Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>With the US and China distracted from stabilizing the world geopolitical order, flare-ups and stresses will occur more frequently as various actors feel emboldened to undertake risky gambits. </li>
<li>The world, including emerging Asia, will have to contend with "much higher for much longer" geopolitical risk and its aftereffects on global trade, investments, and financial markets. </li>
<li>But most economies in the region retain agency to adapt to a more hostile environment by bolstering internal resilience and forming new coalitions of the willing to pursue shared objectives. </li>
</ul>


With the US and China distracted from stabilizing the world geopolitical order, flare-ups and stresses will occur more frequently as various actors feel emboldened to undertake risky gambits. 
The world, including emerging Asia, will have to contend with "much higher for much longer" geopolitical risk and its aftereffects on global trade, investments, and financial markets. 
But most economies in the region retain agency to adapt to a more hostile environment by bolstering internal resilience and forming new coalitions of the willing to pursue shared objectives. 


Strategic Outlook 2025: Winter Is Coming, Can Asia Keep Itself Warm?

<ul>
<li>The BJP of Indian premier Modi convincingly won the Maharashtra state elections despite losing ground in the state’s parliamentary seats in the June 2025 general election. </li>
<li>The Maharashtra result was not a one-off.  The ruling coalition managed to hold its ground against the previously resurgent INDIA opposition bloc in other state contests.    </li>
<li>Modi and his party have corrected course sufficiently to stem any electoral bleeding, but risks from economic discontent and corruption-related controversies continue to weigh on public support. </li>
</ul>


The BJP of Indian premier Modi convincingly won the Maharashtra state elections despite losing ground in the state’s parliamentary seats in the June 2025 general election. 
The Maharashtra result was not a one-off.  The ruling coalition managed to hold its ground against the previously resurgent INDIA opposition bloc in other state contests.    
Modi and his party have corrected course sufficiently to stem any electoral bleeding, but risks from economic discontent and corruption-related controversies continue to weigh on public support. 


India Politics: Modi and BJP Stabilize Support After State-Level Wins

<ul>
<li>The tentative green shoots in consumer and business demand seen in the latest data are likely due to one-off factors.  A sustained recovery is still some distance away. </li>
<li>The fundamental underpinnings of domestic demand remain shaky, given continued weakness in the labour and property markets and external uncertainties. </li>
<li>Moreover, with the trade war likely to be escalated by the next US administration, the Chinese economy may suffer material damage from a more hostile external environment. </li>
</ul>


The tentative green shoots in consumer and business demand seen in the latest data are likely due to one-off factors.  A sustained recovery is still some distance away. 
The fundamental underpinnings of domestic demand remain shaky, given continued weakness in the labour and property markets and external uncertainties. 
Moreover, with the trade war likely to be escalated by the next US administration, the Chinese economy may suffer material damage from a more hostile external environment. 


China Economics: Don't Celebrate October’s Uptick Just Yet

<ul>
<li>Asia Pacific economies benefit from a global order which preserves their sovereignty and allows them to prosper.  Trump’s return puts some of these benefits at risk. </li>
<li>Washington under Trump will continue to pursue its rivalry with Beijing, but Trump’s responses to crises in Ukraine and the Middle East could leave instability in its wake.  =</li>
<li>Washington’s allies in Asia will start “Trump-proofing” their defence strategies.  Countries will hedge between the US and China while ramping up military spending.  </li>
</ul>


Asia Pacific economies benefit from a global order which preserves their sovereignty and allows them to prosper.  Trump’s return puts some of these benefits at risk. 
Washington under Trump will continue to pursue its rivalry with Beijing, but Trump’s responses to crises in Ukraine and the Middle East could leave instability in its wake.  =
Washington’s allies in Asia will start “Trump-proofing” their defence strategies.  Countries will hedge between the US and China while ramping up military spending.  


Asia Geopolitics: Dealing with a More Trumpian World

<ul>
<li>Leading indicators of trade volumes in the Asia Pacific region are flashing warning signs as economic and geopolitical headwinds start to grow. </li>
<li>Export orders have been contracting as firms are defensive over the demand outlook. The pivotal electronics and automobile sectors are also facing speedbumps. </li>
<li>While data on goods movements and raw materials are still relative bright spots, the region may have to be braced for a premature tapering in the external sector recovery. </li>
</ul>


Leading indicators of trade volumes in the Asia Pacific region are flashing warning signs as economic and geopolitical headwinds start to grow. 
Export orders have been contracting as firms are defensive over the demand outlook. The pivotal electronics and automobile sectors are also facing speedbumps. 
While data on goods movements and raw materials are still relative bright spots, the region may have to be braced for a premature tapering in the external sector recovery. 


Regional Economics: Trouble Ahead for Asian Trade?

Centennial Asia Advisors
Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Strategic Outlook 2025: Winter Is Coming, Can Asia Keep Itself Warm?

As the US and China get distracted with internal difficulties, be prepared for a world where geopolitical tensions become more common and severe.

Manu Bhaskaran

India Politics: Modi and BJP Stabilize Support After State-Level Wins

While the BJP clawed back lost ground with its landslide win in Maharashtra's state election, the ruling party will still have to handle...

Manu Bhaskaran

China Economics: Don't Celebrate October’s Uptick Just Yet

Readers should be wary of being carried away by October's seemingly favourable data even as the prospect of a Trump trade war clouds the outlook...

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Geopolitics: Dealing with a More Trumpian World

Trump's return to the White House implies a riskier world that countries in the Asia Pacific will have to deal with. Expect foreign policy hedging...

Manu Bhaskaran

Regional Economics: Trouble Ahead for Asian Trade?

Warning signs are emerging for trade in Asia as export orders contract and key sectors face challenges, suggesting a potential premature tapering...

Manu Bhaskaran

Strategic Outlook 2025: Winter Is Coming, Can Asia Keep Itself Warm?

As the US and China get distracted with internal difficulties, be prepared for a world where geopolitical tensions become more common and severe.

Manu Bhaskaran

India Politics: Modi and BJP Stabilize Support After State-Level Wins

While the BJP clawed back lost ground with its landslide win in Maharashtra's state election, the ruling party will still have to handle...

Manu Bhaskaran

China Economics: Don't Celebrate October’s Uptick Just Yet

Readers should be wary of being carried away by October's seemingly favourable data even as the prospect of a Trump trade war clouds the outlook...

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Geopolitics: Dealing with a More Trumpian World

Trump's return to the White House implies a riskier world that countries in the Asia Pacific will have to deal with. Expect foreign policy hedging...

Manu Bhaskaran

Regional Economics: Trouble Ahead for Asian Trade?

​Warning signs are emerging for trade in Asia as export orders contract and key sectors face challenges, suggesting a potential premature tapering...

Manu Bhaskaran

Warning signs are emerging for trade in Asia as export orders contract and key sectors face challenges, suggesting a potential premature tapering...