Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nigel Chiang

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

China: Latest Activity Data Suggest Modest Upside Risks to Our Base-Line Growth Forecasts

China: Brace For Upside Surprises To Growth in 2021

China: Why We Are Below Consensus on GDP Growth in 2021

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

Premier Li Keqiang’s Government Work Report was recently delivered at the 14th National People’s Congress. There are two major policy signals to be gleaned.<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>First, the political leadership is de-emphasizing near-term GDP growth targets in favour of quality development and increased policy flexibility but is determined to prevent stimulus “cliff” effects that could undo the economy’s recovery. We estimate a consolidated fiscal deficit of 7.4% in 2021, down from the record-high 10.4% in 2020.</li>
<li>Second, the exigencies of the pandemic and a more unforgiving external environment will also spur the political leadership and the policymakers to execute more decisively on the structural reforms outlined in the 14th Five Year Plan.</li>
</ul>Overall, the political leadership has put together a cogent plan for the medium-term, but factors outside its control and contradictions from within the Chinese system could trip it up.The long-term outlook will depend critically on a) China regaining access to the technological frontier; b) getting the right balance between dirigisme and private-sector-led growth; and c) overcoming the vested interests that prevent an increase in the wage share of income, which is needed for a smooth hand-off from fixed investment to consumer spending as the main driver of growth.

Premier Li Keqiang’s Government Work Report was recently delivered at the 14th National People’s Congress. There are two major policy signals to be gleaned.
First, the political leadership is de-emphasizing near-term GDP growth targets in favour of quality development and increased policy flexibility but is determined to prevent stimulus “cliff” effects that could undo the economy’s recovery. We estimate a consolidated fiscal deficit of 7.4% in 2021, down from the record-high 10.4% in 2020.
Second, the exigencies of the pandemic and a more unforgiving external environment will also spur the political leadership and the policymakers to execute more decisively on the structural reforms outlined in the 14th Five Year Plan.
Overall, the political leadership has put together a cogent plan for the medium-term, but factors outside its control and contradictions from within the Chinese system could trip it up.The long-term outlook will depend critically on a) China regaining access to the technological frontier; b) getting the right balance between dirigisme and private-sector-led growth; and c) overcoming the vested interests that prevent an increase in the wage share of income, which is needed for a smooth hand-off from fixed investment to consumer spending as the main driver of growth.

China 14th National People's Congress: Short-Term Growth De-Emphasised; Reforms to Take Center-Stage