Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/042/536/original/Screen%20Shot%202018-01-19%20at%202.31.08%20PM.png?1516334860" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="42536"></figure><div class="content-highlight">
After remaining surprisingly subdued for much of last year, US inflation is finally accelerating. There are of course a plethora of underlying or 'core' inflation gauges but one of the best and most important to track is <a href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/median-cpi.aspx" target="_blank">the Cleveland Fed's median CPI estimate</a>.
This measure tracks the sub-component of the CPI basket whose monthly gain is in the middle of each month's distribution. By construction, the noisy 'wings' of the CPI are stripped out, leaving a cleaner 'signal' of core inflationary…
</div>


After remaining surprisingly subdued for much of last year, US inflation is finally accelerating. There are of course a plethora of underlying or 'core' inflation gauges but one of the best and most important to track is the Cleveland Fed's median CPI estimate.
This measure tracks the sub-component of the CPI basket whose monthly gain is in the middle of each month's distribution. By construction, the noisy 'wings' of the CPI are stripped out, leaving a cleaner 'signal' of core inflationary…


Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

DXY is missing a leg down.  It has two targets just below 88, but may trade sideways in broadly a 91-95 range before breaking down to those levels in Q2.Eventual weakness of that degree is supported by the Euro and Sterling crosses.The Yen is less clear, but one scenario allows for a drop below 105.

DXY is missing a leg down.  It has two targets just below 88, but may trade sideways in broadly a 91-95 range before breaking down to those levels in Q2.Eventual weakness of that degree is supported by the Euro and Sterling crosses.The Yen is less clear, but one scenario allows for a drop below 105.

US Dollar: DXY Headed Below 88; with a Little Help from the Yen?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

EEM displays increasing signals of a top and risk of a decline back to trendline support at 41-42 if pivot support is broken. Near term, one would assume weakness is pricing in a Fed December rate hike, however the USD has failed to perk up which in theory is EM supportive but EEM has taken a hit with some pretty descent sell volume and currently pressing on key pivot support. We are searching for a catalyst outside of the USD and keeping an eye on credit spreads, yield momentum, HYG and EM's…

EEM displays increasing signals of a top and risk of a decline back to trendline support at 41-42 if pivot support is broken. Near term, one would assume weakness is pricing in a Fed December rate hike, however the USD has failed to perk up which in theory is EM supportive but EEM has taken a hit with some pretty descent sell volume and currently pressing on key pivot support. We are searching for a catalyst outside of the USD and keeping an eye on credit spreads, yield momentum, HYG and EM's…

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus, Aletheia Capital

Chris Roberts

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

The US Dollar’s trend, even just against the majors, is either bullish or bearish, depending on which cross rate you’re focused on. This lack of trend conformity continues to create widely diverse opinions on the Dollar’s direction.The most important forex rate in the world is the US Dollar/Euro (EUR – 1.1610), that and the closely correlated US Dollar Index (DXY – 94.76) are the FX rates we focus most on in this report.Our view remains bullish on the Euro and, thus not surprisingly bearish on the US Dollar Index. The Euro’s advance out of the 28-month range between €1.0500-1.1500, the subsequent break above the August 2016 high of €1.1714 and the strong advance to €1.2092 cumulatively increase the odds that the Euro has registered a major cyclical low.A cyclical advance from January’s €1.0341 low targets the major resistance around €1.5000, a barrier for almost 40 years. The Euro’s recent decline is seen as corrective, and we are now approaching an area of great importance to our bullish Euro view.This report also features analysis of the Japanese Yen (JPY – 113.71), British Pound (GBP – 1.3171) and the Australian Dollar (AUD - 0.7691).

The US Dollar’s trend, even just against the majors, is either bullish or bearish, depending on which cross rate you’re focused on. This lack of trend conformity continues to create widely diverse opinions on the Dollar’s direction.The most important forex rate in the world is the US Dollar/Euro (EUR – 1.1610), that and the closely correlated US Dollar Index (DXY – 94.76) are the FX rates we focus most on in this report.Our view remains bullish on the Euro and, thus not surprisingly bearish on the US Dollar Index. The Euro’s advance out of the 28-month range between €1.0500-1.1500, the subsequent break above the August 2016 high of €1.1714 and the strong advance to €1.2092 cumulatively increase the odds that the Euro has registered a major cyclical low.A cyclical advance from January’s €1.0341 low targets the major resistance around €1.5000, a barrier for almost 40 years. The Euro’s recent decline is seen as corrective, and we are now approaching an area of great importance to our bullish Euro view.This report also features analysis of the Japanese Yen (JPY – 113.71), British Pound (GBP – 1.3171) and the Australian Dollar (AUD - 0.7691).

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Chart of the Day: That 2008 Feeling....

After remaining surprisingly subdued for much of last year, US inflation is finally accelerating. There are of course a plethora of underlying or...

Richard Iley

US Dollar: DXY Headed Below 88; with a Little Help from the Yen?

DXY is missing a leg down. It has two targets just below 88, but may trade sideways in broadly a 91-95 range before breaking down to those levels...

Peter Beuttell

EEM Warning Signals Mounting

EEM displays increasing signals of a top and risk of a decline back to trendline support at 41-42 if pivot support is broken. Near term, one would...

Thomas Schroeder

US Dollar: One Size Does Not Fit All

The US Dollar’s trend, even just against the majors, is either bullish or bearish, depending on which cross rate you’re focused on. This lack of...

Chris Roberts

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)