Political Analyst, Heteronomics

Alastair Newton

Political Analyst

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The incoming Labour government is prioritizing securing a second term from the start.</li><li>The promised "change" in their manifesto will be gradual, aiming for a modest boost in economic growth.</li><li>More radical measures are anticipated to be implemented in the potential second term.</li></ul>

The incoming Labour government is prioritizing securing a second term from the start.The promised "change" in their manifesto will be gradual, aiming for a modest boost in economic growth.More radical measures are anticipated to be implemented in the potential second term.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Despite more than doubling in the past 4 years, the BSE-Sensex is fairly valued (trailing P/E of 24.04x) relative to its 10-year mean (23.93x)-- helped by sustained EPS growth. </li>
<li>The trailing P/E is above the 20-year (21.34x) and 30-year mean (20.4x), but those reflect weaker growth prospects in earlier decades. 10yr mean better reflects new normal 8% RGDP growth.  </li>
<li>Net FPI inflows reached a record USD10.14bn in Dec'23, when the market was similarly valued. FPI flows into equity were minimal in H1CY24, but likely to rebound. Stay moderately Overweight. </li>
</ul>


Despite more than doubling in the past 4 years, the BSE-Sensex is fairly valued (trailing P/E of 24.04x) relative to its 10-year mean (23.93x)-- helped by sustained EPS growth. 
The trailing P/E is above the 20-year (21.34x) and 30-year mean (20.4x), but those reflect weaker growth prospects in earlier decades. 10yr mean better reflects new normal 8% RGDP growth.  
Net FPI inflows reached a record USD10.14bn in Dec'23, when the market was similarly valued. FPI flows into equity were minimal in H1CY24, but likely to rebound. Stay moderately Overweight. 


India: Growth Ensures that the Market Is Not Too Expensive Despite Big 4yr Runup

Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Founder & Head of Research

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

Premium Economic & Investment Research

<ul>
<li>The 3 plenum July 15-18 will likely see some additional measures that will support or stimulate China economy.  However, they are unlikely to be game changers.</li>
<li>Major points to observe include unemployment and healthcare benefit boost, Hukou fine tuning, discussion about inheritance tax, and the 2-4 trillion Yuan of buying most unsold homes.</li>
<li>Deepening of reform especially in boosting innovation and upgrading consumption will also be touched on, but there will seem no short-term effective measures.</li>
</ul>


The 3 plenum July 15-18 will likely see some additional measures that will support or stimulate China economy.  However, they are unlikely to be game changers.
Major points to observe include unemployment and healthcare benefit boost, Hukou fine tuning, discussion about inheritance tax, and the 2-4 trillion Yuan of buying most unsold homes.
Deepening of reform especially in boosting innovation and upgrading consumption will also be touched on, but there will seem no short-term effective measures.


Preview to the 3rd Plenum of Chinese Communist Party

<ul>
<li>In a recent forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang is confident that Chinese economy was stagnant simply because of COVID. Now that COVID has gone, Chinese economy will eventually heal itself.</li>
<li>We believe rather Chinese economy will still be bumpy after COVID, with three major arrows against Chinese Economy, namely property sector slump, local government debt, and weak private sector.</li>
<li>Instead of the "self recovery" view of the economy proposed by Li, we believe government should more actively roll out fiscal and monetary stimulus.</li>
</ul>


In a recent forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang is confident that Chinese economy was stagnant simply because of COVID. Now that COVID has gone, Chinese economy will eventually heal itself.
We believe rather Chinese economy will still be bumpy after COVID, with three major arrows against Chinese Economy, namely property sector slump, local government debt, and weak private sector.
Instead of the "self recovery" view of the economy proposed by Li, we believe government should more actively roll out fiscal and monetary stimulus.


