Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.</li>
<li>After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels </li>
</ul>


The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.
We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.
After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels 


Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets, Nomura - The Week Ahead

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets

Nomura - The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Release of key economic data from Europe, Asia, and the US, with a focus on inflation, unemployment, and consumer sentiment</li><li>Market theme of "Goldilocks" prevails with lower US yields, rising equities, and a softer dollar</li><li>Outlook for the US economy includes expectations of a stable core PCE inflation rate and positive consumer sentiment towards the economy</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Release of key economic data from Europe, Asia, and the US, with a focus on inflation, unemployment, and consumer sentimentMarket theme of "Goldilocks" prevails with lower US yields, rising equities, and a softer dollarOutlook for the US economy includes expectations of a stable core PCE inflation rate and positive consumer sentiment towards the economyThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US Core PCE Deflator, Euro Area Inflation and Tokyo CPI

<ul>
<li>Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.</li>
<li>It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).</li>
</ul>


Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).


Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Take aways: Low margins and high stock levels mean that China will export its excess metal capacity. Other commodities like crude and its derivatives look weak as well. Gold only strong performing commodity in China due to domestic economic weakness .</li>
<li>Welcome to this week’s energy cable with a focus on the economic troubles in China and its impact on commodity prices.</li>
<li>This week’s piece will have a lot of charts, therefore we’ll keep the text short.</li>
</ul>


Take aways: Low margins and high stock levels mean that China will export its excess metal capacity. Other commodities like crude and its derivatives look weak as well. Gold only strong performing commodity in China due to domestic economic weakness .
Welcome to this week’s energy cable with a focus on the economic troubles in China and its impact on commodity prices.
This week’s piece will have a lot of charts, therefore we’ll keep the text short.


Energy Cable: China is killing the commodity super cycle

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>During last week, the International Energy Association (IEA) as well as OPEC both announced that demand for oil is slowing, revising down previous demand forecasts for the year and beyond.</li><li>The world is seeing a major deceleration in oil demand growth led by China, with inventories set to rise next year even if OPEC+ were to postpone its plans to ease output cuts, the IEA stated.</li><li>Meanwhile, the growth from the US won’t be able to offset the slowdown from China, according to the agency.</li></ul>

During last week, the International Energy Association (IEA) as well as OPEC both announced that demand for oil is slowing, revising down previous demand forecasts for the year and beyond.The world is seeing a major deceleration in oil demand growth led by China, with inventories set to rise next year even if OPEC+ were to postpone its plans to ease output cuts, the IEA stated.Meanwhile, the growth from the US won’t be able to offset the slowdown from China, according to the agency.

Copper Inventories Back at Pre-Covid Levels & Oil Demand Cuts Everywhere

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Upgrading Utilities $XLU to Overweight; Many Indexes Testing Resistance $SPX $DJI $IJH $IWM $XRT $EEM; Expecting SPX to Roll Over; $NVDA and $SMH...

Vermilion Research

US Core PCE Deflator, Euro Area Inflation and Tokyo CPI

In the upcoming week, important economic data releases and events will include Q2 GDP, house prices, euro area inflation and unemployment, UK...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Energy Cable: China is killing the commodity super cycle

Take aways: Low margins and high stock levels mean that China will export its excess metal capacityOther commodities like crude and its...

Steno Research

Copper Inventories Back at Pre-Covid Levels & Oil Demand Cuts Everywhere

The world is seeing a major deceleration in oil demand growth led by China, with inventories set to rise next year even if OPEC+ were to postpone...

The Commodity Report

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52-week Range

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