Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>According to the latest BofA fund manager survey, investors continue to sell commodities.</li><li>Allocation-wise we’re now back at levels we were at the beginning of the pandemic back in 2020.</li><li>Long commodities is now a contrarian trade again.</li></ul>

According to the latest BofA fund manager survey, investors continue to sell commodities.Allocation-wise we’re now back at levels we were at the beginning of the pandemic back in 2020.Long commodities is now a contrarian trade again.

Fund Managers Hate Commodities // EU Deforestation Law Disaster

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The FOMC meeting is upon us later today, and that calls for us to publish another short and concise chart-book of asset performances around the first Fed cuts in a historical context.</li><li>Consensus is more or less split evenly between 25 and 50 bps, but there are a few pockets in asset space that performs for (at least) the next couple of weeks regardless of the outcome today if you are to trust history.</li><li>The format is a BUNCH of charts, with short and concise text – so scroll through and enjoy!</li></ul>

The FOMC meeting is upon us later today, and that calls for us to publish another short and concise chart-book of asset performances around the first Fed cuts in a historical context.Consensus is more or less split evenly between 25 and 50 bps, but there are a few pockets in asset space that performs for (at least) the next couple of weeks regardless of the outcome today if you are to trust history.The format is a BUNCH of charts, with short and concise text – so scroll through and enjoy!

Central Bank Watch: Key Patterns from Previous Cycles

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.</li>
<li>Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.</li>
<li>As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.
Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.
As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.


SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul>
<li>Take aways: Freight rates dropped for the first time since 2022, signaling a slowdown in factors driving rate increases.</li>
<li>Trade tariffs may have minimal impact on the USD and inflation, with fiscal policies playing a larger role.</li>
<li>A BRICS monetary union could create instability, while Trump’s policies may push the U.S. toward economic risks.</li>
</ul>


Take aways: Freight rates dropped for the first time since 2022, signaling a slowdown in factors driving rate increases.
Trade tariffs may have minimal impact on the USD and inflation, with fiscal policies playing a larger role.
A BRICS monetary union could create instability, while Trump’s policies may push the U.S. toward economic risks.


The Drill: The Party Seems Over In Freight Rates

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Good morning from Copenhagen.</li><li>It’s make-or-break this week with Powell taking the stage on Wednesday to reveal whether the rumors from Nick Timiraos about the Fed considering a 50bps cut were actually true after all.</li><li>Markets have been desperately hoping for the 50bps cut, as evidenced by the price action where Fixed Income is being bought regardless of the economic news.</li></ul>

Good morning from Copenhagen.It’s make-or-break this week with Powell taking the stage on Wednesday to reveal whether the rumors from Nick Timiraos about the Fed considering a 50bps cut were actually true after all.Markets have been desperately hoping for the 50bps cut, as evidenced by the price action where Fixed Income is being bought regardless of the economic news.

The Week at a Glance – Is a 50bps Cut Good if Paired with Economic Weakness?

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Fund Managers Hate Commodities // EU Deforestation Law Disaster

According to the latest BofA fund manager survey, investors continue to sell commodities. Allocation-wise we’re now back at levels we were at the...

The Commodity Report

Central Bank Watch: Key Patterns from Previous Cycles

The FOMC meeting is upon us later today, and that calls for us to publish another short and concise chart-book of asset performances around the...

Steno Research

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

$SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track if Below 5783. Still Neutral, prefer to sell...

Vermilion Research

The Drill: The Party Seems Over In Freight Rates

Take aways:Freight rates dropped for the first time since 2022, signaling a slowdown in factors driving rate increases. Trade tariffs may have...

Steno Research

The Week at a Glance – Is a 50bps Cut Good if Paired with Economic Weakness?

Good morning from Copenhagen. It’s make-or-break this week with Powell taking the stage on Wednesday to reveal whether the rumors from Nick...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)