Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Oriental Land’s New Medium-Term Plan: A Reality Check for Consensus

Oriental Land: Consensus Is Not in Touch with Reality

Oriental Land: Too Expensive to Benefit From Japan’s COVID-19 Vaccination Drive

Oriental Land: A Less Than Impressive Reopening Could Trigger a Much-Needed Correction

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> positively surprised the market with 3QFY22 revenue surpassing the consensus estimate by more than 13% through gradual easing of limits imposed on park attendance.</li>
<li>FY22 revenue and OP guidance were raised by ¥22.9bn and ¥16.6bn respectively despite expecting Q4 attendance to fall short of the original forecast through the new state of emergency measures.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, we think Oriental Land is too expensive at 33.6x FY24 OP, especially considering that attendance is expected to fall short of the original forecasts in the fourth quarter.</li>
</ul>



Oriental Land (4661 JP) positively surprised the market with 3QFY22 revenue surpassing the consensus estimate by more than 13% through gradual easing of limits imposed on park attendance.
FY22 revenue and OP guidance were raised by ¥22.9bn and ¥16.6bn respectively despite expecting Q4 attendance to fall short of the original forecast through the new state of emergency measures.
Nonetheless, we think Oriental Land is too expensive at 33.6x FY24 OP, especially considering that attendance is expected to fall short of the original forecasts in the fourth quarter.


Oriental Land: Price Reaction Unwarranted and There’s Significant Downside Risk in a Bear Market