External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is stronger overall, supported by rising US yields (10s touched 4.98% earlier) and weaker global stocks following a tumble (2%+) in Chinese equities earlier.</li><li>The EUR, CHF and the JPY are all holding very minor gains on the session, with high beta FX underperforming, however.</li><li>The JPY’s stability looks a little curious considering its sensitivity to US yields recently but broader USD (DXY) gains are looking a bit stretched relative to fair value based on short-term spreads alone, suggesting the primary driver of USD appreciation is coming from geo-political/market risk influences. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is stronger overall, supported by rising US yields (10s touched 4.98% earlier) and weaker global stocks following a tumble (2%+) in Chinese equities earlier.The EUR, CHF and the JPY are all holding very minor gains on the session, with high beta FX underperforming, however.The JPY’s stability looks a little curious considering its sensitivity to US yields recently but broader USD (DXY) gains are looking a bit stretched relative to fair value based on short-term spreads alone, suggesting the primary driver of USD appreciation is coming from geo-political/market risk influences. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Firmer on Yields, Risk Aversion

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to a little firmer in broad terms but FX movement is limited among the core currencies as investors grapple with uncertainty across a number of fronts.</li><li>The USD’s failures to advance on the back of stronger than expected data and higher yields yesterday supports the impression that choppy—but essentially flat—trading in the DXY since late September reflects “late cycle” activity as investors consider the peak of the Fed tightening cycle and the peak in the US economy.</li><li>The lid on the DXY rally in the low 107 area is looking a little more solid.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to a little firmer in broad terms but FX movement is limited among the core currencies as investors grapple with uncertainty across a number of fronts.The USD’s failures to advance on the back of stronger than expected data and higher yields yesterday supports the impression that choppy—but essentially flat—trading in the DXY since late September reflects “late cycle” activity as investors consider the peak of the Fed tightening cycle and the peak in the US economy.The lid on the DXY rally in the low 107 area is looking a little more solid.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The market appears to be pricing in a more contained crisis in regards of geopolitical risk escalation, but volatility risk remains high at this stage.</li><li>The recent surge in yields is seen as an indication of tighter financial conditions, aiding the Fed to achieve its objectives, and hence, greater expectations of a Pause.</li><li>China’s slowdown could trim Indonesia’s GDP growth by 0.2 ppt in 2024. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The market appears to be pricing in a more contained crisis in regards of geopolitical risk escalation, but volatility risk remains high at this stage.The recent surge in yields is seen as an indication of tighter financial conditions, aiding the Fed to achieve its objectives, and hence, greater expectations of a Pause.China’s slowdown could trim Indonesia’s GDP growth by 0.2 ppt in 2024. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: Ever Vigilant

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading firmer overall but the “market-weighted” DXY is trading off its earlier highs ahead of the North American session and effectively continues to consolidate within the October trading range.</li><li>Risk appetite has softened somewhat as investors focus on developments in Israel/Gaza. President Biden plans to visit Israel tomorrow.</li><li>European stocks and US equity futures are steady to lower but bonds have weakened. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading firmer overall but the “market-weighted” DXY is trading off its earlier highs ahead of the North American session and effectively continues to consolidate within the October trading range.Risk appetite has softened somewhat as investors focus on developments in Israel/Gaza. President Biden plans to visit Israel tomorrow.European stocks and US equity futures are steady to lower but bonds have weakened. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Edges Higher, CAD Slips Ahead of CPI

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback</li>
<li>Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).</li>
<li>The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback
Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).
The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.


Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

FX Daily - USD Firmer on Yields, Risk Aversion

The USD is stronger overall, supported by rising US yields (10s touched 4.98% earlier) and weaker global stocks following a tumble (2%+) in Chinese...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Mixed Amid Uncertainty

FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to a little firmer in broad terms but FX movement is limited among the core currencies as investors...

Scotiabank

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: Ever Vigilant

The market appears to be pricing in a more contained crisis in regards of geopolitical risk escalation, but volatility risk remains high at this...

BRI Danareksa Research

FX Daily - USD Edges Higher, CAD Slips Ahead of CPI

Risk appetite has softened somewhat as investors focus on developments in Israel/Gaza. President Biden plans to visit Israel tomorrow.

Scotiabank

Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Our confidence in our outlook is growing: as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, most signs point to this being a normal...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)