Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Euro has weakened over the past week due to markets focusing on hawkish price and wage inflation, with more emphasis on activity growth rates and PMIs than on unemployment and underlying inflationary pressures.</li><li>The Flash HICP for November may not rise as expected due to base effects such as German package holidays, which is considered a temporary blip.</li><li>Despite most data warning against a 50bp cut, the RBNZ is likely to make this cut again, positioning it as an outlier.</li></ul>

The Euro has weakened over the past week due to markets focusing on hawkish price and wage inflation, with more emphasis on activity growth rates and PMIs than on unemployment and underlying inflationary pressures.The Flash HICP for November may not rise as expected due to base effects such as German package holidays, which is considered a temporary blip.Despite most data warning against a 50bp cut, the RBNZ is likely to make this cut again, positioning it as an outlier.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ABN AMRO is a personal bank in the digital age. A bank committed to playing a serious role in society. This digital age helps us to bring banking ever closer to our clients and what they need. Our areas of focus are inclusion, sustainability, social entrepreneurship, innovation, daily banking and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The return of president Trump to the White House is likely to mean a significant rise in US import tariffs in 2025</li><li>China will bear the brunt, but Europe will also be hit</li><li>Global trade and growth will initially benefit from a frontloading ahead of the tariff rises, before slowing sharply later in 2025</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The return of president Trump to the White House is likely to mean a significant rise in US import tariffs in 2025China will bear the brunt, but Europe will also be hitGlobal trade and growth will initially benefit from a frontloading ahead of the tariff rises, before slowing sharply later in 2025Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>As domestically focused sectors underperformed, we cut our FY24/25 EPS growth est. to 2.4%/9.3% and JCI FY24-end target to 7,448.</li><li>Despite still muted growth indicators, we expect seasonal tailwinds to benefit certain sectors (e.g., Retail, Consumer) in 4Q24. </li><li>At a forward P/E of 11.9x, JCI valuation is attractive (160bps spread vs. 10-yr yield); amid macro risks, we favor quality stocks and USD hedge.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

As domestically focused sectors underperformed, we cut our FY24/25 EPS growth est. to 2.4%/9.3% and JCI FY24-end target to 7,448.Despite still muted growth indicators, we expect seasonal tailwinds to benefit certain sectors (e.g., Retail, Consumer) in 4Q24. At a forward P/E of 11.9x, JCI valuation is attractive (160bps spread vs. 10-yr yield); amid macro risks, we favor quality stocks and USD hedge.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: Attractive Valuation Emerging, Prefer Quality Stocks and USD Hedge...

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>Main Takeaways: The energy bet is starting to look compelling. Oil positioning is fairly bearish, and it seems hedge funds are starting to play the oil trade from the short side after months of avoiding energy altogether.</li><li>The risk asset trade is still on, but positioning is stretched. The Santa rally suggests higher equity prices, but year-end position squaring could disrupt the long equities play.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.Main Takeaways: The energy bet is starting to look compelling. Oil positioning is fairly bearish, and it seems hedge funds are starting to play the oil trade from the short side after months of avoiding energy altogether.The risk asset trade is still on, but positioning is stretched. The Santa rally suggests higher equity prices, but year-end position squaring could disrupt the long equities play.

Positioning Watch – The Herd Behavior Strikes Back!

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Nov 2024 is expected to clocked in at 4.5-5.0% YoY (+0.4% MoM), taking 5MFY25 average to 7.91% compared to 28.62% in 5MFY24.</li><li>During Nov 2024, Food Inflation is expected to increase by 0.2% MoM mainly on the back of rise in Eggs price, Pulse Moong, Tomatoes, and potatoes prices in the range of 5-35%.</li><li>Housing, water, electricity and gas segment is expected to witness approx. 0.11% MoM growth due to increase in LPG prices by 7% MoM, while electricity prices are expected to decline on the back of negative fuel cost adjustment.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Nov 2024 is expected to clocked in at 4.5-5.0% YoY (+0.4% MoM), taking 5MFY25 average to 7.91% compared to 28.62% in 5MFY24.During Nov 2024, Food Inflation is expected to increase by 0.2% MoM mainly on the back of rise in Eggs price, Pulse Moong, Tomatoes, and potatoes prices in the range of 5-35%.Housing, water, electricity and gas segment is expected to witness approx. 0.11% MoM growth due to increase in LPG prices by 7% MoM, while electricity prices are expected to decline on the back of negative fuel cost adjustment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Economy: Nov 2024 CPI Expected Between 4.5-5.0% YoY

Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics Insights

HEW: Misaligned Data Focus For FX

The Euro has weakened over the past week due to markets focusing on hawkish price and wage inflation, with more emphasis on activity growth rates...

Phil Rush

Key views Global Outlook 2025

The return of president Trump to the White House is likely to mean a significant rise in US import tariffs in 2025 China will bear the brunt, but...

ABN AMRO

Equity Strategy: Attractive Valuation Emerging, Prefer Quality Stocks and USD Hedge...

At a forward P/E of 11.9x, JCI valuation is attractive (160bps spread vs. 10-yr yield); amid macro risks, we favor quality stocks and USD hedge.

BRI Danareksa Research

Positioning Watch – The Herd Behavior Strikes Back!

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. Main Takeaways:The energy bet is starting to look compelling. Oil positioning is...

Steno Research

Pakistan Economy: Nov 2024 CPI Expected Between 4.5-5.0% YoY

Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Nov 2024 is expected to clocked in at 4.5-5.0% YoY (+0.4% MoM), taking 5MFY25 average to 7.91% compared...

Topline Securities