Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Chair Powell decided to maintain Fed fund rates at 5.25%-5.5% sticking to the much expected higher for longer strategy given the reverse direction of travel on rates.</li>
<li>Forget rate cuts. Those hopes are diminishing. US prediction markets are pricing a 40% chance of zero rate cuts this year.</li>
<li>Nonfarm Payroll numbers tomorrow will hint at the path of interest rate travel for the rest of the year. Continued strength will melt hopes of rate cuts further.</li>
</ul>


Chair Powell decided to maintain Fed fund rates at 5.25%-5.5% sticking to the much expected higher for longer strategy given the reverse direction of travel on rates.
Forget rate cuts. Those hopes are diminishing. US prediction markets are pricing a 40% chance of zero rate cuts this year.
Nonfarm Payroll numbers tomorrow will hint at the path of interest rate travel for the rest of the year. Continued strength will melt hopes of rate cuts further.


Strong US Payroll Will Completely Crush Rate Cut Hopes

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback.</li>
<li>Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&amp;P 500 due to a multitude of reasons</li>
<li>We view the latest pullback to 100-day MA on SPX as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market. Pullbacks to the 100-day provided ideal entry points throughout the 2021 bull market</li>
</ul>


While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback.
Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&amp;P 500 due to a multitude of reasons
We view the latest pullback to 100-day MA on SPX as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market. Pullbacks to the 100-day provided ideal entry points throughout the 2021 bull market


Are the Lows "In" For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Energy markets in Europe still fragile. A hot summer and manufacturing rebound could set prices going.</li><li>Manufacturing cycle is improving everywhere but in Germany. Cost-push inflation showing up in drilling now</li><li>This week we want to talk about the ingredients needed for another summer of exploding electricity and gas prices.</li></ul>

Energy markets in Europe still fragile. A hot summer and manufacturing rebound could set prices going.Manufacturing cycle is improving everywhere but in Germany. Cost-push inflation showing up in drilling nowThis week we want to talk about the ingredients needed for another summer of exploding electricity and gas prices.

Energy Cable: The recipe for another summer of exploding energy prices (in Europe)

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Going forward, Energy could face some selling flows from CTAs according to the latest CTA flow update by UBSS</li><li>UBS 'Contrarian' trades: bullish Agriculturals and LME Lead, bearish Energy, Cocoa, Lean Hogs and Platinum</li><li>UBS 'Go with momentum' trades: bullish Zinc, Aluminium, bearish Cotton, Sugar and Palladium</li></ul>

Going forward, Energy could face some selling flows from CTAs according to the latest CTA flow update by UBSSUBS 'Contrarian' trades: bullish Agriculturals and LME Lead, bearish Energy, Cocoa, Lean Hogs and PlatinumUBS 'Go with momentum' trades: bullish Zinc, Aluminium, bearish Cotton, Sugar and Palladium

Wheat Breakout & Commodity Positioning Update

<ul><li>Fund Managers Are Long Commodities Again Be careful if you’re heavily long commodities at the moment.</li><li>The Bank of America survey usually always works as a great contra sentiment indicator.</li><li>If fund managers are heavily long commodities - prices tend to top out.</li></ul>

Fund Managers Are Long Commodities Again Be careful if you’re heavily long commodities at the moment.The Bank of America survey usually always works as a great contra sentiment indicator.If fund managers are heavily long commodities - prices tend to top out.

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Strong US Payroll Will Completely Crush Rate Cut Hopes

Fed maintains fund rates at 5.25%-5.5%, Despite high inflation Chair Powell stated that rate hikes are unlikely, Continued strength in the labour...

Mint Finance

Are the Lows "In" For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding

Are the Lows "In" for this Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish (RS for defensives $XLP, $XLU, $XLV below October 2023 lows among many other...

Vermilion Research

Energy Cable: The recipe for another summer of exploding energy prices (in Europe)

Energy markets in Europe still fragileA hot summer and manufacturing rebound could set prices goingManufacturing cycle is improving everywhere but...

Steno Research

Wheat Breakout & Commodity Positioning Update

Going forward, Energy could face some selling flows from CTAs according to the latest CTA flow update by UBSS. UBS 'Contrarian' trades: bullish...

The Commodity Report

Fund Managers Are Long Commodities Again

Fund Managers Are Long Commodities Again Be careful if you’re heavily long commodities at the moment. The Bank of America survey usually always...

The Commodity Report

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