Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Nikkei 225 Review Results: Nidec, SMC, Hoya IN

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard

Oriental Land: Price Reaction Unwarranted and There’s Significant Downside Risk in a Bear Market

Oriental Land’s New Medium-Term Plan: A Reality Check for Consensus

Oriental Land: A Less Than Impressive Reopening Could Trigger a Much-Needed Correction

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With Q1 park attendance falling short of expectations, it seems unlikely that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> will beat FY23 guidance as expected by consensus.</li>
<li>The consensus medium outlook is also questionable as the management seems less keen on opening Fantasy Springs as soon as possible.</li>
<li>At over 29.2x EV/consensus FY27 OP (56.5x at LSR-FY27-OP), on exaggerated medium-term growth targets, Oriental Land probably has more downside than some of the expensive tech names on the market.</li>
</ul>


With Q1 park attendance falling short of expectations, it seems unlikely that Oriental Land (4661 JP) will beat FY23 guidance as expected by consensus.
The consensus medium outlook is also questionable as the management seems less keen on opening Fantasy Springs as soon as possible.
At over 29.2x EV/consensus FY27 OP (56.5x at LSR-FY27-OP), on exaggerated medium-term growth targets, Oriental Land probably has more downside than some of the expensive tech names on the market.


Oriental Land: Consensus Is Not in Touch with Reality