Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

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<ul><li>Historic Coffee Price Rally During the week Coffee Futures hit a new all-time high.</li><li>Supply concerns continue to fuel the rally in a strongly backwardated futures market.</li><li>The drought that El Niño weather brought over to Brazil over the last summer continue to be persistent.</li></ul>

Historic Coffee Price Rally During the week Coffee Futures hit a new all-time high.Supply concerns continue to fuel the rally in a strongly backwardated futures market.The drought that El Niño weather brought over to Brazil over the last summer continue to be persistent.

Historic Coffee Price Rally & WASDE Report Recap

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

<ul><li>Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions Saxo Bank published their annual “outrageous predictions” for 2025.</li><li>I actually found a few theses that I don’t even find that outrageous in its directionaly.</li><li>For example: “The crypto market quadruples to more than USD 10 trillion, the US dollar falls 20% against major currencies and 30% versus gold.</li></ul>

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions Saxo Bank published their annual “outrageous predictions” for 2025.I actually found a few theses that I don’t even find that outrageous in its directionaly.For example: “The crypto market quadruples to more than USD 10 trillion, the US dollar falls 20% against major currencies and 30% versus gold.

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

<ul><li>Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs - putting out a price target of $3.000 USD till end of 2025.</li><li>The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case.</li><li>The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case. “In our baseline forecast, we continue to see oil prices as range-bound, with Brent likely to stay in a $70-$85/bbl range. I</li></ul>

Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs - putting out a price target of $3.000 USD till end of 2025.The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case.The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case. “In our baseline forecast, we continue to see oil prices as range-bound, with Brent likely to stay in a $70-$85/bbl range. I

Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 // Bonds Into Year-End?

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

<ul><li>Cold Front in the US dominates Natgas Prices During next week another cold front will arrive in the upper part of the US.</li><li>The temperature anomaly is quite negative - accordingly, natgas prices are currently on the rise.</li><li>As seasonally remain bearish and these temperature anomalies occur often during the winter months, we’ll keep our eye on short opportunities in the market.</li></ul>

Cold Front in the US dominates Natgas Prices During next week another cold front will arrive in the upper part of the US.The temperature anomaly is quite negative - accordingly, natgas prices are currently on the rise.As seasonally remain bearish and these temperature anomalies occur often during the winter months, we’ll keep our eye on short opportunities in the market.

Cold Front in the US Dominates Natgas Prices // Chinese Soybean Data and the Fade of Its Economy

ICE US - Cocoa Futures
The Cocoa contract is the world benchmark for the global cocoa market. The contract prices the physical delivery of exchange-grade product from a variety of African, Asian and Central and South American origins to any of five US delivery ports (Port of New York District, Delaware River Port District, Port of Hampton Roads, Port of Albany, or Port of Baltimore). Calls for delivery of any kind of cocoa bean as   long as it meets FDA standards for importation.   
Standards: Established by Exch. licensed graders  in accordance with specified tolerances for defects, bean count, bean size and other standards.

<ul><li>Latest CTA-Flow Forecast CTA positioning and UBS' flow model indicate slightly bullish momentum for some agriculture commodities as well as energy and on the flip side bearish momentum for precious metals and industrial metals.</li><li>Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our market setups.</li><li>“In currencies, the US dollar gained renewed momentum from Trump’s win, with the 1.7% rise in the DXY index on 6 November the largest one-day advance in two years.</li></ul>

Latest CTA-Flow Forecast CTA positioning and UBS' flow model indicate slightly bullish momentum for some agriculture commodities as well as energy and on the flip side bearish momentum for precious metals and industrial metals.Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our market setups.“In currencies, the US dollar gained renewed momentum from Trump’s win, with the 1.7% rise in the DXY index on 6 November the largest one-day advance in two years.

Hershey’s Warns About Cocoa Inflation // Latest CTA-Flow Forecast

The Commodity Report
Data-Driven Commodity Research
• The Commodity Report

Historic Coffee Price Rally & WASDE Report Recap

Historic Coffee Price Rally During the week Coffee Futures hit a new all-time high. Supply concerns continue to fuel the rally in a strongly...

The Commodity Report

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions Saxo Bank published their annual “outrageous predictions” for 2025. I actually found a few theses that I...

The Commodity Report

Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 // Bonds Into Year-End?

Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts,...

The Commodity Report

Cold Front in the US Dominates Natgas Prices // Chinese Soybean Data and the Fade of Its Economy

As seasonally remain bearish and these temperature anomalies occur often during the winter months, we’ll keep our eye on short opportunities in the...

The Commodity Report

Hershey’s Warns About Cocoa Inflation // Latest CTA-Flow Forecast

Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our...

The Commodity Report