Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

<ul>
<li>Miserable economic data, minimal other data. It was a VERY quiet week in terms of gross volumes as per the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hk-connect-southbound-flows-to-16-aug-2024-big-net-buying-on-tiny-overall-volume-etfs-big" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainland-connect-northbound-flows-to-16-aug-2024-banks-bought-industry-materials-sold" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NORTHBOUND</a> monitors.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND net buyer for 28th week in a row. ETFs and Tencent strong (14 of 15 days net bought). NORTHBOUND outflows small. Record foreign capital flight extends.</li>
<li>As expected (with AH 20d Premia returns at multi-year highs 2wks ago), AH Premia fell slightly, narrow premia falling more than wide premia. I continue to expect more H-vs-A gains.</li>
</ul>


Miserable economic data, minimal other data. It was a VERY quiet week in terms of gross volumes as per the SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND monitors.
SOUTHBOUND net buyer for 28th week in a row. ETFs and Tencent strong (14 of 15 days net bought). NORTHBOUND outflows small. Record foreign capital flight extends.
As expected (with AH 20d Premia returns at multi-year highs 2wks ago), AH Premia fell slightly, narrow premia falling more than wide premia. I continue to expect more H-vs-A gains.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 Aug 2024): SB/NB Volumes WAAAAAY Down; AH Premia Down Small

Guangzhou Automobile Group / Event-Driven

Guangzhou Automobile Group Company, Ltd. manufactures, sells, and services automobiles. The Company is also involved in automobile parts and components, and auto finance and related services for both overseas and domestic markets.

<ul>
<li>Delayed this week because of the long (Japanese holiday, which I took for myself) weekend, as were the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hk-connect-southbound-flows-to-9-aug-2024-tencent-the-big-buy-again" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainland-connect-northbound-flows-to-9-aug-2024-back-to-net-selling-of-renewables-and-consumer" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NORTHBOUND</a> monitors. </li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND inflow strong. Tencent strong inflows. Net buying every day for two weeks. NORTHBOUND outflows large. Record foreign investor outflows from China's capital markets this year.</li>
<li>As expected (with AH 20d Premia returns at multi-year highs last week), AH Premia fell slightly, with narrow premia falling more than wide premia. I'd expect more H-vs-A gains.</li>
</ul>


Delayed this week because of the long (Japanese holiday, which I took for myself) weekend, as were the SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND monitors. 
SOUTHBOUND inflow strong. Tencent strong inflows. Net buying every day for two weeks. NORTHBOUND outflows large. Record foreign investor outflows from China's capital markets this year.
As expected (with AH 20d Premia returns at multi-year highs last week), AH Premia fell slightly, with narrow premia falling more than wide premia. I'd expect more H-vs-A gains.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 Aug 2024): Global Market Vol. SB Bought. NB Sold. Premia Down.

China Longyuan Power Group Corp Ltd designs, develops, manages, and operates wind farms.  The Company also sells the electricity generated by the wind farms.

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND inflow strong. SOEs, Tencent, and Xiaomi leading. NORTHBOUND down four of five days this week, but net inflows on the week. Consumer discretionary bad.</li>
<li>Hs underperformed As again. 20d AH Premia performance is at the top of its multi-year range. I'd expect AH Premia to decline the next couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND inflow strong. SOEs, Tencent, and Xiaomi leading. NORTHBOUND down four of five days this week, but net inflows on the week. Consumer discretionary bad.
Hs underperformed As again. 20d AH Premia performance is at the top of its multi-year range. I'd expect AH Premia to decline the next couple of weeks.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 Aug 2024): Policy Commentary Supports Consumers, AH Premia Drifting Wider

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. operates gold mining and production businesses. The Company provides gold exploration, processing, and outsourcing gold smelting services. Shandong Gold Mining also conducts gold jewelry purification and non-ferrous metal production businesses.

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND inflow strong but SOEs not leading. Hang Seng down again, A-shares down more. Bank buying minimal. </li>
<li>AH Premia fell 30bp on average. 1% for Liquid names. HK vs A-shares saw an even wider spread (the opposite of last week). SUPER-tight AH premia saw best H outperformance.</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND inflow strong but SOEs not leading. Hang Seng down again, A-shares down more. Bank buying minimal. 
AH Premia fell 30bp on average. 1% for Liquid names. HK vs A-shares saw an even wider spread (the opposite of last week). SUPER-tight AH premia saw best H outperformance.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Jul 2024): SB Bought, NB Sold, HK/China Markets Weak, Spreads Volatile

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Event-Driven

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND inflow strong but SOEs not leading and Hang Seng down hard. Bank buying minimal. NORTHBOUND saw significant selling, but A-share indices generally strong on the week. Window-dressing?</li>
<li>AH Premia rose 3.3% on average. Really bad week for H vs A as Liquid Hs underperformed their As by 4%. Stunning week really. Relative performance a sea of red.</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND inflow strong but SOEs not leading and Hang Seng down hard. Bank buying minimal. NORTHBOUND saw significant selling, but A-share indices generally strong on the week. Window-dressing?
AH Premia rose 3.3% on average. Really bad week for H vs A as Liquid Hs underperformed their As by 4%. Stunning week really. Relative performance a sea of red.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 19 Jul 2024): SB Bought, NB Sold, HK Crushed Vs A-Shares

H/A Share Monitor Insights
Track A/H Premium Positioning

A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 Aug 2024): SB/NB Volumes WAAAAAY Down; AH Premia Down Small

SB and NB flows were minimal. But SB continued to buy, NB continued to sell. AH Premia narrowed by about 50bp. Narrow premia narrowing more than...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 Aug 2024): Global Market Vol. SB Bought. NB Sold. Premia Down.

AH Premia 20d returns were at a multi-year high as of 2 August, suggesting they were likely to fall (it's an oscillator), and they did this week....

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 Aug 2024): Policy Commentary Supports Consumers, AH Premia Drifting Wider

SOUTHBOUND was a buy. NORTHBOUND was a sell for 4 of 5 days. Hs underperformed their As. Stretching the near-term AH Premium performance limits....

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Jul 2024): SB Bought, NB Sold, HK/China Markets Weak, Spreads Volatile

Spreads were volatile this past week. The narrowest AH Premia saw significant H outperformance while the wider spreads saw much more muted...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 19 Jul 2024): SB Bought, NB Sold, HK Crushed Vs A-Shares

As HK stocks got crushed during the week and A-shares did well, and SOUTHBOUND did not seem to buy the banks or SOEs, AH Premia jumped. The carry...

Travis Lundy