Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Oriental Land: Over-Optimistic 4QFY21 Consensus

Oriental Land: Too Expensive to Benefit From Japan’s COVID-19 Vaccination Drive

Oriental Land: A Correction Possible with Q2 Results

Oriental Land: Never Mind the Absurd Consensus, FY21 Guidance Also Looks Challenging

Oriental Land: Consensus Over Optimistic On FY21

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, the operator of Tokyo Disney Resorts, is one of the worse affected in Japan from the COVID-19 crisis as the company had to temporarily close down its theme parks, Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea throughout March-June 2020. Even though the company’s theme parks and hotels reopened on 1<sup>st</sup> of July 2020 (with capacity restrictions), Oriental Land’s revenue for the quarter ended September 2020 was just ¥53.0 billion, compared to ¥128.0 billion in the same period previous year. The quarterly operating loss was ¥8.5 billion compared to an Operating Profit of ¥29.0 billion in the same period of the previous year.</li>
<li>However, things were heading in the right direction since reopening of theme parks as the rate of revenue decline decelerated from 94.9% YoY in 1QFY21 to 58.6% YoY in 2QFY21. The operating loss narrowed from ¥15.6 billion in 1QFY21 to ¥8.9 billion in 2QFY21.</li>
<li>Yesterday, The Japanese government said that they are considering declaring a state of emergency in and around Tokyo area. A state of emergency could enforce another temporary park closure and have a significant impact on the likelihood of meeting Oriental Land’s FY03/21 revenue and OP targets.</li>
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Oriental Land (4661 JP), the operator of Tokyo Disney Resorts, is one of the worse affected in Japan from the COVID-19 crisis as the company had to temporarily close down its theme parks, Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea throughout March-June 2020. Even though the company’s theme parks and hotels reopened on 1st of July 2020 (with capacity restrictions), Oriental Land’s revenue for the quarter ended September 2020 was just ¥53.0 billion, compared to ¥128.0 billion in the same period previous year. The quarterly operating loss was ¥8.5 billion compared to an Operating Profit of ¥29.0 billion in the same period of the previous year.
However, things were heading in the right direction since reopening of theme parks as the rate of revenue decline decelerated from 94.9% YoY in 1QFY21 to 58.6% YoY in 2QFY21. The operating loss narrowed from ¥15.6 billion in 1QFY21 to ¥8.9 billion in 2QFY21.
Yesterday, The Japanese government said that they are considering declaring a state of emergency in and around Tokyo area. A state of emergency could enforce another temporary park closure and have a significant impact on the likelihood of meeting Oriental Land’s FY03/21 revenue and OP targets.


Oriental Land: Downside Risks Mount as Japan Considers Declaring a State of Emergency