Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.</li>
<li>This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.</li>
<li>We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.
This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.
We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight


MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading broadly lower to start the week.</li><li>Treasury yields have nudged up a little on the session but European bond yields are up 3-4bps more on the day.</li><li>Stocks are lower in Europe but US equity futures are trading in the green. Crude oil prices remain choppy but have reversed some of Friday’s weakness. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading broadly lower to start the week.Treasury yields have nudged up a little on the session but European bond yields are up 3-4bps more on the day.Stocks are lower in Europe but US equity futures are trading in the green. Crude oil prices remain choppy but have reversed some of Friday’s weakness. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>A reduction in the Treasury issuance target in 4Q, FOMC’s rate pause, and weaker US job data are seen as the main factors behind the recent surge in asset prices, with UST yields falling to 4.57% and the DXY to 105.</li><li>Growth risk stands to dominate going forward rather than concerns on rising interest rates, and this will drive more fiscal spending, we believe.</li><li>Both INDOGB and the JCI finally saw the return of foreign inflows, with the IDR enjoying some support.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

A reduction in the Treasury issuance target in 4Q, FOMC’s rate pause, and weaker US job data are seen as the main factors behind the recent surge in asset prices, with UST yields falling to 4.57% and the DXY to 105.Growth risk stands to dominate going forward rather than concerns on rising interest rates, and this will drive more fiscal spending, we believe.Both INDOGB and the JCI finally saw the return of foreign inflows, with the IDR enjoying some support.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.</li><li>Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.</li><li>If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.</li></ul>

Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

<ul><li>FX Market Update—Markets are generally calmer ahead of this morning’s data points.</li><li>Stocks are positive in Europe, but gains are modest, while US equity futures are very narrowly mixed after disappointing AAPL results last night.</li><li>Major bond markets are mostly weaker on the day but yields are showing minimal gains. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—Markets are generally calmer ahead of this morning’s data points.Stocks are positive in Europe, but gains are modest, while US equity futures are very narrowly mixed after disappointing AAPL results last night.Major bond markets are mostly weaker on the day but yields are showing minimal gains. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

FX Daily - USD Strength Unravels

The USD is trading broadly lower to start the week. Treasury yields have nudged up a little on the session but European bond yields are up 3-4bps...

Scotiabank

Macro Strategy: Renewed Interest

A reduction in the Treasury issuance target in 4Q, FOMC’s rate pause, and weaker US job data are seen as the main factors behind the recent surge...

BRI Danareksa Research

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Remains Soft into NFP

Stocks are positive in Europe, but gains are modest, while US equity futures are very narrowly mixed after disappointing AAPL results last night.

Scotiabank

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