Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

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China: Why We Are Below Consensus on GDP Growth in 2021

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>There is considerable debate over the outlook for the Chinese economy given recent adverse news on housing market regulation and fears of policy tightening. The authorities have also ramped up antitrust probes into the practices of major tech companies such as Alibaba and Tencent, further impacting sentiment.</li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that these fears are likely overdone. We now expect full-year GDP growth to print 8.4%, up from 8.0% previously.</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>Two main factors underpin our revised forecasts: (1) a bigger expected contribution from exports and industrial production followed by (2) a less accentuated slowdown in the interest-rate sensitive sectors - more than offsetting persistent weakness in consumer spending. </li>
<li>The balance of risks to the outlook are in our view tilted to the upside, should private sector investment show signs of a turnaround by year-end.</li>
</ul>


There is considerable debate over the outlook for the Chinese economy given recent adverse news on housing market regulation and fears of policy tightening. The authorities have also ramped up antitrust probes into the practices of major tech companies such as Alibaba and Tencent, further impacting sentiment.
Our analysis suggests that these fears are likely overdone. We now expect full-year GDP growth to print 8.4%, up from 8.0% previously.

Two main factors underpin our revised forecasts: (1) a bigger expected contribution from exports and industrial production followed by (2) a less accentuated slowdown in the interest-rate sensitive sectors - more than offsetting persistent weakness in consumer spending. 
The balance of risks to the outlook are in our view tilted to the upside, should private sector investment show signs of a turnaround by year-end.


China: Brace For Upside Surprises To Growth in 2021