Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

<ul>
<li>Amid Samsung Electronics announcing a huge buyback of 10 trillion won, one of the issues that has resurfaced is the potential sale of Samsung Electronics by Samsung Life Insurance.</li>
<li>The total amount of Samsung Electronics that could be sold by Samsung Life Insurance and Samsung F&amp;M Insurance is 25.6 trillion won (at current prices). </li>
<li>We remain Positive on Samsung Electronics. The 10 trillion won buyback program is a positive sign on the company's willingness to provide higher shareholder returns.</li>
</ul>


Amid Samsung Electronics announcing a huge buyback of 10 trillion won, one of the issues that has resurfaced is the potential sale of Samsung Electronics by Samsung Life Insurance.
The total amount of Samsung Electronics that could be sold by Samsung Life Insurance and Samsung F&amp;M Insurance is 25.6 trillion won (at current prices). 
We remain Positive on Samsung Electronics. The 10 trillion won buyback program is a positive sign on the company's willingness to provide higher shareholder returns.


A Step Closer to Samsung Life Insurance Finally Selling Its Shares in Samsung Electronics?

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The market's reaction to Samsung Fire's stake sale seems overhyped. Given past share sales, Life may outperform Fire as this momentum unfolds.</li>
<li>I don’t see SDS merging with Samsung Electronics. It lacks synergy and could stir up PR issues. If Sammy’s stock stalls, Lee Jae-yong might sell more of his SDS stake.</li>
<li>I’m still bullish on Sammy prefs. If the tax reform passes, a special dividend, not a buyback, will be the cleanest way for Samsung to address inheritance tax.</li>
</ul>


The market's reaction to Samsung Fire's stake sale seems overhyped. Given past share sales, Life may outperform Fire as this momentum unfolds.
I don’t see SDS merging with Samsung Electronics. It lacks synergy and could stir up PR issues. If Sammy’s stock stalls, Lee Jae-yong might sell more of his SDS stake.
I’m still bullish on Sammy prefs. If the tax reform passes, a special dividend, not a buyback, will be the cleanest way for Samsung to address inheritance tax.


My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

<ul>
<li>TSMC: more restrictions on export to China. TSMC can’t make 2nm in US before 2028-29. Lawsuit in Arizona.</li>
<li>Korea: special chips act to give chipmakers subsidies and an exemption from a national cap on working hours. Korean engineers only work 52 hours / week. That’s a problem.</li>
<li>Amazon more in-house AI chips. Super Micro trying to avoid delisting. Smartphone ASP keep increasing because chip prices are increasing (ie Mediatek, Qualcomm). AI PC reaching 20% in 3Q214. </li>
</ul>


TSMC: more restrictions on export to China. TSMC can’t make 2nm in US before 2028-29. Lawsuit in Arizona.
Korea: special chips act to give chipmakers subsidies and an exemption from a national cap on working hours. Korean engineers only work 52 hours / week. That’s a problem.
Amazon more in-house AI chips. Super Micro trying to avoid delisting. Smartphone ASP keep increasing because chip prices are increasing (ie Mediatek, Qualcomm). AI PC reaching 20% in 3Q214. 


Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC

<ul>
<li>TSMC cash dividend has increased by 65% in 2 years or NT$2.75 in 4Q22 to NT$4.50 in 3Q24. It will keep increasing.</li>
<li>TSMC is spinning cash. 2nm-16A could increase Capex intensity but still we estimate that quarterly dividend can increase to NT$5.50 in 2025 and NT$6.00 in 2026.</li>
<li>Consensus forecasts similar EPS growth for TSMC and ASML: 30% in 2025, 20% in 2026. TSMC is 50% cheaper than ASML. 2025 PEx: TSMC 18x and ASML 28x.</li>
</ul>


TSMC cash dividend has increased by 65% in 2 years or NT$2.75 in 4Q22 to NT$4.50 in 3Q24. It will keep increasing.
TSMC is spinning cash. 2nm-16A could increase Capex intensity but still we estimate that quarterly dividend can increase to NT$5.50 in 2025 and NT$6.00 in 2026.
Consensus forecasts similar EPS growth for TSMC and ASML: 30% in 2025, 20% in 2026. TSMC is 50% cheaper than ASML. 2025 PEx: TSMC 18x and ASML 28x.


