Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

<ul><li>Fund managers recently reduced their broad commodity position as well as energy position, compared to last month, according to the latest BofA survey.</li><li>Compared to the long-term z-score, fund managers are now heavily under-positioned in energy but close to neutral positioned in broad commodities.</li><li>In a recent note, Goldman Sachs explained their views about commodities if inflation would re-accelerate again - or in detail beat the market estimates and lead to an inflation upside surprise.</li></ul>

Fund managers recently reduced their broad commodity position as well as energy position, compared to last month, according to the latest BofA survey.Compared to the long-term z-score, fund managers are now heavily under-positioned in energy but close to neutral positioned in broad commodities.In a recent note, Goldman Sachs explained their views about commodities if inflation would re-accelerate again - or in detail beat the market estimates and lead to an inflation upside surprise.

<ul><li>Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls Another friendly reminder that positioning in copper remains super speculative bullish - aka, there is much room for speculators to reduce their bullish bets again.</li><li>The same can be said for gold and copper, but not for crude oil.</li><li>Once again, there seems to be less demand than people realize - especially from China.</li></ul>

Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls Another friendly reminder that positioning in copper remains super speculative bullish - aka, there is much room for speculators to reduce their bullish bets again.The same can be said for gold and copper, but not for crude oil.Once again, there seems to be less demand than people realize - especially from China.

Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls & Tailrisk Secular Inflation

<ul><li>Unpredictable Corn Supply from South America The grain supply from South America, especially corn, is among the most unpredictable globally.</li><li>During the 2022-23 season, Argentina's corn production dropped by nearly 29% due to drought, but then surged by 26% in the 2023-24 season, influenced by the El Niño phenomenon.</li><li>Similarly, favorable weather conditions boosted Brazil's corn production by approximately 17% in 2022-23. However, in 2023-24, it declined by 16% due to varying weather patterns.</li></ul>

Unpredictable Corn Supply from South America The grain supply from South America, especially corn, is among the most unpredictable globally.During the 2022-23 season, Argentina's corn production dropped by nearly 29% due to drought, but then surged by 26% in the 2023-24 season, influenced by the El Niño phenomenon.Similarly, favorable weather conditions boosted Brazil's corn production by approximately 17% in 2022-23. However, in 2023-24, it declined by 16% due to varying weather patterns.

Why China loves Gold & a Beautiful Setup in Bitcoin

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

<ul><li>The Holy Grail of Commodity Trading? If there is a holy grail of commodity trading, I would say it’s becoming a master in reading the movements in the futures forward curve.</li><li>Knowing how futures contracts change and how the curve shifts from contango to backwardation, and vice versa, gives commodity traders a lot of useful info about the physical supply and demand.</li><li>While many market participants argue about the meaning and definition of backwardation and contango, the direction in which the spreads are actually moving is far more important to us.</li></ul>

The Holy Grail of Commodity Trading? If there is a holy grail of commodity trading, I would say it’s becoming a master in reading the movements in the futures forward curve.Knowing how futures contracts change and how the curve shifts from contango to backwardation, and vice versa, gives commodity traders a lot of useful info about the physical supply and demand.While many market participants argue about the meaning and definition of backwardation and contango, the direction in which the spreads are actually moving is far more important to us.

The Holy Grail of Commodity Trading // Shipping Rates Explosion

<ul><li>Expectations of an "above-normal" monsoon in 2024 currently help to keep prices for commodities that are in large parts grown in India under control.</li><li>That includes rice as well as sugar prices.</li><li>According to the IRI’s latest ENSO forecast, La Niña becomes the most probable category in Aug-Oct, 2024 through Jan-Mar, 2025.</li></ul>

Expectations of an "above-normal" monsoon in 2024 currently help to keep prices for commodities that are in large parts grown in India under control.That includes rice as well as sugar prices.According to the IRI’s latest ENSO forecast, La Niña becomes the most probable category in Aug-Oct, 2024 through Jan-Mar, 2025.

This Is How Fund Managers Can Close Their Research Gap in Agricultural Commodities

The Commodity Report
Data-Driven Commodity Research
• The Commodity Report

Fund Managers Reduce Commodities Again

Fund managers recently reduced their broad commodity position as well as energy position, compared to last month, according to the latest BofA survey.

The Commodity Report

Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls & Tailrisk Secular Inflation

Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls Another friendly reminder that positioning in copper remains super speculative bullish - aka, there is much room...

The Commodity Report

Why China loves Gold & a Beautiful Setup in Bitcoin

Unpredictable Corn Supply from South America The grain supply from South America, especially corn, is among the most unpredictable globally.

The Commodity Report

The Holy Grail of Commodity Trading // Shipping Rates Explosion

The Holy Grail of Commodity Trading? If there is a holy grail of commodity trading, I would say it’s becoming a master in reading the movements in...

The Commodity Report

This Is How Fund Managers Can Close Their Research Gap in Agricultural Commodities

Expectations of an "above-normal" monsoon in 2024 currently help to keep prices for commodities that are in large parts grown in India under control.

The Commodity Report