Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SK Hynix Expects 100% HBM Revenue Growth in 2025E After a Massive 2024 -- Which Means Traditional DRAM Doesn't Matter as Much Anymore</li>
<li>DeepSeek Market Fears -- A Problem for HBM &amp; Enterprise SSD Memory?</li>
<li>AI Industry Opportunities Are Not a Fixed Size Pie -- Will DeepSeek Impact HBM DRAM TAM? Why We Don't Think So</li>
</ul>


SK Hynix Expects 100% HBM Revenue Growth in 2025E After a Massive 2024 -- Which Means Traditional DRAM Doesn't Matter as Much Anymore
DeepSeek Market Fears -- A Problem for HBM &amp; Enterprise SSD Memory?
AI Industry Opportunities Are Not a Fixed Size Pie -- Will DeepSeek Impact HBM DRAM TAM? Why We Don't Think So


Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix & Micron's HBM DRAM Growth?

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Micron's Q1F25 met expectations on key metrics but the ~9% downward guidance for the current quarter sent the share price into a tailspin</li>
<li>Consumer-Related inventory issues and China competition were highlighted as the root causes for the surprise downward guide</li>
<li>Micron is ok to cede legacy products to China competition and focus instead on the much more lucrative leading edge products, especially HBM. The transition could be rocky however</li>
</ul>


Micron's Q1F25 met expectations on key metrics but the ~9% downward guidance for the current quarter sent the share price into a tailspin
Consumer-Related inventory issues and China competition were highlighted as the root causes for the surprise downward guide
Micron is ok to cede legacy products to China competition and focus instead on the much more lucrative leading edge products, especially HBM. The transition could be rocky however


Micron. So Long Legacy & Hello There HBM, Data Center & Leading Edge

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Earlier expectation on Micron will have rooms to raise becoming a reality, largely driven by over 30% q/q NAND bit price jump for storage business in 1Q24.</li>
<li>10ppts stronger 2Q24 sales guidance and 3-6ppts higher gross margin guidance are driving free cash flow improvement.</li>
<li>AI server, PC, and smartphone driving DRAM bit demand and HBM3e/HBM4 and 1-gamma EUV DRAM slowing bit supply growth both are positive except MOI remains 15% above 5 years average. </li>
</ul>


Earlier expectation on Micron will have rooms to raise becoming a reality, largely driven by over 30% q/q NAND bit price jump for storage business in 1Q24.
10ppts stronger 2Q24 sales guidance and 3-6ppts higher gross margin guidance are driving free cash flow improvement.
AI server, PC, and smartphone driving DRAM bit demand and HBM3e/HBM4 and 1-gamma EUV DRAM slowing bit supply growth both are positive except MOI remains 15% above 5 years average. 


The First Semi-Micron to Guide 2Q24; All Good News Except MOI

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Micron Technology Inc., a key player in the computer-memory chip industry, has faced significant headwinds, as evidenced by its recent revenue forecast, which missed analyst expectations.</li><li>The company projected fiscal second-quarter revenue of $7.9 billion, far below the average estimate of $8.99 billion, while profit forecasts also lagged significantly.</li><li>These results reflect sluggish demand in its largest markets—smartphones and personal computers—despite a notable surge in data center-related revenue and strong orders for artificial intelligence (AI) components.</li></ul>

Micron Technology Inc., a key player in the computer-memory chip industry, has faced significant headwinds, as evidenced by its recent revenue forecast, which missed analyst expectations.The company projected fiscal second-quarter revenue of $7.9 billion, far below the average estimate of $8.99 billion, while profit forecasts also lagged significantly.These results reflect sluggish demand in its largest markets—smartphones and personal computers—despite a notable surge in data center-related revenue and strong orders for artificial intelligence (AI) components.

Micron Bets Big on AI Chips Amid Sluggish Smartphone and PC Sales But Will It Work? - Major Drivers

<ul>
<li>Micron's Latest Outlook Disappoints &amp; Shares Fall; Decoupling Trade Between SK Hynix &amp; Nanya Tech Has Worked However</li>
<li>Smartphone AI Insights -- On-Device Local Search &amp; Context-Aware Interfaces Emerging as Key Local AI Needs</li>
<li>Conclusion -- Consider Swapping In MICRON as the Long Side of the Memory Decoupling Trade</li>
</ul>


Micron's Latest Outlook Disappoints &amp; Shares Fall; Decoupling Trade Between SK Hynix &amp; Nanya Tech Has Worked However
Smartphone AI Insights -- On-Device Local Search &amp; Context-Aware Interfaces Emerging as Key Local AI Needs
Conclusion -- Consider Swapping In MICRON as the Long Side of the Memory Decoupling Trade


Memory Monitor: The Emerging Mass-Market Edge AI Need for Mobiles; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Tech

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix & Micron's HBM DRAM Growth?

SK Hynix predicts 100% HBM revenue growth in 2025E, signaling a shift away from traditional DRAM importance. DeepSeek fears raise concerns for HBM...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron. So Long Legacy & Hello There HBM, Data Center & Leading Edge

Micron is ok to cede legacy products to China & focus instead on the much more lucrative leading edge products, especially HBM. The transition...

William Keating

The First Semi-Micron to Guide 2Q24; All Good News Except MOI

The First Semi-Micron to Guide 2Q24; All Good News Except MOI; AI server, PC, and smartphone driving DRAM bit demand and HBM3e/HBM4 and 1-gamma EUV...

Andrew Lu

Micron Bets Big on AI Chips Amid Sluggish Smartphone and PC Sales But Will It Work? - Major Drivers

Micron Technology Inc., a key player in the computer-memory chip industry, has faced significant headwinds, as evidenced by its recent revenue...

Baptista Research

Memory Monitor: The Emerging Mass-Market Edge AI Need for Mobiles; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Tech

Micron's outlook disappointed last week, but the decoupling trade of Long SK Hynix vs. Short Nanya Tech is working. Consider swapping in Micron as...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix & Micron's HBM DRAM Growth?

​SK Hynix predicts 100% HBM revenue growth in 2025E, signaling a shift away from traditional DRAM importance. DeepSeek fears raise concerns for HBM...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron. So Long Legacy & Hello There HBM, Data Center & Leading Edge

Micron is ok to cede legacy products to China & focus instead on the much more lucrative leading edge products, especially HBM. The transition...

William Keating

The First Semi-Micron to Guide 2Q24; All Good News Except MOI

The First Semi-Micron to Guide 2Q24; All Good News Except MOI; AI server, PC, and smartphone driving DRAM bit demand and HBM3e/HBM4 and 1-gamma EUV...

Andrew Lu

Micron Bets Big on AI Chips Amid Sluggish Smartphone and PC Sales But Will It Work? - Major Drivers

Micron Technology Inc., a key player in the computer-memory chip industry, has faced significant headwinds, as evidenced by its recent revenue...

Baptista Research

Memory Monitor: The Emerging Mass-Market Edge AI Need for Mobiles; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Tech

​Micron's outlook disappointed last week, but the decoupling trade of Long SK Hynix vs. Short Nanya Tech is working. Consider swapping in Micron as...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

SK Hynix predicts 100% HBM revenue growth in 2025E, signaling a shift away from traditional DRAM importance. DeepSeek fears raise concerns for HBM...

Micron's outlook disappointed last week, but the decoupling trade of Long SK Hynix vs. Short Nanya Tech is working. Consider swapping in Micron as...