Global Macro Strategist, Westbourne Research Services

Sharmila Whelan

Global Macro Strategist

Macroeconomic, Geopolitical and Policy Forecasting

Westbourne Research Services

Westbourne Research is a global macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy forecasting and strategic advisory consultancy. Located in London, UK and serving clients globally. Our knowledge is deep, spanning all asset classes and key industrial sectors. Our perspective is global. Our presence is expansive, with 30 years analysing and working in developed and emerging markets. We are uniquely India and China specialists.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Overweight, Japanese equities and private equity. Underweight JGBs and hedge against yen weakness</li>
<li>Japanese business cycle indicators remain broadly positive, underpinning continued economic recovery and corporate earnings growth.</li>
<li>Mortgage are rising, a positive for construction &amp; consumption. However, spending is moderating despite strong nominal wage growth. Consumption rather than exports is the biggest uncertainty to the outlook.</li>
</ul>


Overweight, Japanese equities and private equity. Underweight JGBs and hedge against yen weakness
Japanese business cycle indicators remain broadly positive, underpinning continued economic recovery and corporate earnings growth.
Mortgage are rising, a positive for construction &amp; consumption. However, spending is moderating despite strong nominal wage growth. Consumption rather than exports is the biggest uncertainty to the outlook.


<ul>
<li>We went long Taiwan equities end-2023 in expectation of regional outperformance. The TAIEX is up 31% CYTD. It has further to run. Ignore geopolitics, stay overweight equities and the NT$.</li>
<li>The economic and corporate earnings outlooks are positive. The Taiwanese business cycle is in a broad-based upswing.  Corporate fundamentals are healthy. The investment and credit cycles are strengthening. </li>
<li>Meanwhile China dependence is declining.  Exporters are diversifying away, and manufacturers are sensibly hedging against geopolitical risks and the Chinese economy by investing beyond.</li>
</ul>


We went long Taiwan equities end-2023 in expectation of regional outperformance. The TAIEX is up 31% CYTD. It has further to run. Ignore geopolitics, stay overweight equities and the NT$.
The economic and corporate earnings outlooks are positive. The Taiwanese business cycle is in a broad-based upswing.  Corporate fundamentals are healthy. The investment and credit cycles are strengthening. 
Meanwhile China dependence is declining.  Exporters are diversifying away, and manufacturers are sensibly hedging against geopolitical risks and the Chinese economy by investing beyond.


<ul>
<li>Underweight US and European sovereigns, overweight Indian, Indonesian, Taiwanese and Korean. Fiscal dynamics are much more favourable and coupon rates attractive. </li>
<li>The pandemic might be over but in the current era of fiscal and political activism public debt continues to rise globally, and is forecast to reach 114% by 2029.</li>
<li>A fiscal crisis is not imminent. However, the downside risks are rising for the US as the dollar’s role as the global reserve currency diminishes. Europe is equally worrying.</li>
</ul>


Underweight US and European sovereigns, overweight Indian, Indonesian, Taiwanese and Korean. Fiscal dynamics are much more favourable and coupon rates attractive. 
The pandemic might be over but in the current era of fiscal and political activism public debt continues to rise globally, and is forecast to reach 114% by 2029.
A fiscal crisis is not imminent. However, the downside risks are rising for the US as the dollar’s role as the global reserve currency diminishes. Europe is equally worrying.


<ul>
<li>We initiated a tactical short on the BSE Sensex on 24 September, anticipating a shift from Indian to Chinese stocks following China's latest stimulus. The index has since dropped 7.5%.</li>
<li>This is a short trading call for hedge fund investors, for buy and hold investors the correction is a Diwali Bonus, an opportunity to increase exposure by buying-on-dip. </li>
<li>Three years on, we remain strategically overweight in Indian equities and bonds, as India’s strengthening business cycle and solid fundamentals position it for multi-year growth.</li>
</ul>


We initiated a tactical short on the BSE Sensex on 24 September, anticipating a shift from Indian to Chinese stocks following China's latest stimulus. The index has since dropped 7.5%.
This is a short trading call for hedge fund investors, for buy and hold investors the correction is a Diwali Bonus, an opportunity to increase exposure by buying-on-dip. 
Three years on, we remain strategically overweight in Indian equities and bonds, as India’s strengthening business cycle and solid fundamentals position it for multi-year growth.


Westbourne Research Services
Macroeconomic, Geopolitical and Policy Forecasting

Japan: Where to Next?

Maintain an overweight on equities but hedge against yen weakness. Japanese business cycle indicators remain broadly positive, underpinning...

Sharmila Whelan

The Taiwan Question

Expect Taiwan equities to continue outperforming due to positive economic and corporate outlooks, despite declining China dependence and...

Sharmila Whelan

Investing In The Era Of Fiscal Activism

Diversify out of US and European sovereigns into Indian, Indonesia, Taiwanese and Korean. In the current era of fiscal and political activism...

Sharmila Whelan

India: Diwali Bonus

Since our tactical short on the BSE Sensex on 24 September, the index has dropped 7.5%. This dip presents a buying opportunity, as India remains a...

Sharmila Whelan

Japan: Where to Next?

Maintain an overweight on equities but hedge against yen weakness. Japanese business cycle indicators remain broadly positive, underpinning...

Sharmila Whelan

The Taiwan Question

​Expect Taiwan equities to continue outperforming due to positive economic and corporate outlooks, despite declining China dependence and...

Sharmila Whelan

Investing In The Era Of Fiscal Activism

Diversify out of US and European sovereigns into Indian, Indonesia, Taiwanese and Korean. In the current era of fiscal and political activism...

Sharmila Whelan

India: Diwali Bonus

Since our tactical short on the BSE Sensex on 24 September, the index has dropped 7.5%. This dip presents a buying opportunity, as India remains a...

Sharmila Whelan

Expect Taiwan equities to continue outperforming due to positive economic and corporate outlooks, despite declining China dependence and...