Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China has boycotted sales of Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony, three important elements, to the US</li>
<li>All three are used in the production of semiconductors, but in very small quantities.  They are also widely available from sources outside of China.</li>
<li>The net impact of this boycott to the US semiconductor market should be negligible.</li>
</ul>


China has boycotted sales of Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony, three important elements, to the US
All three are used in the production of semiconductors, but in very small quantities.  They are also widely available from sources outside of China.
The net impact of this boycott to the US semiconductor market should be negligible.


How Important Are China Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony Bans to the US?

Equity Bottom-Up

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings also operates group management strategy formulation and management.

<ul>
<li>Kioxia is planning to offer its IPO on 18 December 2024.  This Insight profiles Kioxia and its market.</li>
<li>NAND flash, Kioxia's product, is a commodity, and that results in dramatic price, revenue, and margin swings.</li>
<li>Kioxia is in a joint venture that provides excellent scale economies which are offset by a supply agreement that amplifies troubles caused by oversupplies</li>
</ul>


Kioxia is planning to offer its IPO on 18 December 2024.  This Insight profiles Kioxia and its market.
NAND flash, Kioxia's product, is a commodity, and that results in dramatic price, revenue, and margin swings.
Kioxia is in a joint venture that provides excellent scale economies which are offset by a supply agreement that amplifies troubles caused by oversupplies


<ul>
<li>AI spending is fueling today's semiconductor market, as generative AI demand falls into place</li>
<li>Hyperscale datacenters are doing the bulk of today's spending as they invest in advance of demand</li>
<li>These investments are falling into question, and spending is likely to level off or drop in 2025, leading to a dramatic semiconductor downturn</li>
</ul>


AI spending is fueling today's semiconductor market, as generative AI demand falls into place
Hyperscale datacenters are doing the bulk of today's spending as they invest in advance of demand
These investments are falling into question, and spending is likely to level off or drop in 2025, leading to a dramatic semiconductor downturn


2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

<ul>
<li>August's WSTS semiconductor revenues registered a record high of more than $53 billion</li>
<li>Nobody seemed to notice, including the organization making the announcement</li>
<li>There's valid concern that the market is on the verge of a collapse, and this may be overshadowing record sales</li>
</ul>


August's WSTS semiconductor revenues registered a record high of more than $53 billion
Nobody seemed to notice, including the organization making the announcement
There's valid concern that the market is on the verge of a collapse, and this may be overshadowing record sales


Semis Just Broke a Record.  Why Did Nobody Notice?

<ul>
<li>The semiconductor market is currently enjoying an AI-driven demand surge</li>
<li>The past two demand-driven surges have turned into collapses as growth returned to the long-term trend</li>
<li>When we compare the past two cycles to the current one, it appears that a collapse could occur relatively soon</li>
</ul>


The semiconductor market is currently enjoying an AI-driven demand surge
The past two demand-driven surges have turned into collapses as growth returned to the long-term trend
When we compare the past two cycles to the current one, it appears that a collapse could occur relatively soon


Objective Analysis
Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

How Important Are China Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony Bans to the US?

Is China's Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony boycott to the US important? For semiconductor production we anticipate minimal impact due to low...

Jim Handy

Understanding Kioxia, A Worthwhile IPO?

With Kioxia's upcoming IPO prospective stockholders need to consider the challenges of the volatile NAND flash market, Kioxia's competition, and...

Jim Handy

2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

AI spending is driving strong semiconductor growth today, but see why hyperscale spending, like 2000's Internet Bubble, is approaching an overbuilt...

Jim Handy

Semis Just Broke a Record. Why Did Nobody Notice?

August's semiconductor revenues hit a record high of over $53 billion, but concerns about a potential market collapse are overshadowing the...

Jim Handy

Current Semi Surge Still Strong

The semiconductor market is experiencing a surge in demand driven by AI, but history suggests a potential collapse may be on the horizon.

Jim Handy

How Important Are China Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony Bans to the US?

​Is China's Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony boycott to the US important? For semiconductor production we anticipate minimal impact due to low...

Jim Handy

Understanding Kioxia, A Worthwhile IPO?

With ​Kioxia's upcoming IPO prospective stockholders need to consider the challenges of the volatile NAND flash market, Kioxia's competition, and...

Jim Handy

2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

AI spending is driving strong semiconductor growth today, but see why hyperscale spending, like 2000's Internet Bubble, is approaching an overbuilt...

Jim Handy

Semis Just Broke a Record. Why Did Nobody Notice?

​August's semiconductor revenues hit a record high of over $53 billion, but concerns about a potential market collapse are overshadowing the...

Jim Handy

Current Semi Surge Still Strong

​The semiconductor market is experiencing a surge in demand driven by AI, but history suggests a potential collapse may be on the horizon.

Jim Handy

Is China's Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony boycott to the US important? For semiconductor production we anticipate minimal impact due to low...

With Kioxia's upcoming IPO prospective stockholders need to consider the challenges of the volatile NAND flash market, Kioxia's competition, and...

August's semiconductor revenues hit a record high of over $53 billion, but concerns about a potential market collapse are overshadowing the...

The semiconductor market is experiencing a surge in demand driven by AI, but history suggests a potential collapse may be on the horizon.