Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Korea Zinc Co., Ltd. specializes in non-ferrous metal smelting industry.  The Company manufactures zinc ingots, electrolytic gold, silver, lead, sulfuric acid, and copper.  Korea Zinc provides its products to domestic and overseas markets.

<ul>
<li>For the month of September 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$23bn. </li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~43%. The average premium YTD is ~44%</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of September 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$23bn. 
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~43%. The average premium YTD is ~44%
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2024: GTJA/Haitong Sec, Korea Zinc/YPP, Hotel Property, Virgin Money, Raysum

Travis Lundy

China Galaxy Securities (H) / Event-Driven

China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities services. The Company provides securities underwriting, securities brokerage, securities investment advisory, securities transaction, and other services. China Galaxy Securities provides its services throughout China.

<ul>
<li>Everything changed this past week. China has launched major public stimulus programs which seem open-ended. They are less about money and more about greasing the wheels of risk.</li>
<li>It still requires that OTHER PEOPLE take risk. Shorts covered. New speculative longs made. Better financing but still the same recourse. </li>
<li>But everything is going up. And believe it or not, Hs are outperforming As. Broker and Bank Hs seem like the right place to be.</li>
</ul>


Everything changed this past week. China has launched major public stimulus programs which seem open-ended. They are less about money and more about greasing the wheels of risk.
It still requires that OTHER PEOPLE take risk. Shorts covered. New speculative longs made. Better financing but still the same recourse. 
But everything is going up. And believe it or not, Hs are outperforming As. Broker and Bank Hs seem like the right place to be.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 Sep 2024): Hs Outperforming Explosive Chinese Stimulus

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

<ul>
<li>Repeat of last week: Miserable economic data continues. Trade geopol is mixed. Territorial geopol getting more serious. But SOUTHBOUND gross volumes way up.</li>
<li>AH Premia rose slightly as HK-listed shares outperformed mainland share indices. The HK/mainland spread is consistently better than H/A performance. It's not clear why. This week no exception.</li>
<li>This week will see limited H/A action because of the long Mid-Autumn Festival. Hopes are high for non-durables purchases this month. Maybe even homes. But I am skeptical...</li>
</ul>


Repeat of last week: Miserable economic data continues. Trade geopol is mixed. Territorial geopol getting more serious. But SOUTHBOUND gross volumes way up.
AH Premia rose slightly as HK-listed shares outperformed mainland share indices. The HK/mainland spread is consistently better than H/A performance. It's not clear why. This week no exception.
This week will see limited H/A action because of the long Mid-Autumn Festival. Hopes are high for non-durables purchases this month. Maybe even homes. But I am skeptical...


A/H Premium Tracker (To 13 Sep 2024): SB Buying of H Underperformance

Guangzhou Automobile Group / Event-Driven

Guangzhou Automobile Group Company, Ltd. manufactures, sells, and services automobiles. The Company is also involved in automobile parts and components, and auto finance and related services for both overseas and domestic markets.

<ul>
<li>Repeat of last week: Miserable economic data continues. Trade geopol is mixed. Territorial geopol getting more serious. SOUTHBOUND gross volumes and net back up, but not high.</li>
<li>AH Premia rose slightly as HK-listed shares underperformed mainland share indices. Hs underperform their As consistently compared to relative index performance.</li>
<li>It is not clear what impetus there might be for better H performance.</li>
</ul>


Repeat of last week: Miserable economic data continues. Trade geopol is mixed. Territorial geopol getting more serious. SOUTHBOUND gross volumes and net back up, but not high.
AH Premia rose slightly as HK-listed shares underperformed mainland share indices. Hs underperform their As consistently compared to relative index performance.
It is not clear what impetus there might be for better H performance.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 6 Sep 2024): SB Buying of H Underperformance, AH Premia Up

Guolian Securities Co Ltd H / Event-Driven

Guolian Securities Co. Ltd. offers financial services. The Company provides securities brokerage, asset management, securities investment, margin trading, share transfer agency, and other financial services.

<ul>
<li>Miserable economic data continues. Trade geopol is mixed. Territorial geopol getting more serious. SOUTHBOUND gross volumes up, but not high. </li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND rebounded cutting its weekly net sell streak at one. ETFs again a net sell. NORTHBOUND net data is not not released on a daily/weekly basis; only quarterly.</li>
<li>As expected (with AH 20d Premia returns at multi-year highs 3wks ago), AH Premia fell slightly, narrow premia falling more than wide premia. I continue to expect more H-vs-A gains.</li>
</ul>


Miserable economic data continues. Trade geopol is mixed. Territorial geopol getting more serious. SOUTHBOUND gross volumes up, but not high. 
SOUTHBOUND rebounded cutting its weekly net sell streak at one. ETFs again a net sell. NORTHBOUND net data is not not released on a daily/weekly basis; only quarterly.
As expected (with AH 20d Premia returns at multi-year highs 3wks ago), AH Premia fell slightly, narrow premia falling more than wide premia. I continue to expect more H-vs-A gains.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 30 Aug 2024): SB/NB Volumes Down, NB Net Now Impossible to Track