tanked semis as earnings season ends, just like ASML did when it began. Most WFE share prices are now back at early...

William Keating

SUMCO Despairs On Legacy Rebound, EVs, China, Visibility Etc...

There isn't much point in speculating about things we don't understand. We don't know whether it is a slow recovery or if there won't be a...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan Firms to Surge U.S. Investment Due to Trump?; AI PCs & Memory Expansion

Major tech companies like Hon Hai, Pegatron, and Quanta are preparing for increased U.S. investments. Asustek and Lenovo show strong growth in PC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Weakness Could Open TSMC Long Level; ASE Short Interest Keeps Surging

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

NVIDIA: Waiting on Blackwell, and the Networking Question

Nvidia posted earnings yesterday, and guidance was light of buy-side bogeys. I’m not going to step into the mind game of bogeys here, but there...

Fabricated Knowledge

For Its WFE Q324 Season Finale, AMAT Returns ASML's Favour & Sinks Semis Yet Again

AMAT's so-so quarter & outlook tanked semis as earnings season ends, just like ASML did when it began. Most WFE share prices are now back at early...

William Keating

SUMCO Despairs On Legacy Rebound, EVs, China, Visibility Etc...

There isn't much point in speculating about things we don't understand. We don't know whether it is a slow recovery or if there won't be a...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan Firms to Surge U.S. Investment Due to Trump?; AI PCs & Memory Expansion

​Major tech companies like Hon Hai, Pegatron, and Quanta are preparing for increased U.S. investments. Asustek and Lenovo show strong growth in PC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Weakness Could Open TSMC Long Level; ASE Short Interest Keeps Surging

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Major tech companies like Hon Hai, Pegatron, and Quanta are preparing for increased U.S. investments. Asustek and Lenovo show strong growth in PC...