Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Inflation Came down fast across Europe, yet bond yields continued to rally. We think markets are wrong on yields even though Italy and France have zero appetite to sustainably lower their budget deficits.</li>
<li>We discuss falling consumer sentiment and the increasing parallel between current macro-consumer conditions and Q4 2018 when retail sales tumbled. Are we in for a rerun? </li>
<li>Though not the mother of all stock market indices, several indices have dropped below their 200-day moving average, while the equally weighted S&amp;P 500 Index has reversed all of this year’s gains. </li>
</ul>


Inflation Came down fast across Europe, yet bond yields continued to rally. We think markets are wrong on yields even though Italy and France have zero appetite to sustainably lower their budget deficits.
We discuss falling consumer sentiment and the increasing parallel between current macro-consumer conditions and Q4 2018 when retail sales tumbled. Are we in for a rerun? 
Though not the mother of all stock market indices, several indices have dropped below their 200-day moving average, while the equally weighted S&amp;P 500 Index has reversed all of this year’s gains. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Immaculate Disinflation, Spiking Yields, and the Waiting Continues

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.</li>
<li>This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.</li>
<li>We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare</li>
</ul>


Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The launch of the SRBI has attracted IDR24.5tn, with the majority on a 12-month term at 6.40%, slightly higher than the INDOGB 1-year yield to lure foreign inflows.</li><li>The secondary market features of the SRBI will serve as a liquidity source for banks, with increasing expectations that BI may intervene directly in the forex market.</li><li>The probability of a Fed pause remains high, although the "higher for longer" narrative will prevail.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The launch of the SRBI has attracted IDR24.5tn, with the majority on a 12-month term at 6.40%, slightly higher than the INDOGB 1-year yield to lure foreign inflows.The secondary market features of the SRBI will serve as a liquidity source for banks, with increasing expectations that BI may intervene directly in the forex market.The probability of a Fed pause remains high, although the "higher for longer" narrative will prevail.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: Policy Rate in Focus

<ul><li>The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.</li><li>While the US headline Aug CPI is expected to increase, core inflation is expected to maintain its trend of subdued readings.</li><li>This more stable narrative regarding monetary policy has the potential to alleviate the recent market volatility which led to a weaker IDR on a stronger DXY, rising government bond yields, and the continuation of outflows from the equity market.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.While the US headline Aug CPI is expected to increase, core inflation is expected to maintain its trend of subdued readings.This more stable narrative regarding monetary policy has the potential to alleviate the recent market volatility which led to a weaker IDR on a stronger DXY, rising government bond yields, and the continuation of outflows from the equity market.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: More Signals

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Takeaways: Divergence between Fed and ISM sentiment. OPEC cuts and manufacturing bullish oil?</li>
<li>More ground to cover for Powell to be reflected in USD strength</li>
<li>We have built a sentiment tracker that uses FOMC minutes and speeches of Fed members as data and assigns positive and negative scores to adjectives in order to gauge what the Fed’s sentiment on the economy is.</li>
</ul>


Takeaways: Divergence between Fed and ISM sentiment. OPEC cuts and manufacturing bullish oil?
More ground to cover for Powell to be reflected in USD strength
We have built a sentiment tracker that uses FOMC minutes and speeches of Fed members as data and assigns positive and negative scores to adjectives in order to gauge what the Fed’s sentiment on the economy is.


Services Nugget: How Do the Central Banks React?

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

The Weekly Market Monitor – Immaculate Disinflation, Spiking Yields, and the Waiting Continues

Inflation is collapsing and even turned negative in the Netherlands. Yet, bond yields continue to spike, providing ample downside risk for equities.

Jeroen Blokland

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: Policy Rate in Focus

The launch of the SRBI has attracted IDR24.5tn, with the majority on a 12-month term at 6.40%, slightly higher than the INDOGB 1-year yield to lure...

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: More Signals

The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.

BRI Danareksa Research

Services Nugget: How Do the Central Banks React?

Takeaways: Divergence between Fed and ISM sentimentOPEC cuts and manufacturing bullish oil? More ground to cover for Powell to be reflected in USD...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)