Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>FDI into China turned negative. To explain why, we look at interest rate differentials, profitability, and ‘uninvestability.’ Meanwhile, the country has slipped into deflation again as it buys gold like there is no tomorrow.</li>
<li>US consumer credit is rolling over as the highest yields in decades take their toll. When credit growth stumbles, GDP growth will soon follow. </li>
<li>We look at key takeaways of the latest Fed SLOOS, the surprising decline in oil prices, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and earnings surprises &amp; stock market reactions.</li>
</ul>


FDI into China turned negative. To explain why, we look at interest rate differentials, profitability, and ‘uninvestability.’ Meanwhile, the country has slipped into deflation again as it buys gold like there is no tomorrow.
US consumer credit is rolling over as the highest yields in decades take their toll. When credit growth stumbles, GDP growth will soon follow. 
We look at key takeaways of the latest Fed SLOOS, the surprising decline in oil prices, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and earnings surprises &amp; stock market reactions.


The Weekly Market Monitor – China Makes History, Nobody Likes US Debt, and a Massive Chart on Yields

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is ending the week on the defensive, losing ground versus all its major currency peers.</li><li>Stocks are trading higher in Europe, after some hefty losses in Asian markets, while US equity futures are trading with modest gains.</li><li>Bonds are broadly higher, however. US Treasurys are underperforming mildly, with 10Y yields down 3bps. Gilts are outperforming (10Y yields down 7-8bps) behind weak UK data. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is ending the week on the defensive, losing ground versus all its major currency peers.Stocks are trading higher in Europe, after some hefty losses in Asian markets, while US equity futures are trading with modest gains.Bonds are broadly higher, however. US Treasurys are underperforming mildly, with 10Y yields down 3bps. Gilts are outperforming (10Y yields down 7-8bps) behind weak UK data. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Softer as US Yields Decline

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go of the steering wheel on USD real rates.</li><li>The weekly credit data from the US economy keeps weakening and we are en route for a credit contraction in the US during Q1/Q2 next year.</li><li>Powell is probably right to let go of the tightness in USD real rates, but the question is whether he could be tempted to take back control in December in a final policy error?</li></ul>

The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go of the steering wheel on USD real rates.The weekly credit data from the US economy keeps weakening and we are en route for a credit contraction in the US during Q1/Q2 next year.Powell is probably right to let go of the tightness in USD real rates, but the question is whether he could be tempted to take back control in December in a final policy error?

Steno Signals #74 – Did King USD Just Break?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.</li>
<li>We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.</li>
<li>Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.</li>
</ul>


We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.
We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.
Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.


Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

<ul><li>The USD’s consolidation is extending a little further after its early week decline, leaving it mixed versus the majors.</li><li>Asian regional FX is outperforming, perhaps reflecting relief that the Biden/Xi meeting ended without any hitch and with promises of improved relations.</li><li>Stocks are somewhat softer overall, however, while bonds are firmer (with Gilts outperforming slightly). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD’s consolidation is extending a little further after its early week decline, leaving it mixed versus the majors.Asian regional FX is outperforming, perhaps reflecting relief that the Biden/Xi meeting ended without any hitch and with promises of improved relations.Stocks are somewhat softer overall, however, while bonds are firmer (with Gilts outperforming slightly). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Mixed, Consolidation Extends

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

The Weekly Market Monitor – China Makes History, Nobody Likes US Debt, and a Massive Chart on Yields

Start your week in financial markets with last week's biggest charts and stories! The Weekly Market Monitor will keep you ahead of markets.

Jeroen Blokland

FX Daily - USD Softer as US Yields Decline

The USD is ending the week on the defensive, losing ground versus all its major currency peers. Stocks are trading higher in Europe, after some...

Scotiabank

Steno Signals #74 – Did King USD Just Break?

The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go...

Steno Research

Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

There is significant evidence that global equities $ACWI have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. It all started when we discussed that the...

Vermilion Research

FX Daily - USD Mixed, Consolidation Extends

Asian regional FX is outperforming, perhaps reflecting relief that the Biden/Xi meeting ended without any hitch and with promises of improved...

Scotiabank

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