Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nigel Chiang

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

Population/ Commodities/ Meituan/ US-China/ EVs

Our China Views in a Nutshell: Near-Term Bullish; Longer-Term Cautious

Crypto/ Tech/ Covid-19/ US-China/ UK-China

China: Brace For Upside Surprises To Growth in 2021

China: Latest Activity Data Suggest Modest Upside Risks to Our Base-Line Growth Forecasts

China 14th National People's Congress: Short-Term Growth De-Emphasised; Reforms to Take Center-Stage

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

The Chinese economy’s continued outperformance on the export front and healthy level of property sales in the face of macroprudential tightening vindicate our view that growth will remain resilient amid manageable headwinds from policy normalisation and a slower return to form for private consumption.The latest Politburo meeting indicated that the policy stance will remain very much pro-growth, (albeit less accommodative than the emergency footing last year) which should dispel worries that credit will be tightened prematurely - fears that have weighed on the equity market's performance in the year-to-date.Taken together, the more recent data points affirm our relatively upbeat view on the economy, with GDP growth likely to come in at 8.3% this year before slowing to 2022 to 5.6%, or slightly below potential growth.To be certain, our 2021 growth forecast remains slightly below consensus expectations which have moved up to 8.5%. This reflects our more cautious outlook on manufacturing investment despite a more supportive financing environment from the PBOC's window guidance to banks and strong exports.

The Chinese economy’s continued outperformance on the export front and healthy level of property sales in the face of macroprudential tightening vindicate our view that growth will remain resilient amid manageable headwinds from policy normalisation and a slower return to form for private consumption.The latest Politburo meeting indicated that the policy stance will remain very much pro-growth, (albeit less accommodative than the emergency footing last year) which should dispel worries that credit will be tightened prematurely - fears that have weighed on the equity market's performance in the year-to-date.Taken together, the more recent data points affirm our relatively upbeat view on the economy, with GDP growth likely to come in at 8.3% this year before slowing to 2022 to 5.6%, or slightly below potential growth.To be certain, our 2021 growth forecast remains slightly below consensus expectations which have moved up to 8.5%. This reflects our more cautious outlook on manufacturing investment despite a more supportive financing environment from the PBOC's window guidance to banks and strong exports.

China: Headwinds from Policy Normalisation Will Be Manageable