Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Oriental Land: A Less Than Impressive Reopening Could Trigger a Much-Needed Correction

Oriental Land: Price Reaction Unwarranted and There’s Significant Downside Risk in a Bear Market

Oriental Land’s New Medium-Term Plan: A Reality Check for Consensus

Oriental Land: Downside Risks Mount as Japan Considers Declaring a State of Emergency

Oriental Land: Over-Optimistic 4QFY21 Consensus

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> delivered 1QFY22 results late last week with revenue surpassing the consensus estimate by more than 42%. The company’s 1QFY22 operating loss was ¥8.8bn compared to the consensus operating loss estimate of ¥21.5bn.We have been highlighting the fact that Oriental Land’s consensus estimates have been out of touch with reality since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Initially, consensus was late to downgrade earnings estimates and it took them till 4QFY21 to catch up.Although, this time around they were quick to react as consensus estimates were lowered rather quickly after reimposing restrictions on park attendance.Nevertheless, Japan’s rapid vaccination drive in preparation for Olympics would mean that attendance restrictions are likely to be very lifted soon. If Japan follows a similar trend to the US reopening story, Tokyo Disney Land, Disney Sea and Disney Hotels are likely likely to experience the guest numbers that’s never been seen before. Yet, the upside potential to Oriental Land shares are rather low as the company is currently trading at extremely expensive multiples.

Oriental Land (4661 JP) delivered 1QFY22 results late last week with revenue surpassing the consensus estimate by more than 42%. The company’s 1QFY22 operating loss was ¥8.8bn compared to the consensus operating loss estimate of ¥21.5bn.We have been highlighting the fact that Oriental Land’s consensus estimates have been out of touch with reality since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Initially, consensus was late to downgrade earnings estimates and it took them till 4QFY21 to catch up.Although, this time around they were quick to react as consensus estimates were lowered rather quickly after reimposing restrictions on park attendance.Nevertheless, Japan’s rapid vaccination drive in preparation for Olympics would mean that attendance restrictions are likely to be very lifted soon. If Japan follows a similar trend to the US reopening story, Tokyo Disney Land, Disney Sea and Disney Hotels are likely likely to experience the guest numbers that’s never been seen before. Yet, the upside potential to Oriental Land shares are rather low as the company is currently trading at extremely expensive multiples. 

Oriental Land: Too Expensive to Benefit From Japan’s COVID-19 Vaccination Drive