Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Equity Bottom-Up

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

<ul>
<li>Micron's strong HBM and Data Center growth has nearly offset low revenues in the remainder of the company's business.</li>
<li>This HBM growth depends heavily upon continued strength in hyperscale data center AI CapEx</li>
<li>Micron outlined means to maintain stability in its industry, but China semiconductor goals are in conflict with these measures</li>
</ul>


Micron's strong HBM and Data Center growth has nearly offset low revenues in the remainder of the company's business.
This HBM growth depends heavily upon continued strength in hyperscale data center AI CapEx
Micron outlined means to maintain stability in its industry, but China semiconductor goals are in conflict with these measures


Micron 2QF25 Earnings Call Positive, But Tread with Caution

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Hyperscaler CapEx could be slowing down, based on 4Q24 spending</li>
<li>Microsoft made a significant cut in Q4, but Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba all made big increases</li>
<li>Industry CapEx as a percent of revenue has slowed its growth</li>
</ul>


Hyperscaler CapEx could be slowing down, based on 4Q24 spending
Microsoft made a significant cut in Q4, but Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba all made big increases
Industry CapEx as a percent of revenue has slowed its growth


<ul>
<li>Despite the chip market's 19% overall 2024 Y/Y increase, the only real growth was in semiconductors for AI applications.  A turn in the AI business could cause a collapse.</li>
<li>Outside of AI, growth was significantly more modest at 4.8%, which is good compared to the industry's historical growth rate of 3.9%, but is nowhere near the 19% overall number.</li>
<li>The US' trade sanctions appear to be having some impact on chip shipments to China vs. the Americas, but this may be an illusion.</li>
</ul>


Despite the chip market's 19% overall 2024 Y/Y increase, the only real growth was in semiconductors for AI applications.  A turn in the AI business could cause a collapse.
Outside of AI, growth was significantly more modest at 4.8%, which is good compared to the industry's historical growth rate of 3.9%, but is nowhere near the 19% overall number.
The US' trade sanctions appear to be having some impact on chip shipments to China vs. the Americas, but this may be an illusion.


What Do Detailed 2024 Semi Stats Tell Us?

<ul>
<li>A new AI platform named DeepSeek threatens today's Large Language Model status quo</li>
<li>Certain chip companies have become over-dependent on AI, including Nvidia, Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, and their stock has tumbled</li>
<li>It's too early to tell what will occur over the long term</li>
</ul>


A new AI platform named DeepSeek threatens today's Large Language Model status quo
Certain chip companies have become over-dependent on AI, including Nvidia, Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, and their stock has tumbled
It's too early to tell what will occur over the long term


<ul>
<li>China has boycotted sales of Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony, three important elements, to the US</li>
<li>All three are used in the production of semiconductors, but in very small quantities.  They are also widely available from sources outside of China.</li>
<li>The net impact of this boycott to the US semiconductor market should be negligible.</li>
</ul>


China has boycotted sales of Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony, three important elements, to the US
All three are used in the production of semiconductors, but in very small quantities.  They are also widely available from sources outside of China.
The net impact of this boycott to the US semiconductor market should be negligible.


How Important Are China Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony Bans to the US?

Objective Analysis
Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Micron 2QF25 Earnings Call Positive, But Tread with Caution

Micron's strong HBM and Data Center growth helped offset declines elsewhere, but AI growth may slack, and China semi growth is a threat. #Micron...

Jim Handy

IS AI Spending Poised to Fall?

Hyperscaler CapEx growth may be slowing as Microsoft cuts spending in Q4 while Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba increase theirs, leading to a...

Jim Handy

What Do Detailed 2024 Semi Stats Tell Us?

The chip market saw 19% 2024 growth driven by AI semiconductors, but growth outside AI is modest. This is cause for concern. Meanwhile US trade...

Jim Handy

Semiconductor's Over-Dependency on AI

The emergence of DeepSeek AI platform threatens current Large Language Models, causing stock tumbles for chip companies like Nvidia and Samsung....

Jim Handy

How Important Are China Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony Bans to the US?

Is China's Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony boycott to the US important? For semiconductor production we anticipate minimal impact due to low...

Jim Handy

Micron 2QF25 Earnings Call Positive, But Tread with Caution

​Micron's strong HBM and Data Center growth helped offset declines elsewhere, but AI growth may slack, and China semi growth is a threat. #Micron...

Jim Handy

IS AI Spending Poised to Fall?

​Hyperscaler CapEx growth may be slowing as Microsoft cuts spending in Q4 while Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba increase theirs, leading to a...

Jim Handy

What Do Detailed 2024 Semi Stats Tell Us?

​The chip market saw 19% 2024 growth driven by AI semiconductors, but growth outside AI is modest. This is cause for concern. Meanwhile US trade...

Jim Handy

Semiconductor's Over-Dependency on AI

​The emergence of DeepSeek AI platform threatens current Large Language Models, causing stock tumbles for chip companies like Nvidia and Samsung....

Jim Handy

How Important Are China Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony Bans to the US?

​Is China's Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony boycott to the US important? For semiconductor production we anticipate minimal impact due to low...

Jim Handy

Micron's strong HBM and Data Center growth helped offset declines elsewhere, but AI growth may slack, and China semi growth is a threat. #Micron...

Hyperscaler CapEx growth may be slowing as Microsoft cuts spending in Q4 while Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba increase theirs, leading to a...

The chip market saw 19% 2024 growth driven by AI semiconductors, but growth outside AI is modest. This is cause for concern. Meanwhile US trade...

The emergence of DeepSeek AI platform threatens current Large Language Models, causing stock tumbles for chip companies like Nvidia and Samsung....

Is China's Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony boycott to the US important? For semiconductor production we anticipate minimal impact due to low...