External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD retains a soft undertone but the DXY is essentially consolidating near yesterday’s closing low for the index as investors await developments.</li><li>Lower US CPI data has done a solid for EM FX while high beta FX is generally firmer on the session, reflecting a sea of green on the equity screens.</li><li>Asian markets rose strongly on the added impetus of a significant liquidity add by the PBoC through its medium-term lending facility. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD retains a soft undertone but the DXY is essentially consolidating near yesterday’s closing low for the index as investors await developments.Lower US CPI data has done a solid for EM FX while high beta FX is generally firmer on the session, reflecting a sea of green on the equity screens.Asian markets rose strongly on the added impetus of a significant liquidity add by the PBoC through its medium-term lending facility. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Steadies Ahead of Retail Sales

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss yesterday’s CPI print before moving on to crude oil and then ending with fixed income positioning.</li><li>President Biden’s approval ratings continue to sour as the country heads into potential Oil price headwinds and numerous unsolved foreign policy challenges.</li><li>The Biden camp has launched a number of PR offensives during 2023 – most notably the coining of “Bidenomics”, but none have managed to close the gap, which has even accelerated since summertime.</li></ul>

This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss yesterday’s CPI print before moving on to crude oil and then ending with fixed income positioning.President Biden’s approval ratings continue to sour as the country heads into potential Oil price headwinds and numerous unsolved foreign policy challenges.The Biden camp has launched a number of PR offensives during 2023 – most notably the coining of “Bidenomics”, but none have managed to close the gap, which has even accelerated since summertime.

5 Things We Watch: Trump, Electricity, CPI, Crude Oil, Fixed Income

<ul><li>Last week’s broad rise in the USD is showing some signs of rolling over as markets position for the key economic releases due from the US in the next couple of days.</li><li>Today’s October CPI is expected to show a 0.1% rise in headline prices and a deceleration in the year-on-year rate to 3.3%, down from 3.7% in September.</li><li>Core prices are expected to rise 0.3% for a 4.1% gain in the October year—unchanged from September’s read. Retail Sales tomorrow are expected to reflect soft headline consumer activity in October (-0.3% m/m). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Last week’s broad rise in the USD is showing some signs of rolling over as markets position for the key economic releases due from the US in the next couple of days.Today’s October CPI is expected to show a 0.1% rise in headline prices and a deceleration in the year-on-year rate to 3.3%, down from 3.7% in September.Core prices are expected to rise 0.3% for a 4.1% gain in the October year—unchanged from September’s read. Retail Sales tomorrow are expected to reflect soft headline consumer activity in October (-0.3% m/m). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul><li>We just had the October inflation data from the US, and our projections were spot on.</li><li>0% MoM and 3.23% YoY, is a sign of successful cooling but also that tailwinds from base-effects are long gone.</li><li>As we rightly called, the energy component has collapsed, and while the category doesn’t contribute much (in its separate bracket) it does however feed into most of the other.</li></ul>

We just had the October inflation data from the US, and our projections were spot on.0% MoM and 3.23% YoY, is a sign of successful cooling but also that tailwinds from base-effects are long gone.As we rightly called, the energy component has collapsed, and while the category doesn’t contribute much (in its separate bracket) it does however feed into most of the other.

US CPI Reaction Nugget: Further Fuel for the Market Rally

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul><li>While the internet seems totally preoccupied with the San Francisco summit between Xi and Biden, I find other news and analysis much more interesting right now.</li><li>This week saw the release of a major New York Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Presidential Election – and some of the results were outright shocking.</li><li>I’m now at a point where a Trump win next November looks very likely to me.</li></ul>

While the internet seems totally preoccupied with the San Francisco summit between Xi and Biden, I find other news and analysis much more interesting right now.This week saw the release of a major New York Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Presidential Election – and some of the results were outright shocking.I’m now at a point where a Trump win next November looks very likely to me.

Great Game – 3 Reasons Why Trump Will Win – And 1 Reason He Won’t

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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FX Daily - USD Steadies Ahead of Retail Sales

The USD retains a soft undertone but the DXY is essentially consolidating near yesterday’s closing low for the index as investors await developments.

Scotiabank

5 Things We Watch: Trump, Electricity, CPI, Crude Oil, Fixed Income

This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Mixed Ahead of CPI

Last week’s broad rise in the USD is showing some signs of rolling over as markets position for the key economic releases due from the US in the...

Scotiabank

US CPI Reaction Nugget: Further Fuel for the Market Rally

We just had the October inflation data from the US, and our projections were spot on. 0% MoM and 3.23% YoY, is a sign of successful cooling but...

Steno Research

Great Game – 3 Reasons Why Trump Will Win – And 1 Reason He Won’t

This week saw the release of a major New York Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Presidential Election – and some of the results were outright shocking.

Steno Research

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