Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
India: RBI rate decision on 9 April, 0.25% cut expected.</li>
<li>
CPI Release: Several economies release CPI data next week, while central banks update their forecasts and scenarios with the recently released US tariffs.</li>
<li>
Monthly Option Expiries: in India (BSE Stock options), Japan (Nikkei, Topix, Stocks), and South Korea (Kospi 200). The BSE moved the expiry one day forward due to a holiday.</li>
</ul>



India: RBI rate decision on 9 April, 0.25% cut expected.

CPI Release: Several economies release CPI data next week, while central banks update their forecasts and scenarios with the recently released US tariffs.

Monthly Option Expiries: in India (BSE Stock options), Japan (Nikkei, Topix, Stocks), and South Korea (Kospi 200). The BSE moved the expiry one day forward due to a holiday.


Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (7 - 13 April)

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The initial target range for the S&amp;P in the US bear market is 4800 to 5000. This level also coincides with the technical level of -20% from the top.</li>
<li>The stock market and economy in the US are highly co-dependent, and the bear market will cause consumption to fall more than in previous market downturns.</li>
<li>Foreign investors have started to reduce their overweight US allocations quickly.  Retiree "Sequence of Returns Risk" will add to selling pressure in the US market.</li>
</ul>


The initial target range for the S&amp;P in the US bear market is 4800 to 5000. This level also coincides with the technical level of -20% from the top.
The stock market and economy in the US are highly co-dependent, and the bear market will cause consumption to fall more than in previous market downturns.
Foreign investors have started to reduce their overweight US allocations quickly.  Retiree "Sequence of Returns Risk" will add to selling pressure in the US market.


Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>That “Oh sh#t moment” has just struck many investors in US markets</li>
<li>Within Hong Kong , Tech most at risk as investors take profit</li>
<li>Our alternative sector selection  has performed both absolutely and in relative terms</li>
</ul>


That “Oh sh#t moment” has just struck many investors in US markets
Within Hong Kong , Tech most at risk as investors take profit
Our alternative sector selection  has performed both absolutely and in relative terms


Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 1:  Hong Kong Strategy

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Policy volatility/uncertainty has generated negative surprises in inflation, especially with core PCE rising 0.3%MoM in Jan'25 and 0.4%MoM in Feb'25, causing the YoY increase of 2.8% in Feb'25.  </li>
<li>M2 growth was only 4.4%YoY in Feb'25, certainly not an inflationary factor.  The 'reciprocal tariffs' (an effective new tariff of 20% across the board) will add 0.4pp to near-term inflation. </li>
<li>10yr-2yr yield curve remains upward sloping (+0.29pp); tariffs are just 1/4th those of Smoot-Hawley, and unlike them will likely result in mutual tariff reductions. The selloff is a buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Policy volatility/uncertainty has generated negative surprises in inflation, especially with core PCE rising 0.3%MoM in Jan'25 and 0.4%MoM in Feb'25, causing the YoY increase of 2.8% in Feb'25.  
M2 growth was only 4.4%YoY in Feb'25, certainly not an inflationary factor.  The 'reciprocal tariffs' (an effective new tariff of 20% across the board) will add 0.4pp to near-term inflation. 
10yr-2yr yield curve remains upward sloping (+0.29pp); tariffs are just 1/4th those of Smoot-Hawley, and unlike them will likely result in mutual tariff reductions. The selloff is a buying opportunity.


US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul><li>New US tariffs ignored any notion of reciprocity, reaching shockingly substantial sizes. However, the UK was relatively fortunate in landing on the 10% minimum rate.</li><li>Repeating 2024’s imports would raise $577bn in tariff revenue, which is worth ~3% of consumption. 70% pass-through to prices would add 2% to the level over 1-2 years.</li><li>Negotiations need to conclude rapidly to avoid these front-loaded price rises. The EU’s likely retaliations would magnify its pain, but the US is the biggest stagflationary loser.</li></ul>

New US tariffs ignored any notion of reciprocity, reaching shockingly substantial sizes. However, the UK was relatively fortunate in landing on the 10% minimum rate.Repeating 2024’s imports would raise $577bn in tariff revenue, which is worth ~3% of consumption. 70% pass-through to prices would add 2% to the level over 1-2 years.Negotiations need to conclude rapidly to avoid these front-loaded price rises. The EU’s likely retaliations would magnify its pain, but the US is the biggest stagflationary loser.

Macro
Macro Insights

Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (7 - 13 April)

RBI expected to cut rates in India, CPI data and option expiries in focus for several economies next week. Exchange holiday in India.

Gaudenz Schneider

The U.S. Bear Market: SELL THE RALLY!

On March 6th we published, "The US Bear Market: Stage One - DENIAL". We then advised to sell any rally on 3/24. We targeted the first support...

David Mudd

Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 1: Hong Kong Strategy

Investors in US markets face a sudden realization, with Hong Kong Tech most vulnerable as profit-taking occurs. Our alternative sector selection...

Rikki Malik

US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown

Policy uncertainty caused inflation spikes, but M2 growth tame at 4.4%YoY. Reciprocal tariffs to increase inflation 0.4pp, but mutual tariff...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Tariff Impact Estimates

New US tariffs ignored any notion of reciprocity, reaching shockingly substantial sizes. However, the UK was relatively fortunate in landing on...

Phil Rush

Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (7 - 13 April)

​RBI expected to cut rates in India, CPI data and option expiries in focus for several economies next week. Exchange holiday in India.

Gaudenz Schneider

The U.S. Bear Market: SELL THE RALLY!

On March 6th we published, "The US Bear Market: Stage One - DENIAL". We then advised to sell any rally on 3/24. We targeted the first support...

David Mudd

Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 1: Hong Kong Strategy

​Investors in US markets face a sudden realization, with Hong Kong Tech most vulnerable as profit-taking occurs. Our alternative sector selection...

Rikki Malik

US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown

​Policy uncertainty caused inflation spikes, but M2 growth tame at 4.4%YoY. Reciprocal tariffs to increase inflation 0.4pp, but mutual tariff...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Tariff Impact Estimates

New US tariffs ignored any notion of reciprocity, reaching shockingly substantial sizes. However, the UK was relatively fortunate in landing on...

Phil Rush

RBI expected to cut rates in India, CPI data and option expiries in focus for several economies next week. Exchange holiday in India.

Investors in US markets face a sudden realization, with Hong Kong Tech most vulnerable as profit-taking occurs. Our alternative sector selection...

Policy uncertainty caused inflation spikes, but M2 growth tame at 4.4%YoY. Reciprocal tariffs to increase inflation 0.4pp, but mutual tariff...