HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a> announced details of its merger, and as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongxing-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25320:1" rel="noopener">Dongxing Securities (601198 CH)</a> is valued higher, FY26F EPS dilution will be 8.5% on a weighted average basis.</li>
<li>Its post-merger FY26 and FY27 PERs are higher than the sector average, but given its rise to the 3rd largest H-share securities company, the premium can be justified.</li>
<li>Larger H-share securities companies have edged up since 19-Nov, which bodes well for CICC. We envisage a muted share price reaction, but long-term investors can build a position.  </li>
</ul>



CICC (3908 HK) announced details of its merger, and as Dongxing Securities (601198 CH) is valued higher, FY26F EPS dilution will be 8.5% on a weighted average basis.
Its post-merger FY26 and FY27 PERs are higher than the sector average, but given its rise to the 3rd largest H-share securities company, the premium can be justified.
Larger H-share securities companies have edged up since 19-Nov, which bodes well for CICC. We envisage a muted share price reaction, but long-term investors can build a position.  


<ul>
<li>China's securities industry is under a wave of consolidation. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a> is interesting given its leadership in the investment banking business.</li>
<li>A combination with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-galaxy-securities-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:165:1" rel="noopener">China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK)</a> may bring synergy, given their different focuses. This will create the 3rd largest securities house in China. </li>
<li>Even without a merger, CICC also looks attractive with the US interest rate trending down. It is best set to gain upon the revival of the Hong Kong IPO market. </li>
</ul>


China's securities industry is under a wave of consolidation. China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK) is interesting given its leadership in the investment banking business.
A combination with China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK) may bring synergy, given their different focuses. This will create the 3rd largest securities house in China. 
Even without a merger, CICC also looks attractive with the US interest rate trending down. It is best set to gain upon the revival of the Hong Kong IPO market. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a>'s announced merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongxing-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25320:1" rel="noopener">Dongxing Securities (601198 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cinda-securities-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45389:1" rel="noopener">Cinda Securities (601059 CH)</a> will elevate it to the 3rd largest HK-listed Chinese securities company.</li>
<li>Based on our assumptions, its EPS will be diluted by 7.1%, BPS enhanced by 12.2%, and ROE lowered by 1pp for FY26, before accounting for synergy.</li>
<li>Its presence in Fujian (+616.7%), Liaoning (+500%), and Beijing (+100%) will be significantly enlarged. Additionally, it will open up potential benefits from optimisation.</li>
</ul>



CICC (3908 HK)'s announced merger with Dongxing Securities (601198 CH) and Cinda Securities (601059 CH) will elevate it to the 3rd largest HK-listed Chinese securities company.
Based on our assumptions, its EPS will be diluted by 7.1%, BPS enhanced by 12.2%, and ROE lowered by 1pp for FY26, before accounting for synergy.
Its presence in Fujian (+616.7%), Liaoning (+500%), and Beijing (+100%) will be significantly enlarged. Additionally, it will open up potential benefits from optimisation.


CICC (3908 HK): Initial Assessment of the Merger

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 160 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 65.7% as of Dec 19th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 2.0ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, information technology, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for BankComm, Anjoy Foods, Cosco Shipping Development, Shanghai Electric.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 160 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 65.7% as of Dec 19th.
The average A-H premium changed by 2.0ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, information technology, utilities.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for BankComm, Anjoy Foods, Cosco Shipping Development, Shanghai Electric.


A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 19th): BankComm, Anjoy Foods, Cosco Shipping Development, Shanghai Electric

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a>'s 1H25 positive profit alert is encouraging, with 1H25 results growing by 55-78% YoY.  </li>
<li>YTD, CICC has a 59.5% share of the HK IPO market. The solid H-share IPO pipeline of A-share companies is beneficial, as this is its major area of strength.</li>
<li>Market consensus has underestimated its FY25 earnings, inflating its PER multiples. The current 51% discount of its H-share to A-share is just too steep (average 37.7%).</li>
</ul>



China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)'s 1H25 positive profit alert is encouraging, with 1H25 results growing by 55-78% YoY.  
YTD, CICC has a 59.5% share of the HK IPO market. The solid H-share IPO pipeline of A-share companies is beneficial, as this is its major area of strength.
Market consensus has underestimated its FY25 earnings, inflating its PER multiples. The current 51% discount of its H-share to A-share is just too steep (average 37.7%).


CICC (3908 HK): It Is the Best of the Time

China

China International Capital Corporation Ltd. (CICC) operates as an international investment bank. The Company provides financial services, including investment banking, capital markets, securities sales and trading, fixed income, asset management, and private equity. China International Capital also offers individual wealth management and research services.

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

CICC (3908 HK): Merger Details Are Out

CICC released merger details, facing 8.5% EPS dilution, but justified by the rise to the 3rd largest securities company. Share price reaction may...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CICC (3908 HK): M&A Possibility

CICC announced that it has entered into agreements to merge with Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities, instead of the widely rumoured China...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CICC (3908 HK): Initial Assessment of the Merger

CICC's merger with Dongxing and Cinda will make it the 3rd largest Chinese securities company, with diluted EPS, enhanced BPS, and lowered ROE for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 19th): BankComm, Anjoy Foods, Cosco Shipping Development, Shanghai Electric

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for BankComm, Anjoy Foods, Cosco Shipping Development, Shanghai...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CICC (3908 HK): It Is the Best of the Time

CICC is alerting a strong 1H25 profit growth, leading in the HK IPO market with a promising H-share IPO pipeline of A-share companies. The market...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CICC (3908 HK): Merger Details Are Out

​CICC released merger details, facing 8.5% EPS dilution, but justified by the rise to the 3rd largest securities company. Share price reaction may...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CICC (3908 HK): M&A Possibility

CICC announced that it has entered into agreements to merge with Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities, instead of the widely rumoured China...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CICC (3908 HK): Initial Assessment of the Merger

​CICC's merger with Dongxing and Cinda will make it the 3rd largest Chinese securities company, with diluted EPS, enhanced BPS, and lowered ROE for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 19th): BankComm, Anjoy Foods, Cosco Shipping Development, Shanghai Electric

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for BankComm, Anjoy Foods, Cosco Shipping Development, Shanghai...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CICC (3908 HK): It Is the Best of the Time

​CICC is alerting a strong 1H25 profit growth, leading in the HK IPO market with a promising H-share IPO pipeline of A-share companies. The market...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CICC released merger details, facing 8.5% EPS dilution, but justified by the rise to the 3rd largest securities company. Share price reaction may...

CICC's merger with Dongxing and Cinda will make it the 3rd largest Chinese securities company, with diluted EPS, enhanced BPS, and lowered ROE for...

CICC is alerting a strong 1H25 profit growth, leading in the HK IPO market with a promising H-share IPO pipeline of A-share companies. The market...