Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Good morning from Copenhagen.</li><li>It’s make-or-break this week with Powell taking the stage on Wednesday to reveal whether the rumors from Nick Timiraos about the Fed considering a 50bps cut were actually true after all.</li><li>Markets have been desperately hoping for the 50bps cut, as evidenced by the price action where Fixed Income is being bought regardless of the economic news.</li></ul>

Good morning from Copenhagen.It’s make-or-break this week with Powell taking the stage on Wednesday to reveal whether the rumors from Nick Timiraos about the Fed considering a 50bps cut were actually true after all.Markets have been desperately hoping for the 50bps cut, as evidenced by the price action where Fixed Income is being bought regardless of the economic news.

The Week at a Glance – Is a 50bps Cut Good if Paired with Economic Weakness?

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 65% probability of a 50 bps rate cut and a 35% chance of a 25 bps cut.</li>
<li>Given the strong rate cut expectations since mid-August, the focus now shifts to the scale and depth of the cuts for the rest of the year.</li>
<li>WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.75 on 16/Sep from 1.09 on 10/Sep and its OI PCR slid to 0.76 from 0.77 during the same period.</li>
</ul>


The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 65% probability of a 50 bps rate cut and a 35% chance of a 25 bps cut.
Given the strong rate cut expectations since mid-August, the focus now shifts to the scale and depth of the cuts for the rest of the year.
WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.75 on 16/Sep from 1.09 on 10/Sep and its OI PCR slid to 0.76 from 0.77 during the same period.


Rate Cut Speculation Fuels WTI Crude Oil, But China Clouds Outlook

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 06/Sept, US crude inventories increased by 0.8m barrels, lower than the 0.9m barrel forecast. Gasoline stockpiles rose unexpectedly, while distillate inventories grew more than anticipated.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rise 40 Bcf for the week ending 06/Sep, lower than analyst expectations of a 49 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 9.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>BP, Occidental Petroleum, and Exxon Mobil see target price cuts. Schlumberger announces breakthrough in Lithium production.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 06/Sept, US crude inventories increased by 0.8m barrels, lower than the 0.9m barrel forecast. Gasoline stockpiles rose unexpectedly, while distillate inventories grew more than anticipated.
US natural gas inventories rise 40 Bcf for the week ending 06/Sep, lower than analyst expectations of a 49 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 9.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
BP, Occidental Petroleum, and Exxon Mobil see target price cuts. Schlumberger announces breakthrough in Lithium production.


[ETP 2024/37] Oil Prices Rebound but Weak Demand Limits Gains, Nat-Gas Rises on Output Cuts

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>A lot is happening in markets ahead of what could be a significant turning point in sentiment, with the August CPI report landing in our inboxes at 14:30 CPH time.</li><li>The debate between Harris and Trump seems to have set the tone in markets leading up to the event, with the USD selling off as markets agree that Trump is likely the more bullish of the two on USD.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.A lot is happening in markets ahead of what could be a significant turning point in sentiment, with the August CPI report landing in our inboxes at 14:30 CPH time.The debate between Harris and Trump seems to have set the tone in markets leading up to the event, with the USD selling off as markets agree that Trump is likely the more bullish of the two on USD.

Positioning Watch: Markets Are Positioned for Softness (in Rates)

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Brent crude fell to a 17-month low after the markets largely ignored OPEC+’s decision not to increase production.</li><li>This highlights once again the point we’ve been making: the current cycle of supply cuts is unsustainable, and as time goes on, it only becomes increasingly unsustainable.</li><li>The only viable option left for OPEC might be to engage in a market-share war, driving out producers with higher marginal costs by pushing prices down.</li></ul>

Brent crude fell to a 17-month low after the markets largely ignored OPEC+’s decision not to increase production.This highlights once again the point we’ve been making: the current cycle of supply cuts is unsustainable, and as time goes on, it only becomes increasingly unsustainable.The only viable option left for OPEC might be to engage in a market-share war, driving out producers with higher marginal costs by pushing prices down.

The Drill: The left tail in oil just got bigger

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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The Week at a Glance – Is a 50bps Cut Good if Paired with Economic Weakness?

Good morning from Copenhagen. It’s make-or-break this week with Powell taking the stage on Wednesday to reveal whether the rumors from Nick...

Steno Research

Rate Cut Speculation Fuels WTI Crude Oil, But China Clouds Outlook

Oil prices rose on rate cut expectations, but gains were limited. Traders expect a 50 bps cut, with options data showing increased bullish...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/37] Oil Prices Rebound but Weak Demand Limits Gains, Nat-Gas Rises on Output Cuts

Oil prices rise on Hurricane impact but weak demand caps gains. Nat-gas prices rise on warmer weather forecasts and production cuts. BP,...

Mint Finance

Positioning Watch: Markets Are Positioned for Softness (in Rates)

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. A lot is happening in markets ahead of what could be a significant turning point...

Steno Research

The Drill: The left tail in oil just got bigger

Brent crude fell to a 17-month low after the markets largely ignored OPEC+’s decision not to increase production. This highlights once again the...

Steno Research

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