Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nigel Chiang

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

China: Brace For Upside Surprises To Growth in 2021

Is Trouble Brewing for Xi Jinping Under the Calm Surface of Chinese Politics?

Population/ Food Security/ Consumption/ PLAN/ Space

China 14th National People's Congress: Short-Term Growth De-Emphasised; Reforms to Take Center-Stage

China: Why We Are Below Consensus on GDP Growth in 2021

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

The latest activity data indicates a robust industrial economy alongside still-weak consumer spending. We remain comfortable with our full-year growth forecast of 7.3% in 2021 but view the balance of risks to this scenario as having modestly risen, for two main reasons.Fixed investment was relatively steady amid the incremental monetary tightening through 4Q20. There are also nascent signs that such policy tightening has peaked. This means that we could see a less severe tail-off in fixed investment in the first half of this year before a sequential recovery takes place in the back half.On the exports front, external demand could remain accretive for growth for longer given the confluence of positive tailwinds at work (strong COVID-19 related exports, tech exports’ outperformance, and the broadening of global demand) outweighing the reversal of China’s temporary gains in the world market share of tradable goods last year.  Stronger exports will in turn catalyse a recovery in private sector capital spending.

The latest activity data indicates a robust industrial economy alongside still-weak consumer spending. We remain comfortable with our full-year growth forecast of 7.3% in 2021 but view the balance of risks to this scenario as having modestly risen, for two main reasons.Fixed investment was relatively steady amid the incremental monetary tightening through 4Q20. There are also nascent signs that such policy tightening has peaked. This means that we could see a less severe tail-off in fixed investment in the first half of this year before a sequential recovery takes place in the back half.On the exports front, external demand could remain accretive for growth for longer given the confluence of positive tailwinds at work (strong COVID-19 related exports, tech exports’ outperformance, and the broadening of global demand) outweighing the reversal of China’s temporary gains in the world market share of tradable goods last year.  Stronger exports will in turn catalyse a recovery in private sector capital spending.

China: Latest Activity Data Suggest Modest Upside Risks to Our Base-Line Growth Forecasts