Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects in some companies —with some companies benefitting due to their exposure—.</li>
<li>Adverse weather conditions are also expected to weigh on results. We thus forecast sales growth of 6% (9% on a median basis), with EBITDA growth of 1% (4% on a median basis).</li>
<li>We expect only 3 companies within our coverage to post flat or improving margins. In Consumer, we are keeping our ratings unchanged, with minor adjustments to PTs. </li>
</ul>


We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects in some companies —with some companies benefitting due to their exposure—.
Adverse weather conditions are also expected to weigh on results. We thus forecast sales growth of 6% (9% on a median basis), with EBITDA growth of 1% (4% on a median basis).
We expect only 3 companies within our coverage to post flat or improving margins. In Consumer, we are keeping our ratings unchanged, with minor adjustments to PTs. 


Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 1Q25 Preview

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

<ul><li data-start="0" data-end="98">Japan faces GDP downgrades and a strong yen, but labour shortages support domestic resilience.</li><li data-start="99" data-end="186">U.S. reindustrialization plans clash with tight labour markets and inflation risks.</li><li data-start="187" data-end="299">Global uncertainty persists amid U.S. tariffs, limited rate cuts, and diverging economic trajectories in Asia.</li></ul>

Japan faces GDP downgrades and a strong yen, but labour shortages support domestic resilience.U.S. reindustrialization plans clash with tight labour markets and inflation risks.Global uncertainty persists amid U.S. tariffs, limited rate cuts, and diverging economic trajectories in Asia.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 17 April 2025

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul><li>An unrevised final HICP print confirmed the disinflationary space driving the ECB to cut again in April, despite growing desire to slow easing before it becomes stimulative.</li><li>The median inflation impulse remains at, or slightly below, the target. However, other statistical measures are stickier and labour costs are fundamentally growing too fast.</li><li>EURUSD appreciation compounds disinflationary energy price pressures to trigger another likely slowing in April that might dovishly surprise the consensus again.</li></ul>

An unrevised final HICP print confirmed the disinflationary space driving the ECB to cut again in April, despite growing desire to slow easing before it becomes stimulative.The median inflation impulse remains at, or slightly below, the target. However, other statistical measures are stickier and labour costs are fundamentally growing too fast.EURUSD appreciation compounds disinflationary energy price pressures to trigger another likely slowing in April that might dovishly surprise the consensus again.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The government announced measures of SEK 11.5bn in the Spring budget bill for 2025, as expected, and is prepared to take action if the economic situation worsens.</li><li>The budget contains discretionary reforms totalling SEK 11.5bn for 2025.</li><li>The Spring bill consists of measures aiming to support households, the labour market and defence.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The government announced measures of SEK 11.5bn in the Spring budget bill for 2025, as expected, and is prepared to take action if the economic situation worsens.The budget contains discretionary reforms totalling SEK 11.5bn for 2025.The Spring bill consists of measures aiming to support households, the labour market and defence.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sweden Spring Bill 2025 review: Slightly expansionary

<ul><li>A supermarket price war hit food prices, slowing UK CPI inflation below the headline consensus again. Upside news in clothing was offset by downside in game prices.</li><li>Repeating 2008’s experience would drive a game price rebound, but the food effect is more likely to persist. The median inflationary impulse should also rebound soon.</li><li>Unit wage costs remain inconsistent with the target, while energy and water utility bills will drive a massive jump in April. We still forecast a final 25bp BoE rate cut in May.</li></ul>

A supermarket price war hit food prices, slowing UK CPI inflation below the headline consensus again. Upside news in clothing was offset by downside in game prices.Repeating 2008’s experience would drive a game price rebound, but the food effect is more likely to persist. The median inflationary impulse should also rebound soon.Unit wage costs remain inconsistent with the target, while energy and water utility bills will drive a massive jump in April. We still forecast a final 25bp BoE rate cut in May.

Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics Insights

Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 1Q25 Preview

We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects...

Actinver

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 17 April 2025

Japan faces GDP downgrades and a strong yen, but labour shortages support domestic resilience. U.S. reindustrialization plans clash with tight...

Dr. Jim Walker

EA Disinflation Confirmed For ECB Doves

An unrevised final HICP print confirmed the disinflationary space driving the ECB to cut again in April, despite growing desire to slow easing...

Phil Rush

Sweden Spring Bill 2025 review: Slightly expansionary

The government announced measures of SEK 11.5bn in the Spring budget bill for 2025, as expected, and is prepared to take action if the economic...

Nordea

UK: Price War Dents Spring Inflation

A supermarket price war hit food prices, slowing UK CPI inflation below the headline consensus again. Upside news in clothing was offset by...

Phil Rush