Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China International Capital Corporation / Event-Driven

China International Capital Corporation Ltd. (CICC) operates as an international investment bank. The Company provides financial services, including investment banking, capital markets, securities sales and trading, fixed income, asset management, and private equity. China International Capital also offers individual wealth management and research services.

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

<ul>
<li>Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. SOUTHBOUND volumes bounced, and net buying was both large and broad-based.</li>
<li>Stocks in HK and mainland markets fell heavily with HK's main indices down 6-7% and China's blue chip indices down 3.3-3.6% (CSI 500 - 4.8%). </li>
<li>Within H/A Pairs, after outperforming the HK/mainland spread for weeks, spreads got shellacked. Worst week in a long time (-3.7%), perhaps on the back of "disappointing" lack of stimulus measures.</li>
</ul>


Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. SOUTHBOUND volumes bounced, and net buying was both large and broad-based.
Stocks in HK and mainland markets fell heavily with HK's main indices down 6-7% and China's blue chip indices down 3.3-3.6% (CSI 500 - 4.8%). 
Within H/A Pairs, after outperforming the HK/mainland spread for weeks, spreads got shellacked. Worst week in a long time (-3.7%), perhaps on the back of "disappointing" lack of stimulus measures.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Nov 2024): AH Premia Rise Sharply; Hs Shellacked Vs As In Most Sectors

China Life Insurance Company Ltd. offers a wide range of life, accident, and health insurance products and services.

<ul>
<li>Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. SOUTHBOUND volumes bounced, and net buying was both large and broad-based.</li>
<li>It was an odd week. Strangely, HK stocks sharply underperformed mainland indices but AH premia fell on average, more so for liquid names, but wider spreads narrowed, narrow spreads widened.</li>
<li>This week's confabs did NOT deliver stimulus plans, but with Donald Trump's election, I expect any major fiscal plans get pushed back to next spring to adapt on the fly.</li>
</ul>


Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. SOUTHBOUND volumes bounced, and net buying was both large and broad-based.
It was an odd week. Strangely, HK stocks sharply underperformed mainland indices but AH premia fell on average, more so for liquid names, but wider spreads narrowed, narrow spreads widened.
This week's confabs did NOT deliver stimulus plans, but with Donald Trump's election, I expect any major fiscal plans get pushed back to next spring to adapt on the fly.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Nov 2024): AH Premia Lower Despite A-Share Outperformance

Datang International Power Generation Company Limited develops and operates power plants, sells electricity, repairs and maintains power equipment, and provides power-related technical services.

<ul>
<li>Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. SOUTHBOUND volumes are dropping fast (down 28%wow, down 60-65% vs peak a few weeks ago).</li>
<li>AH premia expanded on average. Liquid H/A pairs saw the H underperform the A in the pair by 1.52% last week. </li>
<li>Continuing differences in opinion between onshore and offshore opinion regarding the vibe of Chinese stimulus will continue to lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend and jump in.</li>
</ul>


Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. SOUTHBOUND volumes are dropping fast (down 28%wow, down 60-65% vs peak a few weeks ago).
AH premia expanded on average. Liquid H/A pairs saw the H underperform the A in the pair by 1.52% last week. 
Continuing differences in opinion between onshore and offshore opinion regarding the vibe of Chinese stimulus will continue to lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend and jump in.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Nov 2024): AH Premia Higher as A-Share Tech Underperforms

Guangzhou Automobile Group / Event-Driven

Guangzhou Automobile Group Company, Ltd. manufactures, sells, and services automobiles. The Company is also involved in automobile parts and components, and auto finance and related services for both overseas and domestic markets.

<ul>
<li>Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. AH Premia have not moved much this week (or last).</li>
<li>Average AH pairwise volatility has started to drop sharply. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Still room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.</li>
<li>Continuing differences in opinion between onshore and offshore opinion regarding the vibe of Chinese stimulus will continue to lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend and jump in.</li>
</ul>


Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. AH Premia have not moved much this week (or last).
Average AH pairwise volatility has started to drop sharply. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Still room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.
Continuing differences in opinion between onshore and offshore opinion regarding the vibe of Chinese stimulus will continue to lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend and jump in.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 25 Oct 2024): AH Premia Curve Shift, Wide Premia Brokers Bounce

China Oilfield Services Limited provides oilfield services. The Company provides geophysical prospecting, drilling, oilfield technology development, and other services. China Oilfield Services also operates transportation businesses.

<ul>
<li>Huge volumes traded on the mainland, Southbound volumes dropped, AH Premia contracted a little bit, but not much. Things are starting to stabilise.</li>
<li>Average AH pairwise volatility is super high. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Lots of room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.</li>
<li>Continuing different onshore and offshore opinion regarding the nature and vibe of Chinese stimulus will continue to lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend, then market make around it.</li>
</ul>


Huge volumes traded on the mainland, Southbound volumes dropped, AH Premia contracted a little bit, but not much. Things are starting to stabilise.
Average AH pairwise volatility is super high. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Lots of room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.
Continuing different onshore and offshore opinion regarding the nature and vibe of Chinese stimulus will continue to lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend, then market make around it.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 Oct 2024): AH Premia Drop Sharply; High Premia May Contract More