Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Greetings from Copenhagen! Alas, it seems like there are quite a few bears out there who have been infected with recession vibes, thus the doctor has ordered some medicine for the patients which we’ll gladly provide to the likes of Jan Hatzius et. al..</li><li>Firstly, the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index is at its highest since early 2022 and far far away from anything that smells like recession. </li><li>Real GDP y/y should stay above 2% and the WEI is currently hinting at 3% real GDP growth.</li></ul>

Greetings from Copenhagen! Alas, it seems like there are quite a few bears out there who have been infected with recession vibes, thus the doctor has ordered some medicine for the patients which we’ll gladly provide to the likes of Jan Hatzius et. al..Firstly, the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index is at its highest since early 2022 and far far away from anything that smells like recession. Real GDP y/y should stay above 2% and the WEI is currently hinting at 3% real GDP growth.

Macro Watch: 5 Charts That’ll Cure Your Recession Blues!

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket.</li><li>As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of both baskets and explain the rationale behind each.</li><li>We are updating the baskets regularly based on the political proposals of the two candidates.</li></ul>

We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket.As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of both baskets and explain the rationale behind each.We are updating the baskets regularly based on the political proposals of the two candidates.

Equity Watch: The Trump versus Biden Basket

<ul><li>Takeaways: Copper diverging from its fundamentals - we continue to hold a bearish outlook as prices and positioning appear disconnected from macro variables</li><li>Inventories in the US are building</li><li>Shipping lanes are easing, and our Trump basket gives you the green light to continue in crude et. al. </li></ul>

Takeaways: Copper diverging from its fundamentals - we continue to hold a bearish outlook as prices and positioning appear disconnected from macro variablesInventories in the US are buildingShipping lanes are easing, and our Trump basket gives you the green light to continue in crude et. al. 

Energy Cable: Copper Prices Are Too High!

<ul><li>Welcome to this short labor market watch on the back of this week’s NFIB and CPI numbers.</li><li>Currently the labor market has softened considerably from tight conditions in 2022, yet there is still some time before this slowdown potentially leads to a recession.</li><li>From the NFIB numbers we already got more hints of the deflationary trends suggested by this month’s CPI report as price plans continue their decrease.</li></ul>

Welcome to this short labor market watch on the back of this week’s NFIB and CPI numbers.Currently the labor market has softened considerably from tight conditions in 2022, yet there is still some time before this slowdown potentially leads to a recession.From the NFIB numbers we already got more hints of the deflationary trends suggested by this month’s CPI report as price plans continue their decrease.

Labor Watch: This doesn’t exactly scream recession (yet) …

<ul>
<li>Takeaways: More pressures on freight rates… Still no spillover to PPI/CPI. Hedge funds appear to have an appetite for crude oil, but not so much for energy stocks. Macro data more tilted towards normalization rather than weakening.</li>
<li>Greetings from a cloudy Copenhagen and welcome to another Energy Cable, following last week’s weak-ish ISM prints. Ready for more turmoil in shipping?</li>
<li>A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S has announced that extreme weather conditions, including a storm surge along the South African coast, are expected to cause shipping delays.</li>
</ul>


Takeaways: More pressures on freight rates… Still no spillover to PPI/CPI. Hedge funds appear to have an appetite for crude oil, but not so much for energy stocks. Macro data more tilted towards normalization rather than weakening.
Greetings from a cloudy Copenhagen and welcome to another Energy Cable, following last week’s weak-ish ISM prints. Ready for more turmoil in shipping?
A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S has announced that extreme weather conditions, including a storm surge along the South African coast, are expected to cause shipping delays.


Energy Cable: When it Rains, It Pours in Shipping

Ulrik contributes to Steno Signals and the Watch Series on all things related to markets. He is enrolled at the Copenhagen Business School where he studies Applied Economics and Finance and has prior to that worked at the Danish Consulate General in Munich as well as the German Chamber of Commerce in Copenhagen.

Ulrik Simmelholt
Junior Finance Analyst
• Steno Research

Macro Watch: 5 Charts That’ll Cure Your Recession Blues!

bank earnings are exceeding expectations widely, and traditionally, bank earnings are a precursor to credit cycle trends as evidenced by the...

Steno Research

Equity Watch: The Trump versus Biden Basket

We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket. As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of...

Steno Research

Energy Cable: Copper Prices Are Too High!

This week, we will take a look at copper, which has rebounded in July, and also discuss freight rates, where calmer weather at the Cape of Good...

Steno Research

Labor Watch: This doesn’t exactly scream recession (yet) …

Take aways: This currently looks more like normalization than weakening More fuel to the story of an income driven cycleThe productivity /...

Steno Research

Energy Cable: When it Rains, It Pours in Shipping

Takeaways:More pressures on freight rates… Still no spillover to PPI/CPIHedge funds appear to have an appetite for crude oil, but not so much for...

Steno Research