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Data-Driven Commodity Research

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<ul><li>USDA on Tuesday pegged the 2022-2023 U.S. orange crop at 62.25 million boxes (2.57 million tonnes), an 86-year low and down 23% on the year.</li><li>That is less than 20% of U.S. output in the record 1997-1998 season.</li><li>Florida, which has previously accounted for more than 80% of the annual U.S. orange crop, is seen producing an 87-year low of 16.1 million boxes, down 61% on the year.</li></ul>

USDA on Tuesday pegged the 2022-2023 U.S. orange crop at 62.25 million boxes (2.57 million tonnes), an 86-year low and down 23% on the year.That is less than 20% of U.S. output in the record 1997-1998 season.Florida, which has previously accounted for more than 80% of the annual U.S. orange crop, is seen producing an 87-year low of 16.1 million boxes, down 61% on the year.

Soft commodities dominate 2023 - US orange crop falls to 86-year low

Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The arrival of War so soon after Pestilence or Plague has unsurprisingly led many to speculate (some idly, others determinedly) as to whether the Third of the Four Horseman of the Apocalypse is due soon.</li>
<li>That one of course is Famine. Such speculation has been fuelled by the co-ordinated attempts coming out of Davos last week to blame Russia for an upcoming food shortage.</li>
<li>While the threat of serious shortages, if not outright Famine, is very real indeed, it is only peripherally due to a the current lack of Wheat shipments out of Ukraine</li>
</ul>


The arrival of War so soon after Pestilence or Plague has unsurprisingly led many to speculate (some idly, others determinedly) as to whether the Third of the Four Horseman of the Apocalypse is due soon.
That one of course is Famine. Such speculation has been fuelled by the co-ordinated attempts coming out of Davos last week to blame Russia for an upcoming food shortage.
While the threat of serious shortages, if not outright Famine, is very real indeed, it is only peripherally due to a the current lack of Wheat shipments out of Ukraine


Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As equity indices take a wobble again the Oil price has remained strong after posting both bullish weekly monthly close to new trend highs</li>
<li>The relationship between Oil &amp; stocks is in question because it is unclear whether a higher Oil price in an already inflationary environment is seen as “good” or “bad” </li>
<li>Even in the case that the S&amp;P 500 holds up and becomes correlated properly to Oil, the charts below suggest it will still underperform</li>
</ul>


As equity indices take a wobble again the Oil price has remained strong after posting both bullish weekly monthly close to new trend highs
The relationship between Oil &amp; stocks is in question because it is unclear whether a higher Oil price in an already inflationary environment is seen as “good” or “bad” 
Even in the case that the S&amp;P 500 holds up and becomes correlated properly to Oil, the charts below suggest it will still underperform


Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>The Drill: Could nuclear be the next Trump bet?</li>
<li>This week’s The Drill examines commodities in the aftermath of Trump’s election, where calm has begun to return as risks were initially overestimated.</li>
<li>Nuclear energy is likely an underappreciated theme in the new Trump administration, while tariff threats appear overblown.</li>
</ul>


The Drill: Could nuclear be the next Trump bet?
This week’s The Drill examines commodities in the aftermath of Trump’s election, where calm has begun to return as risks were initially overestimated.
Nuclear energy is likely an underappreciated theme in the new Trump administration, while tariff threats appear overblown.


The Drill: Commodities post Trump election

<ul><li>Latest CTA-Flow Forecast CTA positioning and UBS' flow model indicate slightly bullish momentum for some agriculture commodities as well as energy and on the flip side bearish momentum for precious metals and industrial metals.</li><li>Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our market setups.</li><li>“In currencies, the US dollar gained renewed momentum from Trump’s win, with the 1.7% rise in the DXY index on 6 November the largest one-day advance in two years.</li></ul>

Latest CTA-Flow Forecast CTA positioning and UBS' flow model indicate slightly bullish momentum for some agriculture commodities as well as energy and on the flip side bearish momentum for precious metals and industrial metals.Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our market setups.“In currencies, the US dollar gained renewed momentum from Trump’s win, with the 1.7% rise in the DXY index on 6 November the largest one-day advance in two years.

Hershey’s Warns About Cocoa Inflation // Latest CTA-Flow Forecast

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Soft commodities dominate 2023 - US orange crop falls to 86-year low

USDA on Tuesday pegged the 2022-2023 U.S. orange crop at 62.25 million boxes (2.57 million tonnes), an 86-year low and down 23% on the year.

The Commodity Report

The Third Horseman

The arrival of War so soon after Pestilence or Plague has unsurprisingly led many to speculate (some idly, others determinedly) as to whether the...

Mark Tinker

Long-Short Trades: Oil Versus Stocks

Despite the volatility in equity markets, the Oil price remains in a strong uptrend as is break higher. The relationship is questionable in this...

Shyam Devani

The Drill: Commodities post Trump election

The Drill: Could nuclear be the next Trump bet? This week’s The Drill examines commodities in the aftermath of Trump’s election, where calm has...

Steno Research

Hershey’s Warns About Cocoa Inflation // Latest CTA-Flow Forecast

Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our...

The Commodity Report

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