Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>“I don’t have a hard-and-fast rule, but I would not like to see it drift above 2%.”— Janet Yellen on real interest costs, speaking to Bloomberg.</li><li>Nothing is more revealing than a bureaucrat unintentionally exposing the true objectives of fiscal and monetary policy in “officialese,” making it difficult for most to grasp the underlying ramifications.</li><li>Janet Yellen addressed the ballooning interest payments as a percentage of GDP in her interview with Bloomberg on Friday, referring to the “real net interest cost of debt” as her guiding metric for assessing the sustainability of U.S. debt levels.</li></ul>

“I don’t have a hard-and-fast rule, but I would not like to see it drift above 2%.”— Janet Yellen on real interest costs, speaking to Bloomberg.Nothing is more revealing than a bureaucrat unintentionally exposing the true objectives of fiscal and monetary policy in “officialese,” making it difficult for most to grasp the underlying ramifications.Janet Yellen addressed the ballooning interest payments as a percentage of GDP in her interview with Bloomberg on Friday, referring to the “real net interest cost of debt” as her guiding metric for assessing the sustainability of U.S. debt levels.

Bond Yield Watch: Yellen has decided to inflate the debt away. Position accordingly..

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>China’s Corn Under Extreme Weather Threat China's corn production is currently under pressure due to extreme weather events in the country.</li><li>Still, as it seems this might not be enough to even lift prices up a little bit. Local prices have ticked higher since the end of September, but they’re still close to four-year lows.</li><li>Stockpiles of corn are plentiful, and demand is currently sluggish as the second-largest economy of the world battles its own economy demons at the moment.</li></ul>

China’s Corn Under Extreme Weather Threat China's corn production is currently under pressure due to extreme weather events in the country.Still, as it seems this might not be enough to even lift prices up a little bit. Local prices have ticked higher since the end of September, but they’re still close to four-year lows.Stockpiles of corn are plentiful, and demand is currently sluggish as the second-largest economy of the world battles its own economy demons at the moment.

China’s Corn Under Extreme Weather Threat // Bad News Again for Orange Production

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>The fiscal briefings from China last weekend were exactly what we feared and have been warning about—a big nothing burger.</li><li>China keeps applying supply-side measures to a demand-driven problem, which is unlikely to succeed.</li><li>What China really needs is a forced increase in demand across the system, but instead, they’re focused on trying to incentivize demand for assets or reshuffle credit profiles.</li></ul>

The fiscal briefings from China last weekend were exactly what we feared and have been warning about—a big nothing burger.China keeps applying supply-side measures to a demand-driven problem, which is unlikely to succeed.What China really needs is a forced increase in demand across the system, but instead, they’re focused on trying to incentivize demand for assets or reshuffle credit profiles.

The Drill: Geopolitical risk premium in crude now almost gone

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The $SPX continues to hold below 5783, the upper-end of an important target/resistance area (5670-5783) we've discussed since our 8/13/24 Compass, just after SPX hit our 5100-5191 "expected pullback zone."</li>
<li>The current "breakout" above 5670 is an extraordinarily weak one, which suggests a false breakout/bull trap is brewing; SPX has spent nearly three weeks above 5670, with zero upside follow-through.</li>
<li>As long as the SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives.</li>
</ul>


The $SPX continues to hold below 5783, the upper-end of an important target/resistance area (5670-5783) we've discussed since our 8/13/24 Compass, just after SPX hit our 5100-5191 "expected pullback zone."
The current "breakout" above 5670 is an extraordinarily weak one, which suggests a false breakout/bull trap is brewing; SPX has spent nearly three weeks above 5670, with zero upside follow-through.
As long as the SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives.


Bull Trap Still Brewing?; Treasury Yields and DXY Climbing; Stay Defensive With $SPX Below 5783

<ul><li>Disaster Averted - But Not Solved The European Commission has proposed to delay the Deforestation free products regulation (EU DR) by 12 months.</li><li>The law has been in place since May 2023, and was due to enter into effect on 30 December 2024.</li><li>EU DR requires that targeted commodities (cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, rubber, soy, wood) and relevant products sold in the EU must not be produced on land that was deforested after 2020.</li></ul>

Disaster Averted - But Not Solved The European Commission has proposed to delay the Deforestation free products regulation (EU DR) by 12 months.The law has been in place since May 2023, and was due to enter into effect on 30 December 2024.EU DR requires that targeted commodities (cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, rubber, soy, wood) and relevant products sold in the EU must not be produced on land that was deforested after 2020.

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Bond Yield Watch: Yellen has decided to inflate the debt away. Position accordingly..

“I don’t have a hard-and-fast rule, but I would not like to see it drift above 2%.”— Janet Yellen on real interest costs, speaking to...

Steno Research

China’s Corn Under Extreme Weather Threat // Bad News Again for Orange Production

China’s Corn Under Extreme Weather Threat China's corn production is currently under pressure due to extreme weather events in the country.

The Commodity Report

The Drill: Geopolitical risk premium in crude now almost gone

The fiscal briefings from China last weekend were exactly what we feared and have been warning about—a big nothing burger. China keeps applying...

Steno Research

Bull Trap Still Brewing?; Treasury Yields and DXY Climbing; Stay Defensive With $SPX Below 5783

Bull Trap Still Brewing?; Only Confirmed on a Break Below SPX 5670; Treasury Yields, bond volatility (MOVE index), and DXY Climbing, all risk-off...

Vermilion Research

Disaster Averted - But Not Solved

Disaster Averted - But Not Solved The European Commission has proposed to delay the Deforestation free products regulation (EU DR) by 12 months.

The Commodity Report

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