Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

First Trust Dj Internet Ind / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week (8/22/23) we discussed our expectations for an oversold bounce due to an overwhelming number of indexes/Sectors/industries testing multi-month supports, combined with Treasury yields and the DXY testing resistance.</li>
<li>The bounce has begun with the SPP ending higher last week for the first time in a month, and it is possible we have seen the lows for this pause/pullback.</li>
<li>A meaningful correction cannot happen if the SPX is above 4300-4325, but we would not be surprised to see another month or more of consolidation between 4300 and 4600.</li>
</ul>


Last week (8/22/23) we discussed our expectations for an oversold bounce due to an overwhelming number of indexes/Sectors/industries testing multi-month supports, combined with Treasury yields and the DXY testing resistance.
The bounce has begun with the SPP ending higher last week for the first time in a month, and it is possible we have seen the lows for this pause/pullback.
A meaningful correction cannot happen if the SPX is above 4300-4325, but we would not be surprised to see another month or more of consolidation between 4300 and 4600.


Oversold Bounce Underway Amid Consolidation Phase; Buys in IT Consulting, Uranium, Technology

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The most pre-announced recession in human history is still yet to arrive and I don’t think it’s possible to find a period in time where the economist consensus has been continuously on the bearish side of actual outcomes, outside of the one we have just been through.</li>
<li>From a soft landing to a hard landing to NO landing.</li>
<li>That has been the pattern for economic projections both in Q4-2022 and Q1 to Q4-2023.</li>
</ul>


The most pre-announced recession in human history is still yet to arrive and I don’t think it’s possible to find a period in time where the economist consensus has been continuously on the bearish side of actual outcomes, outside of the one we have just been through.
From a soft landing to a hard landing to NO landing.
That has been the pattern for economic projections both in Q4-2022 and Q1 to Q4-2023.


Steno Signals #62 – The Recession Is Called Off (By Consensus)

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Here, we’re all about diving into market positioning to uncover some exciting insights about the bigger picture.</li><li>As always, we’ll be digging into the data, pulling out the key points, and spotting the most interesting market trends for you.</li><li>Without further ado let’s jump right into itAs we cautioned back in July, it’s no surprise that volatility has been on the rise throughout August.</li></ul>

Here, we’re all about diving into market positioning to uncover some exciting insights about the bigger picture.As always, we’ll be digging into the data, pulling out the key points, and spotting the most interesting market trends for you.Without further ado let’s jump right into itAs we cautioned back in July, it’s no surprise that volatility has been on the rise throughout August.

Positioning Watch: Has the August Pain Weakened the Bulls?

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).</li>
<li>As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.</li>
</ul>


Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).
As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.


Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

<ul>
<li>Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.</li>
<li>Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward</li>
<li>Longer-Term support on the S&amp;P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.</li>
</ul>


Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.
Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward
Longer-Term support on the S&amp;P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.


Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Oversold Bounce Underway Amid Consolidation Phase; Buys in IT Consulting, Uranium, Technology

Our 8/22 expectations for oversold bounce coming to fruition as major multi-month supports hold $SPX $DJI $XLK $ACWI, & Treasury yields $TNX $TYX...

Vermilion Research

Steno Signals #62 – The Recession Is Called Off (By Consensus)

The most pre-announced recession in human history is still yet to arrive and I don’t think it’s possible to find a period in time where the...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Has the August Pain Weakened the Bulls?

Here, we’re all about diving into market positioning to uncover some exciting insights about the bigger picture. As always, we’ll be digging into...

Steno Research

Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

We remain constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93 (1+ year base support). 10-year Treasury yield $TNX holding below 4.3...

Vermilion Research

Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

$SPX broke support discussed in our Aug 8 Compass (50-day MA/4460), leading to change in character (now sell the rips) and deeper pullback. Expect...

Vermilion Research

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