Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to the “Week at a Glance,” where we examine the key releases and themes for the week ahead through the lens of macro trading.</li><li>China has reduced the 7-day repo rate by 10 basis points, following up with a cut in the loan prime rate.</li><li>This move mirrors the strategy from June 13, 2023.</li></ul>

Welcome to the “Week at a Glance,” where we examine the key releases and themes for the week ahead through the lens of macro trading.China has reduced the 7-day repo rate by 10 basis points, following up with a cut in the loan prime rate.This move mirrors the strategy from June 13, 2023.

The Week At Glance: A look at US Cycle indicators. You sure consensus is right?

Political Analyst, Heteronomics

Alastair Newton

Political Analyst

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul><li>Donald Trump's running mate, JD Vance, discussed economic policy during his nomination speech.</li><li>Further investigation provides some insight into what these policies might look like in practice.</li><li>However, understanding the specifics of a potential 'Trump Trade' policy remains difficult.</li></ul>

Donald Trump's running mate, JD Vance, discussed economic policy during his nomination speech.Further investigation provides some insight into what these policies might look like in practice.However, understanding the specifics of a potential 'Trump Trade' policy remains difficult.

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

<ul>
<li>Malaysia’s strong GDP growth in 2Q24 was driven by a broad-based recovery across major economic sectors, with manufacturing making a turnaround after a difficult 2023. </li>
<li>The labour market, domestic demand, and external sector indicators also bode well for the country's growth prospects for the remainder of the year. </li>
<li>Pending the release of the confirmed GDP figures, we expect full-year growth of around 4.8%, up 25bps from our previous view. </li>
</ul>


Malaysia’s strong GDP growth in 2Q24 was driven by a broad-based recovery across major economic sectors, with manufacturing making a turnaround after a difficult 2023. 
The labour market, domestic demand, and external sector indicators also bode well for the country's growth prospects for the remainder of the year. 
Pending the release of the confirmed GDP figures, we expect full-year growth of around 4.8%, up 25bps from our previous view. 


Malaysia Economics: Comeback with Strong 2Q24 GDP Growth

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>24 days after his catastrophic debate, and 29 days before the Democratic convention, President Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed VP Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. </li>
<li>The latest polls showed Trump leading Biden by 3pp in the average of polls, including big leads in all seven battleground states. Harris is marginally closer in match-ups against Trump. </li>
<li>Trump-Vance have momentum after RNC. To be competitive, Harris (if endorsed by DNC) would need to pick an exciting, moderate candidate (eg, PA governor Shapiro) and hew to the centre.</li>
</ul>


24 days after his catastrophic debate, and 29 days before the Democratic convention, President Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed VP Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. 
The latest polls showed Trump leading Biden by 3pp in the average of polls, including big leads in all seven battleground states. Harris is marginally closer in match-ups against Trump. 
Trump-Vance have momentum after RNC. To be competitive, Harris (if endorsed by DNC) would need to pick an exciting, moderate candidate (eg, PA governor Shapiro) and hew to the centre.


Biden Leaves Presidential Race, Endorses VP Harris; Contest to Tighten if Dems Unite

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<ul>
<li>The media are universal in their belief that a second Trump presidency will produce higher inflation. Fed Chairman Powell would serve the remaining segment of his current term if elected. </li>
<li>A further reduction in corporation tax and making the 2017 personal income tax cuts permanent are key fiscal policy goals of President Trump if elected for a second term.</li>
<li>Import substitution will raise inflation pressures unless there is supply-side transformation in the economy. Protectionism will reduce capital flows to the detriment of long-term interest rates and dollar exchange rate.</li>
</ul>


The media are universal in their belief that a second Trump presidency will produce higher inflation. Fed Chairman Powell would serve the remaining segment of his current term if elected. 
A further reduction in corporation tax and making the 2017 personal income tax cuts permanent are key fiscal policy goals of President Trump if elected for a second term.
Import substitution will raise inflation pressures unless there is supply-side transformation in the economy. Protectionism will reduce capital flows to the detriment of long-term interest rates and dollar exchange rate.


US Financial Markets: Preparing for a Changing of the Guard