Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

Korean Air Lines Co., Ltd. operates air transportation services.  The Company's services include passenger and cargo transportation, aircraft maintenance, and air catering.  Korean Air Lines provides domestic and international airline services.

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 2Q 2025.</li>
<li>Among the 38 holdcos/opcos, there have been several pairs that have resulted in significant price ratio divergence which could provide trading opportunities in terms of their pricing gaps closing reversal.</li>
<li>Given the resumption in short selling in Korea, there is going to be a lot more interest in pair trades in Korea, especially among the major Korean holdcos/opcos. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 2Q 2025.
Among the 38 holdcos/opcos, there have been several pairs that have resulted in significant price ratio divergence which could provide trading opportunities in terms of their pricing gaps closing reversal.
Given the resumption in short selling in Korea, there is going to be a lot more interest in pair trades in Korea, especially among the major Korean holdcos/opcos. 


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2025

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>
Short selling in all stocks in South Korea will resume from 31 March 2025. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)</a> is approaching the overboughtarea according to our models.</li>
<li>If the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> can rise for another week, it would be perfectly ripe for a large, high probability SHORT trade.</li>
<li>The probability of WEEKLY reversal in the range between the last Close (355) and the 363 resistance limit is between 50% and 75%, pretty high.</li>
</ul>



Short selling in all stocks in South Korea will resume from 31 March 2025. The KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) is approaching the overboughtarea according to our models.
If the KOSPI 200 can rise for another week, it would be perfectly ripe for a large, high probability SHORT trade.
The probability of WEEKLY reversal in the range between the last Close (355) and the 363 resistance limit is between 50% and 75%, pretty high.


Short Selling Resumes in Korea Just as the KOSPI 200 Braces for Pullback (Perfect Timing!)

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Hanwha Corporation imports and exports petrochemicals, machinery, automotives, electronics, and steel.  The Company also produces explosives for the defense and construction industries.  In addition, Hanwha manufactures automotive airbag inflators and telecommunication equipment, such as wireless phones and provides financial services through its subsidiaries.

<ul>
<li>The chances of a Hanwha Corp-Hanwha Energy merger just dropped significantly. With the brothers now owning 43%, the merger's effectively off.</li>
<li>The three brothers face a KRW 200B gift tax bill and need liquidity. They’ll raise cash via Hanwha Energy’s IPO, with the youngest brother set to sell a 10% stake.</li>
<li>Hanwha Corp will likely fund its Hanwha Aerospace rights issue through a rights offering, using KRW 1.3 trillion from Hanwha Energy, after shutting down merger rumors.</li>
</ul>


The chances of a Hanwha Corp-Hanwha Energy merger just dropped significantly. With the brothers now owning 43%, the merger's effectively off.
The three brothers face a KRW 200B gift tax bill and need liquidity. They’ll raise cash via Hanwha Energy’s IPO, with the youngest brother set to sell a 10% stake.
Hanwha Corp will likely fund its Hanwha Aerospace rights issue through a rights offering, using KRW 1.3 trillion from Hanwha Energy, after shutting down merger rumors.


Hanwha's Surprise Gift Disclosure: Three Major Takeaways

Equity Capital Markets

Hanwha Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Hanwha Corp’s chances of raising 1T KRW without a capital call are slim, likely channeling Hanwha Energy’s 1.3T KRW into Hanwha Corp intead of Hanwha Aero.</li>
<li>A shareholder-allotted rights issue from Hanwha Corp looks likely, and with short-selling resumption, it sets up a clean arbitrage play with low risk before the official announcement.</li>
<li>Timing is key—Hanwha’s using debt for now, but likely won’t delay long. Expect Hanwha Corp’s rights issue to follow Hanwha Aero’s, probably between June and July.</li>
</ul>


Hanwha Corp’s chances of raising 1T KRW without a capital call are slim, likely channeling Hanwha Energy’s 1.3T KRW into Hanwha Corp intead of Hanwha Aero.
A shareholder-allotted rights issue from Hanwha Corp looks likely, and with short-selling resumption, it sets up a clean arbitrage play with low risk before the official announcement.
Timing is key—Hanwha’s using debt for now, but likely won’t delay long. Expect Hanwha Corp’s rights issue to follow Hanwha Aero’s, probably between June and July.


The Hidden Play in Hanwha’s Noisy Stake Reshuffling: Hanwha Corp’s Rights Issue

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
Central Bank Rate Decisions in Australia, India, and South Korea.</li>
<li>
Tariffs: US reciprocal tariffs effective from 2 April; secondary tariffs are now a factor.</li>
<li>
Holidays: Good Friday is an exchange holiday in Hong Kong, Australia, India, and the US. Several other national holidays throughout the region.</li>
</ul>



Central Bank Rate Decisions in Australia, India, and South Korea.

Tariffs: US reciprocal tariffs effective from 2 April; secondary tariffs are now a factor.

Holidays: Good Friday is an exchange holiday in Hong Kong, Australia, India, and the US. Several other national holidays throughout the region.


South Korea
Insights on South Korea

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2025

In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in...

Douglas Kim

Short Selling Resumes in Korea Just as the KOSPI 200 Braces for Pullback (Perfect Timing!)

The week after this insight was published, the KOSPI 200 started to fall (that was one of the possible scenarios analyzed). This Monday, as short...

Nico Rosti

Hanwha's Surprise Gift Disclosure: Three Major Takeaways

This post covers 3 major takeaways from Hanwha’s surprise gift disclosure, breaking down the key implications for the company, the family’s stake...

Sanghyun Park

The Hidden Play in Hanwha’s Noisy Stake Reshuffling: Hanwha Corp’s Rights Issue

Hanwha’s shake-up—starting with Ocean’s stake shuffle and Aerospace’s rights issue—was always about locking in family control. That got sealed...

Sanghyun Park

The Month Ahead: Key Events in April

Central banks in Australia, India, and South Korea make rate decisions; US implements reciprocal tariffs on April 2; Good Friday holiday in Hong...

Gaudenz Schneider

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2025

In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in...

Douglas Kim

Short Selling Resumes in Korea Just as the KOSPI 200 Braces for Pullback (Perfect Timing!)

The week after this insight was published, the KOSPI 200 started to fall (that was one of the possible scenarios analyzed). This Monday, as short...

Nico Rosti

Hanwha's Surprise Gift Disclosure: Three Major Takeaways

This post covers 3 major takeaways from Hanwha’s surprise gift disclosure, breaking down the key implications for the company, the family’s stake...

Sanghyun Park

The Hidden Play in Hanwha’s Noisy Stake Reshuffling: Hanwha Corp’s Rights Issue

Hanwha’s shake-up—starting with Ocean’s stake shuffle and Aerospace’s rights issue—was always about locking in family control. That got sealed...

Sanghyun Park

The Month Ahead: Key Events in April

​Central banks in Australia, India, and South Korea make rate decisions; US implements reciprocal tariffs on April 2; Good Friday holiday in Hong...

Gaudenz Schneider

Central banks in Australia, India, and South Korea make rate decisions; US implements reciprocal tariffs on April 2; Good Friday holiday in Hong...