TSMC Has Increased Its Dividend. Again. It Will Keep Increasing.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Fabrinet offers outsourced process engineering and manufacturing services.  The Company contracts to manufacture optical communications, automotive, industrial, and imaging components, sub-assemblies, and modules for its original equipment manufacturer customers.

<ul><li>Fabrinet's first-quarter results for fiscal year 2025 reveal both promising growth and challenges.</li><li>With a revenue of $804 million, the company surpassed the upper end of its guidance range, representing a 17% year-over-year increase and a 7% sequential rise from the previous quarter.</li><li>This growth was driven by significant performances in its major operating segments, particularly in optical communications.</li></ul>

Fabrinet's first-quarter results for fiscal year 2025 reveal both promising growth and challenges.With a revenue of $804 million, the company surpassed the upper end of its guidance range, representing a 17% year-over-year increase and a 7% sequential rise from the previous quarter.This growth was driven by significant performances in its major operating segments, particularly in optical communications.

Fabrinet - Fabrinet: An Insight Into Its Automotive & Industrial Innovation & Other Major Drivers

Insights on Companies in the NVIDIA Supply Chain

NVIDIA Supply Chain
Insights on Companies in the NVIDIA Supply Chain

A Step Closer to Samsung Life Insurance Finally Selling Its Shares in Samsung Electronics?

Amid Samsung Electronics announcing a huge buyback of 10 trillion won, one of the issues that has resurfaced is the potential sale of Samsung...

Douglas Kim

My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

This post contains my personal view on the three scenarios triggered by Samsung Electronics' buyback that shook the market today.

Sanghyun Park

Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC

TSMC faces export restrictions to China. Korea offers subsidies to chipmakers, but faces labor issue. Amazon ramps up AI chip production. Chip...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC Has Increased Its Dividend. Again. It Will Keep Increasing.

TSMC's cash dividend has surged by 65% in 2 years and is expected to keep increasing. Consensus forecasts show TSMC's EPS growth matching ASML's,...

Nicolas Baratte

Fabrinet - Fabrinet: An Insight Into Its Automotive & Industrial Innovation & Other Major Drivers

Fabrinet's first-quarter results for fiscal year 2025 reveal both promising growth and challenges. With a revenue of $804 million, the company...

Baptista Research

A Step Closer to Samsung Life Insurance Finally Selling Its Shares in Samsung Electronics?

Amid Samsung Electronics announcing a huge buyback of 10 trillion won, one of the issues that has resurfaced is the potential sale of Samsung...

Douglas Kim

My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

This post contains my personal view on the three scenarios triggered by Samsung Electronics' buyback that shook the market today.

Sanghyun Park

Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC

​TSMC faces export restrictions to China. Korea offers subsidies to chipmakers, but faces labor issue. Amazon ramps up AI chip production. Chip...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC Has Increased Its Dividend. Again. It Will Keep Increasing.

​TSMC's cash dividend has surged by 65% in 2 years and is expected to keep increasing. Consensus forecasts show TSMC's EPS growth matching ASML's,...

Nicolas Baratte

Fabrinet - Fabrinet: An Insight Into Its Automotive & Industrial Innovation & Other Major Drivers

Fabrinet's first-quarter results for fiscal year 2025 reveal both promising growth and challenges. With a revenue of $804 million, the company...

Baptista Research

TSMC faces export restrictions to China. Korea offers subsidies to chipmakers, but faces labor issue. Amazon ramps up AI chip production. Chip...

TSMC's cash dividend has surged by 65% in 2 years and is expected to keep increasing. Consensus forecasts show TSMC's EPS growth matching ASML's,...