Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

I have been working for +17 years as a quantitative researcher, offering my investment research insights to investors through two private companies I have founded (Retracement Levels Ltd. and QUANTRADING AG); more recently I worked as a Portfolio Manager at Capital Theory Investment Management, LLC, a CTA based in Austin, Texas (USA), where I developed and ran automated algorithmic trading strategies for the US Futures and Options markets. 

My research work is focused on the statistical study of the "persistence of trends" and "mean reversion" effects in global Equities, Futures, Indexes, Bonds and FX Spot markets. I have created an original proprietary process (called the "Market Reversal Matrix" or "MRM") that makes extensive use of probabilistic Bayesian models to predict short-term (1 day to few weeks) trend reversals.

I do not use any AI/machine learning processes in my work: all models and algorithms are built and supervised by humans. This approach is very labour-intensive but produces forecasts that have a clearly understandable/explainable rationale (no black-boxes).

Quantitative Researcher

EQD | Hang Seng Index (HSI) WEEKLY LONG: Support Levels and Probability

EQD | SPX MONTHLY Proxy Supports for APAC Markets

APAC WEEKLY Monitor: Current MRM Supports and Probabilities Re-Cap

EQD | Hang Seng Index (HSI) WEEKLY Looking for Short-Term Direction

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI)</a> last week closed strongly up. This week it's pulling back, but MRM pattern readings forecast a very short-lived pullback (-1 to -2 weeks).</li>
<li>The suggested strategy is: let the index play out its pullback (warning: it can be volatile) and then enter LONG trades when the probability is good.</li>
<li>
Suggested support price areas are between 18965 (Q2) and 18732 (Q3) - or this Friday at Close (as long as the close is negative).</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI) last week closed strongly up. This week it's pulling back, but MRM pattern readings forecast a very short-lived pullback (-1 to -2 weeks).
The suggested strategy is: let the index play out its pullback (warning: it can be volatile) and then enter LONG trades when the probability is good.

Suggested support price areas are between 18965 (Q2) and 18732 (Q3) - or this Friday at Close (as long as the close is negative).


EQD | Hang Seng Index (HSI) WEEKLY Deep-But-Brief Pullback