Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Oriental Land: Consensus Is Not in Touch with Reality

Nikkei 225 Review Results: Nidec, SMC, Hoya IN

Oriental Land: Price Reaction Unwarranted and There’s Significant Downside Risk in a Bear Market

Oriental Land: Too Expensive to Benefit From Japan’s COVID-19 Vaccination Drive

Oriental Land: A Less Than Impressive Reopening Could Trigger a Much-Needed Correction

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> fell more than 10% today after a strong earnings beat in 4QFY22, which saw revenue and OP beat consensus by ¥7.0bn and ¥8.6bn respectively.</li>
<li>The medium-term outlook is very disappointing with the company expecting no pricing growth and low park attendance.</li>
<li>After moving up nonsensically during COVID due to extremely inflated medium-term consensus, we think Oriental Land’s share price could start falling apart after this medium-term plan announcement.</li>
</ul>



Oriental Land (4661 JP) fell more than 10% today after a strong earnings beat in 4QFY22, which saw revenue and OP beat consensus by ¥7.0bn and ¥8.6bn respectively.
The medium-term outlook is very disappointing with the company expecting no pricing growth and low park attendance.
After moving up nonsensically during COVID due to extremely inflated medium-term consensus, we think Oriental Land’s share price could start falling apart after this medium-term plan announcement.


Oriental Land’s New Medium-Term Plan: A Reality Check for Consensus