Response to Premier Li: Post COVID Chinese Economy

<ul>
<li>After a 0.99%MoM annualised rise in May'24, core PCE inflation eased to 2.57%YoY -- lower than the 2.6%YoY end-CY24 projection that the FOMC believed was compatible with 3 rate cuts. </li>
<li>While the FOMC initially signalled QT in Jun'22, base money increased each month during Jul'23-Feb'24, contributing to higher inflation. Contracting base money since Mar'24 was key to moderating MoM inflation.</li>
<li>Core PCE will likely rise 2%QoQ (annualised) in Q2CY24, and 2.5%YoY in Jun'24. The release of those numbers six days before FOMC decision (31/7/24) will likely trigger Jul'24 rate cut. </li>
</ul>


After a 0.99%MoM annualised rise in May'24, core PCE inflation eased to 2.57%YoY -- lower than the 2.6%YoY end-CY24 projection that the FOMC believed was compatible with 3 rate cuts. 
While the FOMC initially signalled QT in Jun'22, base money increased each month during Jul'23-Feb'24, contributing to higher inflation. Contracting base money since Mar'24 was key to moderating MoM inflation.
Core PCE will likely rise 2%QoQ (annualised) in Q2CY24, and 2.5%YoY in Jun'24. The release of those numbers six days before FOMC decision (31/7/24) will likely trigger Jul'24 rate cut. 


US: Receding Inflation Has Put 3 Rate Cuts Back in Play for 2024

Macro
Macro Insights

UK Politics: The Morning After

The incoming Labour government is prioritizing securing a second term from the start. The promised "change" in their manifesto will be gradual,...

Alastair Newton

India: Growth Ensures that the Market Is Not Too Expensive Despite Big 4yr Runup

Sensex trailing P/E of 24.04x is near 10yr mean of 23.93x, reflecting sustained EPS growth. Net FPI inflows hit a record USD10bn in Dec'23, when...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Preview to the 3rd Plenum of Chinese Communist Party

The 3rd plenum in China will address key points including unemployment and healthcare benefits, Hukou reform, inheritance tax, and housing market...

Alex Ng

Response to Premier Li: Post COVID Chinese Economy

Chinese Premier Li Qiang believes the economy will recover on its own post-COVID, but we warn of potential challenges ahead, suggesting stronger...

Alex Ng

US: Receding Inflation Has Put 3 Rate Cuts Back in Play for 2024

Core PCE rose 0.99%MoM annualised in May'24, as genuine QT occurred in Apr-May'24. The 25th July release of 2%QoQ and 2.5%YoY rises in core PCE...

Prasenjit K. Basu

UK Politics: The Morning After

The incoming Labour government is prioritizing securing a second term from the start. The promised "change" in their manifesto will be gradual,...

Alastair Newton

India: Growth Ensures that the Market Is Not Too Expensive Despite Big 4yr Runup

​Sensex trailing P/E of 24.04x is near 10yr mean of 23.93x, reflecting sustained EPS growth. Net FPI inflows hit a record USD10bn in Dec'23, when...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Preview to the 3rd Plenum of Chinese Communist Party

​The 3rd plenum in China will address key points including unemployment and healthcare benefits, Hukou reform, inheritance tax, and housing market...

Alex Ng

Response to Premier Li: Post COVID Chinese Economy

​Chinese Premier Li Qiang believes the economy will recover on its own post-COVID, but we warn of potential challenges ahead, suggesting stronger...

Alex Ng

US: Receding Inflation Has Put 3 Rate Cuts Back in Play for 2024

Core PCE rose 0.99%MoM annualised in May'24, as genuine QT occurred in Apr-May'24. The 25th July release of 2%QoQ and 2.5%YoY rises in core PCE...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Sensex trailing P/E of 24.04x is near 10yr mean of 23.93x, reflecting sustained EPS growth. Net FPI inflows hit a record USD10bn in Dec'23, when...

The 3rd plenum in China will address key points including unemployment and healthcare benefits, Hukou reform, inheritance tax, and housing market...

Chinese Premier Li Qiang believes the economy will recover on its own post-COVID, but we warn of potential challenges ahead, suggesting stronger...