Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>During 2QFY24, Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea both saw a QoQ decline in Google search interest.</li>
<li>This suggests to us that there might be an earnings miss when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> reports its FQ2 results on October 30, 2023.</li>
<li>Additionally, there are potential downside risks to both FY24 and medium-term consensus projections following a revised FY24 guidance announcement.</li>
</ul>


During 2QFY24, Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea both saw a QoQ decline in Google search interest.
This suggests to us that there might be an earnings miss when Oriental Land (4661 JP) reports its FQ2 results on October 30, 2023.
Additionally, there are potential downside risks to both FY24 and medium-term consensus projections following a revised FY24 guidance announcement.


Oriental Land: Google Search Signals Potential Miss; Guidance Could Challenge Consensus Optimism

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Early predictions for the March 2023 Nikkei rebalance (TBA early Feb) are little changed. One way turnover would still be about 1.4%. I see 3 ADDs and 3 DELETEs.</li>
<li>The 3 ADDs should be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1184:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airlines (9201)</a>.  The 3 DELETES <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2796:1" rel="noopener">Toho Zinc (5707)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyobo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6187:1" rel="noopener">Toyobo (3101)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-light-metal-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1485:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Light Metal (5703)</a>. </li>
<li>Oriental Land is the one to watch in March. The Sep 2023 rebalance and subsequent ones are smaller in size but more interesting in impact.</li>
</ul>


Early predictions for the March 2023 Nikkei rebalance (TBA early Feb) are little changed. One way turnover would still be about 1.4%. I see 3 ADDs and 3 DELETEs.
The 3 ADDs should be Oriental Land (4661), Renesas Electronics (6723), and Japan Airlines (9201).  The 3 DELETES Toho Zinc (5707), Toyobo (3101), and Nippon Light Metal (5703). 
Oriental Land is the one to watch in March. The Sep 2023 rebalance and subsequent ones are smaller in size but more interesting in impact.


Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)

<ul>
<li>In mid-January, the TSE announced a "name-and-shame" list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】. But they did not actually shame.</li>
<li>The list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We are weeks ahead of the TSE and we have all the links.</li>
<li>We created a tool to name <em>everyone</em>, show their reports, provide links to every document, and now a new tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.</li>
</ul>


In mid-January, the TSE announced a "name-and-shame" list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】. But they did not actually shame.
The list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We are weeks ahead of the TSE and we have all the links.
We created a tool to name everyone, show their reports, provide links to every document, and now a new tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.


Updated Tool (30Apr24) & "Diff File Generator" For TSE "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price"

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> is looking to raise up to US$553m from selling a 1% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Palliser Capital, has been pushing Keisei Electric Railway to reduce its stake in OLC to unlock shareholder value owing to the wide discrepancy between carrying/market value of the former’s investment.</li>
<li>Selling just 1% of shares outstanding, the deal wouldn’t be a very large one to digest, representing 4.7 days of OLC’s three month ADV. </li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) is looking to raise up to US$553m from selling a 1% stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP).
Palliser Capital, has been pushing Keisei Electric Railway to reduce its stake in OLC to unlock shareholder value owing to the wide discrepancy between carrying/market value of the former’s investment.
Selling just 1% of shares outstanding, the deal wouldn’t be a very large one to digest, representing 4.7 days of OLC’s three month ADV. 


Oriental Land Co Placement - Relatively Small One to Digest, Overhang Might Not Be as Large

<ul>
<li>Activist investor, Elliott Management has acquired over a 2% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a> and is urging it to sell its 6% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Elliott appears to have identified the path of least resistance, as Mitsui Fudosan had already indicated a willingness to sell its Oriental Land shares last year.</li>
<li>If Elliott's campaign proves successful, it will inadvertently benefit Palliser, which is currently challenging <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> with a similar proposal.</li>
</ul>


Activist investor, Elliott Management has acquired over a 2% stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and is urging it to sell its 6% stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP).
Elliott appears to have identified the path of least resistance, as Mitsui Fudosan had already indicated a willingness to sell its Oriental Land shares last year.
If Elliott's campaign proves successful, it will inadvertently benefit Palliser, which is currently challenging Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) with a similar proposal.


Oriental Land: A Storm Brewing from Activist Coalition

Japan

ORIENTAL LAND CO., LTD. operates Tokyo Disney Resort.  The Company also operates restaurants within the complex and sells Disney merchandise.

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Oriental Land (4661 JP)

Oriental Land: Google Search Signals Potential Miss; Guidance Could Challenge Consensus Optimism

Oriental Land released its Q2 report today, with both revenue and operating profit falling below consensus expectations as we had anticipated....

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)

Updated Nikkei 225 Leaderboard for the March 2023 review. 10 weeks of data left til the cutoff. The top 3 ADDs are unch'd since Sep. The 3rd-ranked...

Travis Lundy

Updated Tool (30Apr24) & "Diff File Generator" For TSE "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price"

The TSE request for "Management Conscious of Stock Price and Cost of Capital" announcements mid-month just show a list of who did. No links. No way...

Travis Lundy

Oriental Land Co Placement - Relatively Small One to Digest, Overhang Might Not Be as Large

Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) is looking to raise up to US$553m from selling a 1% stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP).

Clarence Chu

Oriental Land: A Storm Brewing from Activist Coalition

Activist investor Elliott Management urges Mitsui Fudosan to sell its stake in Oriental Land, potentially benefiting Palliser in its challenge...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Oriental Land: Google Search Signals Potential Miss; Guidance Could Challenge Consensus Optimism

Oriental Land released its Q2 report today, with both revenue and operating profit falling below consensus expectations as we had anticipated....

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)

Updated Nikkei 225 Leaderboard for the March 2023 review. 10 weeks of data left til the cutoff. The top 3 ADDs are unch'd since Sep. The 3rd-ranked...

Travis Lundy

Updated Tool (30Apr24) & "Diff File Generator" For TSE "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price"

The TSE request for "Management Conscious of Stock Price and Cost of Capital" announcements mid-month just show a list of who did. No links. No way...

Travis Lundy

Oriental Land Co Placement - Relatively Small One to Digest, Overhang Might Not Be as Large

Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) is looking to raise up to US$553m from selling a 1% stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP).

Clarence Chu

Oriental Land: A Storm Brewing from Activist Coalition

​Activist investor Elliott Management urges Mitsui Fudosan to sell its stake in Oriental Land, potentially benefiting Palliser in its challenge...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Activist investor Elliott Management urges Mitsui Fudosan to sell its stake in Oriental Land, potentially benefiting Palliser in its challenge...