Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>Main Takeaways: The energy bet is starting to look compelling. Oil positioning is fairly bearish, and it seems hedge funds are starting to play the oil trade from the short side after months of avoiding energy altogether.</li><li>The risk asset trade is still on, but positioning is stretched. The Santa rally suggests higher equity prices, but year-end position squaring could disrupt the long equities play.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.Main Takeaways: The energy bet is starting to look compelling. Oil positioning is fairly bearish, and it seems hedge funds are starting to play the oil trade from the short side after months of avoiding energy altogether.The risk asset trade is still on, but positioning is stretched. The Santa rally suggests higher equity prices, but year-end position squaring could disrupt the long equities play.

Positioning Watch – The Herd Behavior Strikes Back!

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul><li>Upwards revisions to Euro area labour costs and a jump in negotiated wage settlements extend cost growth inconsistent with a sustainable return to the 2% inflation target.</li><li>The ECB hopes this will subside swiftly in 2025, with productivity growth and squeezed profit margins helping contain inflation. But these hopes seem set to be disappointed.</li><li>Persistent wage pressures should prevent a 50bp rate cut in December and limit further cuts. Less dovish fundamentals feed bullish Euro seasonality, magnified by positioning.</li></ul>

Upwards revisions to Euro area labour costs and a jump in negotiated wage settlements extend cost growth inconsistent with a sustainable return to the 2% inflation target.The ECB hopes this will subside swiftly in 2025, with productivity growth and squeezed profit margins helping contain inflation. But these hopes seem set to be disappointed.Persistent wage pressures should prevent a 50bp rate cut in December and limit further cuts. Less dovish fundamentals feed bullish Euro seasonality, magnified by positioning.

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Indian market saw record foreign selling during October and that selling has continued this month.</li>
<li>Valuations are not only stretched, they are at historically high levels with mediocre earnings growth projected for next year.</li>
<li>Market breadth is narrowing and the market has declining momentum.  Near-term moving averages will act as resistance levels.</li>
</ul>


The Indian market saw record foreign selling during October and that selling has continued this month.
Valuations are not only stretched, they are at historically high levels with mediocre earnings growth projected for next year.
Market breadth is narrowing and the market has declining momentum.  Near-term moving averages will act as resistance levels.


Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>A key medium-term driver of share price is earnings estimate trajectory - in particular, "earnings inflections" - i.e. the trajectory of earnings estimates changing directions. </li>
<li>Different Asian markets have had different estimate trajectories. But most suffered estimate cuts since August/September 2024, coinciding with the US Dollar appreciation and the spike in US yields.</li>
<li>We argue that investors need to watch out for Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia and India for earnings estimate increases. India's could decline in the near term and commence an uptrend later. </li>
</ul>


A key medium-term driver of share price is earnings estimate trajectory - in particular, "earnings inflections" - i.e. the trajectory of earnings estimates changing directions. 
Different Asian markets have had different estimate trajectories. But most suffered estimate cuts since August/September 2024, coinciding with the US Dollar appreciation and the spike in US yields.
We argue that investors need to watch out for Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia and India for earnings estimate increases. India's could decline in the near term and commence an uptrend later. 


Asian Equities: In Search of Earnings Estimate Uptrends

<ul><li>Looking at the current polls, there’s no clear path to a functioning coalition in Germany.</li><li>The three potential options are: CDU/CSU pairing with SPD – a move toward stability but lacking excitement; CDU teaming up with the Greens – a less likely scenario given weak polling and major ideological clashes; and finally, the Merz dream coalition of CDU/CSU and FDP, which remains far from reaching the crucial 50% mark.</li><li>With all three options falling short, creativity (or desperation) might be the only way forward.</li></ul>

Looking at the current polls, there’s no clear path to a functioning coalition in Germany.The three potential options are: CDU/CSU pairing with SPD – a move toward stability but lacking excitement; CDU teaming up with the Greens – a less likely scenario given weak polling and major ideological clashes; and finally, the Merz dream coalition of CDU/CSU and FDP, which remains far from reaching the crucial 50% mark.With all three options falling short, creativity (or desperation) might be the only way forward.

Germany Watch: Navigating Political and Trade Uncertainty

Macro
Macro Insights

Positioning Watch – The Herd Behavior Strikes Back!

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. Main Takeaways:The energy bet is starting to look compelling. Oil positioning is...

Steno Research

EA Wages Are Too Inflationary For 50bp

Upwards revisions to Euro area labour costs and a jump in negotiated wage settlements extend cost growth inconsistent with a sustainable return to...

Phil Rush

Time to Fade India: BUT DON'T LOOK DOWN!

Gautam Adani and 7 executives from the Adani Group were indicted in the US on charges of securities fraud, wire fraud, and violating the Foreign...

David Mudd

Asian Equities: In Search of Earnings Estimate Uptrends

Earnings estimate trajectory, especially "earnings inflection," are key drivers of share price in Asian markets. We see potential uptrends in...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Germany Watch: Navigating Political and Trade Uncertainty

Looking at the current polls, there’s no clear path to a functioning coalition in Germany. The three potential options...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Herd Behavior Strikes Back!

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. Main Takeaways:The energy bet is starting to look compelling. Oil positioning is...

Steno Research

EA Wages Are Too Inflationary For 50bp

Upwards revisions to Euro area labour costs and a jump in negotiated wage settlements extend cost growth inconsistent with a sustainable return to...

Phil Rush

Time to Fade India: BUT DON'T LOOK DOWN!

Gautam Adani and 7 executives from the Adani Group were indicted in the US on charges of securities fraud, wire fraud, and violating the Foreign...

David Mudd

Asian Equities: In Search of Earnings Estimate Uptrends

​Earnings estimate trajectory, especially "earnings inflection," are key drivers of share price in Asian markets. We see potential uptrends in...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Germany Watch: Navigating Political and Trade Uncertainty

Looking at the current polls, there’s no clear path to a functioning coalition in Germany. The three potential options...

Steno Research

Earnings estimate trajectory, especially "earnings inflection," are key drivers of share price in Asian markets. We see potential uptrends in...