Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nigel Chiang

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

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Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

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<li>Despite our view of global growth surprising positively in 2021, we see less upside for China.</li>
<li>Our bottom-up model sees Chinese real GDP growth coming in at +7.4% in 2021, meaningfully below consensus (+8.2%) and the IMF’s latest estimate (+8.1%), which in our view reflects under-appreciated headwinds to growth resulting from policy normalisation.</li>
<li>In terms of growth drivers, manufacturing investment is likely to accelerate in 2021, aided by a recovery in export growth, offsetting softer real estate and infrastructure capex. Private consumption will be strongly accretive to the outlook, as the household savings rate normalises further. Lastly, we see decent room for export growth even as gains in its share of world exports are reversed in 2021 and exports of COVID-19 related goods return to trend.</li>
</ul>


Despite our view of global growth surprising positively in 2021, we see less upside for China.
Our bottom-up model sees Chinese real GDP growth coming in at +7.4% in 2021, meaningfully below consensus (+8.2%) and the IMF’s latest estimate (+8.1%), which in our view reflects under-appreciated headwinds to growth resulting from policy normalisation.
In terms of growth drivers, manufacturing investment is likely to accelerate in 2021, aided by a recovery in export growth, offsetting softer real estate and infrastructure capex. Private consumption will be strongly accretive to the outlook, as the household savings rate normalises further. Lastly, we see decent room for export growth even as gains in its share of world exports are reversed in 2021 and exports of COVID-19 related goods return to trend.


China: Why We Are Below Consensus on GDP Growth in 2021