Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nigel Chiang

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

Crypto/ Tech/ Covid-19/ US-China/ UK-China

China: Could Commodity Prices Disrupt the Recovery?

China: Headwinds from Policy Normalisation Will Be Manageable

China: Brace For Upside Surprises To Growth in 2021

China: Latest Activity Data Suggest Modest Upside Risks to Our Base-Line Growth Forecasts

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

We look past April's weaker-than-expected activity indicators, as well as credit aggregates that ostensibly indicate tighter liquidity in China, and continue to expect solid GDP growth in 2021 (CAA forecast: +8.2%). Weak credit demand rather than a policy-induced deceleration in credit supply is at the root of the slower credit growth, and the main risk to our forecasts - a material slowdown in housing, looks unlikely given the robust demand backdrop.Over the medium-term, we think that China’s recently released census will force quicker policy changes in areas where China’s leaders had preferred to move slowly but remain critical in securing the country's economic future. However,even as we believe the census to be a wake-up call for policy, we are not confident that enough will be done and in time, given the significant political obstacles to comprehensive reform.

We look past April's weaker-than-expected activity indicators, as well as credit aggregates that ostensibly indicate tighter liquidity in China, and continue to expect solid GDP growth in 2021 (CAA forecast: +8.2%). Weak credit demand rather than a policy-induced deceleration in credit supply is at the root of the slower credit growth, and the main risk to our forecasts - a material slowdown in housing, looks unlikely given the robust demand backdrop.Over the medium-term, we think that China’s recently released census will force quicker policy changes in areas where China’s leaders had preferred to move slowly but remain critical in securing the country's economic future. However,even as we believe the census to be a wake-up call for policy, we are not confident that enough will be done and in time, given the significant political obstacles to comprehensive reform.

Our China Views in a Nutshell: Near-Term Bullish; Longer-Term Cautious