Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.</li><li>These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we’re bringing them directly to you.</li><li>While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.</li></ul>

Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we’re bringing them directly to you.While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.

Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from me! This will be the last update before the festive season, and I hope you will have a relaxed and enjoyable time with your loved ones.</li><li>It has been a big year for me personally with the launch of Asgard-Steno Global Macro.</li><li>Despite Powell pulling the rug from under the Christmas rally, we are off to a decent start and expect to deliver strong returns in choppy markets in 2025, where the macro direction will be challenged by several factors.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from me! This will be the last update before the festive season, and I hope you will have a relaxed and enjoyable time with your loved ones.It has been a big year for me personally with the launch of Asgard-Steno Global Macro.Despite Powell pulling the rug from under the Christmas rally, we are off to a decent start and expect to deliver strong returns in choppy markets in 2025, where the macro direction will be challenged by several factors.

Steno Signals #177 – Another ill-timed flip-flop from Jay Powell?

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<ul>
<li>The Swiss and Canadian central banks cut their respective policy rates by 50 basis points. The former faces currency appreciation and deflationary risks. Canada faces higher unemployment and deteriorating growth.</li>
<li>The European Central Bank is taking a gradual policy easing path in 2025. Policy outlooks for the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England are more data dependent.</li>
<li>The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points as expected, but fewer reductions are now expected in 2025 due to a more robust economic outlook compared to September.</li>
</ul>


The Swiss and Canadian central banks cut their respective policy rates by 50 basis points. The former faces currency appreciation and deflationary risks. Canada faces higher unemployment and deteriorating growth.
The European Central Bank is taking a gradual policy easing path in 2025. Policy outlooks for the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England are more data dependent.
The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points as expected, but fewer reductions are now expected in 2025 due to a more robust economic outlook compared to September.


Global Monetary Easing Cycle Becomes More Idiosyncratic

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The Riksbank lowered the policy rate by 25bp to 2.50% as widely expected.</li><li>According to the bank, “if the outlook for inflation and economic activity remains unchanged, the policy rate may be cut once again during the first half of 2025”.</li><li>First impression: Hawkish Policy rate: Cut to 2.50% Rate path: The rate path indicates a possibility of one more rate cut next year. The end-point at 2.25% in Q4 2027 (previous 2.25% in Q3 2027)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Riksbank lowered the policy rate by 25bp to 2.50% as widely expected.According to the bank, “if the outlook for inflation and economic activity remains unchanged, the policy rate may be cut once again during the first half of 2025”.First impression: Hawkish Policy rate: Cut to 2.50% Rate path: The rate path indicates a possibility of one more rate cut next year. The end-point at 2.25% in Q4 2027 (previous 2.25% in Q3 2027)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>“The time to ease monetary policy is approaching” has been the mantra since the September report.</li><li>Today Norges Bank indicated clearly that the first cut will arrive in March next year:</li><li>“Based on the Committee’s current assessment of the outlook, the policy rate will most likely be reduced in March 2025”At the same time, Norges Bank also acknowledged that the need for rate cuts ahead has diminished somewhat on the back of stronger than expected growth so far but also due to a significantly more stimulative fiscal policy next year.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

“The time to ease monetary policy is approaching” has been the mantra since the September report.Today Norges Bank indicated clearly that the first cut will arrive in March next year:“Based on the Committee’s current assessment of the outlook, the policy rate will most likely be reduced in March 2025”At the same time, Norges Bank also acknowledged that the need for rate cuts ahead has diminished somewhat on the back of stronger than expected growth so far but also due to a significantly more stimulative fiscal policy next year.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics Insights

Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!

Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro. These...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #177 – Another ill-timed flip-flop from Jay Powell?

Happy Sunday from me! This will be the last update before the festive season, and I hope you will have a relaxed and enjoyable time with your...

Steno Research

Global Monetary Easing Cycle Becomes More Idiosyncratic

The global monetary easing cycle has become more idiosyncratic, as central banks face differing risks, ranging from deflation to potential...

DeSaque Macro Research

Riksbank flash-comment: Hawkish cut

According to the bank, “if the outlook for inflation and economic activity remains unchanged, the policy rate may be cut once again during the...

Nordea

Norges Bank Review: Higher Rate Path

The time to ease monetary policy is approaching” has been the mantra since the September report.Today Norges Bank indicated clearly that the first...

Nordea